The Effect of International Financial Capital Inflow on the Banking Sector Fragility Index: The Case of Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 33 Issue: 65, 481 - 507, 17.07.2025

Hüsrev Said Nurullah Sarıay

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.03.22

Abstract

Financial liberalisation refers to practices in which public authorities revise and remove restrictions on the financial system. Financial liberalisation removes obstacles to financial capital inflow, which also affects the banking sector. Financial liberalisation efforts in Turkey were completed with the liberalisation of capital flows in 1989. In this context, the effect of financial capital inflow on banking sector fragility was analysed using quarterly data, employing the ARDL Bounds test and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Since quarterly data were unavailable before 1992, the study period was defined as 1992Q1-2024Q4. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that financial capital inflow initially reduces the banking sector's fragility index but increases it in the long term. As a result of the Toda-Yamamoto test, it was determined that there is a causal relationship between capital inflow and the banking sector fragility index.

Keywords

Financial Capital Inflow , Banking Sector Fragility , ARDL

Uluslararası Finansal Sermaye Girişinin Bankacılık Sektörü Kırılganlık Endeksine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Finansal serbestleşme, kamu otoritelerinin finansal sisteme yönelik kısıtlamaları kaldırdıkları, revize edici uygulamaları ifade etmektedir. Finansal serbestleşmeyle finansal sermaye girişine yönelik engeller kaldırılmakta, bu durum bankacılık sektörünü de etkilenmektedir. Türkiye’de finansal serbestleşme çalışmaları 1989’da sermaye akımlarının serbestleştirilmesiyle tamamlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda, çeyrek dönemlik veriler kullanılarak finansal sermaye girişinin bankacılık sektörü kırılganlığına etkisi ARDL Sınır testi ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testiyle analiz edilmiştir. 1992 öncesinde çeyreklik veri bulunamadığından çalışma dönemi 1992Q1-2024Q4 olarak belirlenmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, finansal sermaye girişinin kısa dönemde bankacılık sektörü kırılganlık endeksini azalttığı, uzun dönemde artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto testi sonucunda, finansal sermaye girişinden bankacılık sektörü kırılganlık endeksine doğru nedenselliğin olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Finansal Serbestleşme , Bankacılık Sektörü Kırılganlığı , ARDL

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