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Sosyal Güvenlik Üyeliği ve Tasarruf: Türkiye Uygulaması

Year 2020, , 257 - 275, 25.01.2020

Çağaçan Değer , Elif Erer

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.15

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye’de tasarruf oranlarında kambur bir profil olup olmadığını inceleyerek tasarrufun mikro temellerini araştırmaktadır. Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketleri kullanılarak bir yapay panel veri seti oluşturulmuştur. Daha sonra yaş-kohort-zaman ayrıştırması ile Türkiye’de tasarruf oranının yaşa bağlı davranışı incelenmiştir. Analiz, sosyal güvenlik sistemi üyeliğine göre oluşturulan alt örneklemler için tekrarlanmıştır. Kesikli inceleme de yapılarak analiz derinleştirilmiştir. Kambur bir profilin varlığı teyid edilmiştir fakat kambur profilin varlığı ile sosyal güvenlik üyeliği arasında düzenli bir bağıntı gözlemlenmemiştir.

Keywords

Tasarruf Davranışı Tasarrufun Yaşam Döngüsü Modelleri Panel Veri Modelleri

References

  • Abdelhalek, T. & F. Arestoff & H. el M. de Freitas & S. Mage (2010), “A Microeconometric Analysis of Household Savings Determinants in Morocco”, African Review of Money, Finance and Banking, 7-27.
  • Aksoy, F. (2016), “Tasarrufun Belirleyicileri: Tüketici ve Ticari Kredilere İlişkin Bulgular”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Dış İlişkiler Genel Müdürlüğü Uzmanlık Yeterlik Tezi, <https://tinyurl.com/yar33d3o>, 03.07.2018.
  • Aktaş, A. & D. Güner & S. Gürsel & G. Uysal (2012), “Structural Determinants of Household Savings in Turkey: 2003-2008”, BETAM Working Paper Series, 007, Bahçeşehir University, İstanbul, Turkey.
  • Attanasio, O.P. (1998), “Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S. Households”, The Journal of Human Resources, 33(2), 575-609.
  • Auerbach, A.J. & L.J. Kotlikoff (1987), Dynamic Fiscal Policy, Cambridge University Press.
  • Baidoo, S.T. & E. Boateng & M. Amponsah (2018), “Understanding the Determinants of Saving in Gahana: Does Financial Literacy Matter?”, Journal of International Development, 30(5), 886-903.
  • Bebczuk, R. & L. Gasparini & J. Amendolaggine & N. Garbero (2015), “Understanding the Determinants of Household Saving: Micro Evidence for Latin America”, Inter-American Development Bank Technical Note, IDB-TN-843, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Breusch, T.S. & A.R. Pagan (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Brounen, D. & K.G. Koedijk & R.A.J. Pownall (2016), “Household Financial Planning and Savings Behavior”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 69, 95-107.
  • Burney, N.A. & A.H. Khan (1992), “Socio-economic Characteristics and Household Savings: An Analysis of the Households’ Saving Behaviour in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, 31(1), 31-48.
  • Campbell, J.Y. (2006), “Household Finance”, The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1553-1604.
  • Carroll, C.D. (1997), “Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1), 1-55.
  • Ceritoğlu, E. & O. Eren (2014), “The Effects of Demographic and Social Changes on Household Savings in Turkey”, Central Bank Review, 14(3), 15-33.
  • Ceritoğlu, E. (2013), “The Impact of Labour Income Risk on Household Saving Decisions in Turkey”, Review of Economics of the Household, 11, 109-129.
  • Cilasun, S.M. (2009), “Income and Consumption and Saving Behavior of Turkish Households”, Unpublished Dissertation, Middle East Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Deaton, A. (1985), “Panel Data from Time Series of Cross Sections”, Journal of Econometrics, 30(1-2), 109-126.
  • Değer, Ç. (2011), “An Overlapping Generations Analysis of Social Security Reform in Turkey”, Unpublished Dissertation, Middle East Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Denizer, C. & H.C. Wolf (1998), “Household Savings in Transition Economies”, NBER Working Paper, 6457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass.
  • Diamond, P. (1965), “National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model”, American Economic Review, 55 (5), 1126-1150.
  • Duesenberry, J.S. (1949), Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behaviour, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Düzgün, R. (2009), “Türkiye’de Özel Tasarrufun Belirleyicileri”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32, 173-189.
  • Fisher, I. (1930), The Theory of Interest, New York: McMillan.
  • Friedman, M. (1957), A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton University Press.
