Impact of climate change on olive suitability areas

Öz

The impact of climate change is being felt more and more by everyone. This effect is particularly observed in crop production in agricultural areas. The region where olive cultivation is most widespread and where the effects of climate change are felt the most is the Mediterranean region. Olive cultivation in Türkiye is mostly carried out in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions. This study aims to determine the changes in olive suitability areas according to climate change projections. Three different global climate models (HadGEM2-ES, GFDL-ESM2M and CSIRO) were used in the study. The average of each dataset was calculated according to bioclimatic parameters. WorldClim data was used as reference climate data. The studies were conducted with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 projection data. Data for three different periods-the reference period, the years of 2050s and 2080s- were used. Maxent and BioClim species distribution models were used to produce suitability maps for olive. In the BioClim Model, in the RCP 4.5 2050, RCP 4.5 2080, RCP 8.5 2080 and RCP 8.5 2050 periods, there was a decrease of 8%, 18.6%, 20% and 23.4% in very suitable areas compared to the reference period, respectively. In the Maxent model, there was a decrease of 59.3%, 40.6%, 69.7% and 5.8% in very suitable areas in RCP 4.5 2050, RCP 4.5 2080, RCP 8.5 2080 and RCP 8.5 2050, respectively, compared to the reference period. The mean AUC value for olive was 0.874 with a standard deviation of 0.002. The AUC test value obtained shows that the model is sensitive and descriptive for olives.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Olive
• Climate Change
• Crop Suitability

Kaynakça

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