Is There A Causality Link Between Indirect Taxes, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in OECD Member Countries and Türkiye?

Year 2025, Volume: 33 Issue: 65, 449 - 480, 17.07.2025

Selçuk Çağrı Esener , Ahmet Burçin Yereli

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.03.21

Abstract

This study examines the causal relationship between indirect taxes, key indicators of taxes on goods and services, foreign direct investments and economic growth. The bootstrap panel Granger causality method is deemed the ideal approach to eliminate the risk of not capturing the temporal and spatial links between fiscal and monetary policies. Using a panel dataset of 19 OECD countries from 1974 to 2022, the study attempts to identify potential effects through bidirectional causality modelling. While many findings align with existing literature, significant contrary results have also been observed. Notably, instead of the anticipated positive impact, FDIs have exhibited a strong opposite effect on GDP over the half-century period. In other words, while GDP levels attract foreign direct investment, FDIs have not significantly affected GDP levels in all but one country. For Türkiye, descriptive and empirical analyses reveal that indirect taxation is a bidirectional cause of FDIs and a unidirectional cause of growth values. No direct link was found between foreign capital and GDP; however, a connection was identified between GDP and foreign investment.

Keywords

Fiscal Policy , Economic Growth , Indirect Taxes , Foreign Direct Investment , Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality

OECD Üyesi Ülkeler ve Türkiye’de Dolaylı Vergiler, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arası Nedensellik İlişkisi Mevcut Mu?

Abstract

Bu çalışma, dolaylı vergilerin temel göstergesi sayılan mal ve hizmetler üzerinden alınan vergiler, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve iktisadi büyüme arası nedensellik ilişkisi olup olmadığını incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Söz konusu mali ve iktisadi etkileşimlerin zaman ve mekân linklerini yakalayabilmek için bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik metodunun ideal yöntem olduğu değerlendirilmiştir. 1974-2022 yılları arasında 19 OECD ülkesinden oluşan panel veri setinde, çift yönlü nedensellik modellemeleriyle değişkenlerin olası etkileri tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Sonuçların önemli kısmı literatürle uyumlu olsa dahi aksi yönde kuvvetli bulgulara da rastlanmıştır. Bunların en dikkat çekici olanı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların GSYİH üzerinde beklenen etkisi yerine yarım asırlık süreçte bunun tam aksi yönde kuvvetli bir etkiyle karşılaşılmış olmasıdır. Bir diğer deyişle, GSYİH seviyelerinin yarattığı güven yabancı sermayeyi ülkeye çekmekteyken doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar GSYİH seviyeleri üzerinde bir ülke hariç anlamlı istatistiksel etki yaratmamıştır. Betimsel ve ampirik sınamalardan yararlanılarak yapılan çıkarsamalara göre, çalışmada, Türkiye için; dolaylı vergilemenin doğrudan yabancı yatırımların çift yönlü; büyüme değerlerinin tek yönlü nedeni olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dış sermayeden GSYİH’e doğru herhangi bir link bulunamazken GSYİH’ten dış yatırımlara doğru ise bir bağıntı mevcuttur.

Keywords

Maliye Politikası , Ekonomik Büyüme , Dolaylı Vergiler , Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar , Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik

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