  • Gibson, J.K. & G.M. Scobie (2001), “Household Saving Behavior in New Zealand: A Cohort Analysis”, Treasury Working Paper Series, 01/08, New Zealand Treasury, Wellington, New Zealand.
  • Harris, M.N. & J. Loundes & E. Webster (2002), “Determinants of Household Saving in Australia”, The Economic Record, 78(241), 207-223.
  • Heckman, J.J. (1979), “Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error”, Econometrica, 47(1), 153-161.
  • Jappelli, T. & M. Padula (2013), “Investment in Financial Literacy and Saving Decisions”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(8), 2779-2792.
  • Jappelli, T. (1999), “The Age Wealth Profile and the Life Cycle Hypothesis: A Cohort Analysis with a Time Series of Cross Section of Italian Households”, The Review of Income and Wealth, 45(1), 57-75.
  • Keynes, J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, MacMillan, London.
  • Kulikov, D. & A. Paabut & K. Staehr (2008), “A Microeconometric Analysis of Household Saving in Estonia: Income, Wealth and Financial Exposure”, Bank of Estonia Working Paper Series, 8/2007, Bank of Estonia, Tallinn, Estonia.
  • Kuznets, S. (1942), Uses of National Income in Peace and War, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.
  • Long, J.S. (1997), Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, Sage Publications, London.
  • Lusardi, A. & O.S. Mitchell (2014), “The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Economic Literature, 52(1), 5-44.
  • Markos, W. (2015), “Determinants and Behaviour of Rural Household Saving: A Case of Dale Woreda, Sidama Zone”, International Journal of Multidisciplinary Advanced Research Trends, 2(3), 1-9.
  • Matur, E.P. & A. Sabuncu & S. Bahçeci (2012), “Determinants of Private Savings and Interaction Between Public and Private Savings in Turkey”, Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 14, 102-125.
  • Modigliani, F. (1966), “The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving, the Demand for Wealth and the Supply of Capital”, Social Research, 33(2), 160-217.
  • Morisset, J. & C. Revoredo (1995), “Savings and Education A Life-Cycle Model Applied to a Panel of 74 Countries”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 1504, World Bank, Washington D.C.
  • Murendo, C. & K. Mutsonziwa (2016), “Financial Literacy and Savings Decisions by Adult Financial Consumers in Zimbabwe”, International Journal of Consumer Studies, 41(1), 95-103.
  • Nagatani, K. (1972), “Life Cycle Saving: Theory and Fact”, The American Economic Review. 62(3), 344-353.
  • Obayelu, O.A. (2013), “Determinants of Savings Rate in Rural Nigeria: A Micro Study of Kwara State”, Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies, 2(1), 2-18.
  • Özcan, K.M. & A. Günay & S. Ertaç (2003), “Determinants of Private Savings Behaviour in Turkey”, Applied Economics, 35(12), 1405-1416.
  • Rehman, H. ur & M. Z. Faridi & F. Bashir (2010), “Households Saving Behaviour in Pakistan: A Case of Multan District”, Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 30(1), 17-29.
  • Rijckeghem, C.V. & M. Üçer (2009), “The Evolution and Determinants of the Turkish Private Saving Rate: What Lessons for Policy?” ERF Research Report Series, 09-01, Economic Research Forum, Giza, Egypt.
  • Snyder, D.W. (1974), “Econometric Studies of Household Saving Behaviour in Developing Countries: A Survey”, The Journal of Development Studies, 10(2), 139-153.
  • Tatlıyer, M. (2017), “Determinants of Private Saving Level: Evidence from Turkey”, Sosyoekonomi, 25(32), 149-167.
  • Tobin, J. (1958), “Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables”, Econometrica, 26(1), 24-36.
  • Toth, M. & D. Lancaric & R. Savov (2015), “Impact of Education on the Financial Literacy: The Case of Slovakia”, Trendy v Podnikani: Business Trends, 5(2), 27-35.

Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case

Year 2020, , 257 - 275, 25.01.2020

Çağaçan Değer , Elif Erer

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.15

Abstract

This study analyses the micro-foundations of the saving behaviour in Turkey, looking for a humpback profile in saving rates. Household Expenditure Surveys are used to construct a pseudo-panel of the saving rate. Then, an age-cohort-period decomposition is undertaken to isolate the age-dependent behaviour of the saving rate in Turkey. The analysis is repeated for sub-samples based on social security status. Further investigation is carried out with truncated regression. Existence of a humpback profile is confirmed, but no systematic link between social security membership and the humpback profile is identified.

