Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns

Fatih Günay; Engin Bayraktaroğlu

doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05

Research Article

Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns

Year 2022, , 91 - 118, 31.01.2022

Fatih Günay , Engin Bayraktaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of interest rate announcements by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Borsa İstanbul tourism index returns. During the period covering 2010-2020, the effects of the CBRT's 20 decrease announcements and eight increase announcements on tourism index daily returns were examined separately using the event study method. Moreover, the BIST100 index was analysed for comparison purposes. According to the study results in which ARs were calculated with the mean adjusted return model, out of 20 announcements of decreases in the interest rate, only 3 showed statistically significant ARs on the event date. This result indicates that tourism investors’ reactions to policy rate announcements are weak and suggests the policy rate does not affect tourism investors' reactions. The findings for the BIST100 support this idea.

Keywords

Index Returns, BIST Tourism, Interest Rates Announcements, CBRT, Event Study

References

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Merkez Bankası Faiz Duyurularının Borsa İstanbul Turizm Endeksi Getirilerine Etkisinin Analizi

Year 2022, , 91 - 118, 31.01.2022

Fatih Günay , Engin Bayraktaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05

Abstract

Bu makale, TCMB'nin açıkladığı faiz kararlarının Borsa İstanbul turizm endeks getirileri üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada olay çalışması yöntemiyle 2010-2020 döneminde TCMB’nin açıkladığı 20 faiz indirim ve 8 faiz artırım kararının turizm endeksi günlük getirilerine etkisi ayrı ayrı incelenmiştir. Ayrıca, karşılaştırma amacıyla BIST100 endeksi incelenmiştir. Ortalama getiri modeliyle anormal getirilerin hesaplandığı çalışma bulgularına göre faiz oranı duyurularındaki 20 düşüşten sadece 3'ünde olay gününde turizm endeksi anlamlı anormal getiri gözlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, turizm yatırımcılarının politika faiz duyurularına tepkilerinin zayıf olduğunu ve politika faizinin turizm yatırımcılarını doğrudan etkilemediğini göstermektedir. BIST100 endeksinde elde edilen bulgular, faiz kararlarının pay getirilerine doğrudan etkilerinin zayıf olduğu sonucunu desteklemektedir.

Keywords

Endeks Getirisi, BİST Turizm, Faiz Oranı Duyuruları, TCMB, Olay Çalışması

References

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Chan, F. & C. Lim (2011), “Tourism stock performance and macro factors”, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12-16 December 2011.
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Chen, M.-H. (2011), “The response of hotel performance to international tourism development and crisis events”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, (30), 200-212.
Chen, M.-H. (2013), “Asymmetric response of hospitality stock prices to FED policy actions”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, (33), 129-139.
Chen, M.H. et al. (2005), “The impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on hotel stock returns”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 24(2), 243-258.
Chen, M.-H. et al. (2007), “The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach”, Hospitality Management, 26, 200-212.
Chen, M.-H. et al. (2009), “The impact of government weekend policy changes and foreign institutional holdings on weekly effect of tourism stock performance”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 33(2), 139-160.
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Demir, E. et al. (2017), “Macro explanatory factors of Turkish tourism companies' stock returns”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(4), 370-380.
Dolley, J.C. (1933), “Characteristics and procedure of common stock split-ups”, Harvard Business Review, 11(3), 316-326.
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Details

Primary Language	English
Journal Section	Articles
Authors	Fatih Günay 0000-0003-0892-514X Engin Bayraktaroğlu 0000-0002-9956-2593
Publication Date	January 31, 2022
Submission Date	April 27, 2021
Published in Issue	Year 2022

Cite

APA	Günay, F., & Bayraktaroğlu, E. (2022). Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi, 30(51), 91-118. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05
AMA	Günay F, Bayraktaroğlu E. Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi. January 2022;30(51):91-118. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05
Chicago	Günay, Fatih, and Engin Bayraktaroğlu. “Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns”. Sosyoekonomi 30, no. 51 (January 2022): 91-118. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05.
EndNote	Günay F, Bayraktaroğlu E (January 1, 2022) Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi 30 51 91–118.
IEEE	F. Günay and E. Bayraktaroğlu, “Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 30, no. 51, pp. 91–118, 2022, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05.
ISNAD	Günay, Fatih - Bayraktaroğlu, Engin. “Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns”. Sosyoekonomi 30/51 (January 2022), 91-118. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05.
JAMA	Günay F, Bayraktaroğlu E. Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi. 2022;30:91–118.
MLA	Günay, Fatih and Engin Bayraktaroğlu. “Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 30, no. 51, 2022, pp. 91-118, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05.
Vancouver	Günay F, Bayraktaroğlu E. Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi. 2022;30(51):91-118.

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