Keywords

Saving Behaviour Life Cycle Models of Saving Panel Data Models

References

  • Abdelhalek, T. & F. Arestoff & H. el M. de Freitas & S. Mage (2010), “A Microeconometric Analysis of Household Savings Determinants in Morocco”, African Review of Money, Finance and Banking, 7-27.
  • Aksoy, F. (2016), “Tasarrufun Belirleyicileri: Tüketici ve Ticari Kredilere İlişkin Bulgular”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Dış İlişkiler Genel Müdürlüğü Uzmanlık Yeterlik Tezi, <https://tinyurl.com/yar33d3o>, 03.07.2018.
  • Aktaş, A. & D. Güner & S. Gürsel & G. Uysal (2012), “Structural Determinants of Household Savings in Turkey: 2003-2008”, BETAM Working Paper Series, 007, Bahçeşehir University, İstanbul, Turkey.
  • Attanasio, O.P. (1998), “Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S. Households”, The Journal of Human Resources, 33(2), 575-609.
  • Auerbach, A.J. & L.J. Kotlikoff (1987), Dynamic Fiscal Policy, Cambridge University Press.
  • Baidoo, S.T. & E. Boateng & M. Amponsah (2018), “Understanding the Determinants of Saving in Gahana: Does Financial Literacy Matter?”, Journal of International Development, 30(5), 886-903.
  • Bebczuk, R. & L. Gasparini & J. Amendolaggine & N. Garbero (2015), “Understanding the Determinants of Household Saving: Micro Evidence for Latin America”, Inter-American Development Bank Technical Note, IDB-TN-843, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Breusch, T.S. & A.R. Pagan (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Brounen, D. & K.G. Koedijk & R.A.J. Pownall (2016), “Household Financial Planning and Savings Behavior”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 69, 95-107.
  • Burney, N.A. & A.H. Khan (1992), “Socio-economic Characteristics and Household Savings: An Analysis of the Households’ Saving Behaviour in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, 31(1), 31-48.
  • Campbell, J.Y. (2006), “Household Finance”, The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1553-1604.
  • Carroll, C.D. (1997), “Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1), 1-55.
  • Ceritoğlu, E. & O. Eren (2014), “The Effects of Demographic and Social Changes on Household Savings in Turkey”, Central Bank Review, 14(3), 15-33.
  • Ceritoğlu, E. (2013), “The Impact of Labour Income Risk on Household Saving Decisions in Turkey”, Review of Economics of the Household, 11, 109-129.
  • Cilasun, S.M. (2009), “Income and Consumption and Saving Behavior of Turkish Households”, Unpublished Dissertation, Middle East Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Deaton, A. (1985), “Panel Data from Time Series of Cross Sections”, Journal of Econometrics, 30(1-2), 109-126.
  • Değer, Ç. (2011), “An Overlapping Generations Analysis of Social Security Reform in Turkey”, Unpublished Dissertation, Middle East Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Denizer, C. & H.C. Wolf (1998), “Household Savings in Transition Economies”, NBER Working Paper, 6457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass.
  • Diamond, P. (1965), “National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model”, American Economic Review, 55 (5), 1126-1150.
  • Duesenberry, J.S. (1949), Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behaviour, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Düzgün, R. (2009), “Türkiye’de Özel Tasarrufun Belirleyicileri”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32, 173-189.
  • Fisher, I. (1930), The Theory of Interest, New York: McMillan.
  • Friedman, M. (1957), A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton University Press.
  • Gibson, J.K. & G.M. Scobie (2001), “Household Saving Behavior in New Zealand: A Cohort Analysis”, Treasury Working Paper Series, 01/08, New Zealand Treasury, Wellington, New Zealand.
  • Harris, M.N. & J. Loundes & E. Webster (2002), “Determinants of Household Saving in Australia”, The Economic Record, 78(241), 207-223.
  • Heckman, J.J. (1979), “Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error”, Econometrica, 47(1), 153-161.
  • Jappelli, T. & M. Padula (2013), “Investment in Financial Literacy and Saving Decisions”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(8), 2779-2792.
  • Jappelli, T. (1999), “The Age Wealth Profile and the Life Cycle Hypothesis: A Cohort Analysis with a Time Series of Cross Section of Italian Households”, The Review of Income and Wealth, 45(1), 57-75.
  • Keynes, J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, MacMillan, London.
  • Kulikov, D. & A. Paabut & K. Staehr (2008), “A Microeconometric Analysis of Household Saving in Estonia: Income, Wealth and Financial Exposure”, Bank of Estonia Working Paper Series, 8/2007, Bank of Estonia, Tallinn, Estonia.
  • Kuznets, S. (1942), Uses of National Income in Peace and War, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.
  • Long, J.S. (1997), Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, Sage Publications, London.
  • Lusardi, A. & O.S. Mitchell (2014), “The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Economic Literature, 52(1), 5-44.
  • Markos, W. (2015), “Determinants and Behaviour of Rural Household Saving: A Case of Dale Woreda, Sidama Zone”, International Journal of Multidisciplinary Advanced Research Trends, 2(3), 1-9.
  • Matur, E.P. & A. Sabuncu & S. Bahçeci (2012), “Determinants of Private Savings and Interaction Between Public and Private Savings in Turkey”, Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 14, 102-125.
  • Modigliani, F. (1966), “The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving, the Demand for Wealth and the Supply of Capital”, Social Research, 33(2), 160-217.
  • Morisset, J. & C. Revoredo (1995), “Savings and Education A Life-Cycle Model Applied to a Panel of 74 Countries”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 1504, World Bank, Washington D.C.
  • Murendo, C. & K. Mutsonziwa (2016), “Financial Literacy and Savings Decisions by Adult Financial Consumers in Zimbabwe”, International Journal of Consumer Studies, 41(1), 95-103.
  • Nagatani, K. (1972), “Life Cycle Saving: Theory and Fact”, The American Economic Review. 62(3), 344-353.
  • Obayelu, O.A. (2013), “Determinants of Savings Rate in Rural Nigeria: A Micro Study of Kwara State”, Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies, 2(1), 2-18.
  • Özcan, K.M. & A. Günay & S. Ertaç (2003), “Determinants of Private Savings Behaviour in Turkey”, Applied Economics, 35(12), 1405-1416.
  • Rehman, H. ur & M. Z. Faridi & F. Bashir (2010), “Households Saving Behaviour in Pakistan: A Case of Multan District”, Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 30(1), 17-29.
  • Rijckeghem, C.V. & M. Üçer (2009), “The Evolution and Determinants of the Turkish Private Saving Rate: What Lessons for Policy?” ERF Research Report Series, 09-01, Economic Research Forum, Giza, Egypt.
  • Snyder, D.W. (1974), “Econometric Studies of Household Saving Behaviour in Developing Countries: A Survey”, The Journal of Development Studies, 10(2), 139-153.
  • Tatlıyer, M. (2017), “Determinants of Private Saving Level: Evidence from Turkey”, Sosyoekonomi, 25(32), 149-167.
  • Tobin, J. (1958), “Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables”, Econometrica, 26(1), 24-36.
  • Toth, M. & D. Lancaric & R. Savov (2015), “Impact of Education on the Financial Literacy: The Case of Slovakia”, Trendy v Podnikani: Business Trends, 5(2), 27-35.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Çağaçan Değer 0000-0001-8555-4632

Elif Erer 0000-0002-2238-4602

Publication Date January 25, 2020
Submission Date October 12, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2020

Cite

APA Değer, Ç., & Erer, E. (2020). Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case. Sosyoekonomi, 28(43), 257-275. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.15
AMA Değer Ç, Erer E. Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case. Sosyoekonomi. January 2020;28(43):257-275. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.15
Chicago Değer, Çağaçan, and Elif Erer. “Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case”. Sosyoekonomi 28, no. 43 (January 2020): 257-75. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.15.
EndNote Değer Ç, Erer E (January 1, 2020) Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case. Sosyoekonomi 28 43 257–275.
IEEE Ç. Değer and E. Erer, “Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 43, pp. 257–275, 2020, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.15.
ISNAD Değer, Çağaçan - Erer, Elif. “Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case”. Sosyoekonomi 28/43 (January 2020), 257-275. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.15.
JAMA Değer Ç, Erer E. Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case. Sosyoekonomi. 2020;28:257–275.
MLA Değer, Çağaçan and Elif Erer. “Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 43, 2020, pp. 257-75, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.15.
Vancouver Değer Ç, Erer E. Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case. Sosyoekonomi. 2020;28(43):257-75.