Fon Biriktirim Sistemi ve Yaşlanma: Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Year 2022, , 119 - 136, 29.07.2022

Çağaçan Değer

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.03.06

Abstract

Dağıtım esaslı sosyal güvenlik sistemlerinin açıkları nedeniyle, 1990larda ve 2000lerin başlarında bir sosyal güvenlik reform dalgası ortaya çıktı. Sorunun altında yatan yaşlanma olgusuna, sosyal güvenliğin özelleştirilmesi ile çözüm sunulabileceği düşünüldü. Bu görüşe şüphe ile yaklaşan bazı akademisyenler özelleştirmenin yaşlanma sorununa çözüm olamayabileceğine işaret ettiler. Bu çalışma, yaşlanmanın özel birikim esaslı sosyal güvenlik sütunu üzerindeki etkisinin ampirik incelemesini yapmaktadır. Basit bir piyasa denge koşulu kullanılarak, yaşlanan nüfusun tasarruf oranları için iması 2000-2100 dönemi için 150’den fazla ülke örneğinde incelenmiştir. Buradan hareketle, yaşlanmanın birikim esaslı emeklilik sistemlerinde sürdürülemezlik yaratabileceği saptanmıştır. Etki özellikle Doğu ve Güney Avrupa ülkeleri ile Kore ve Japonya’da baskındır.

Keywords

Sosyal Güvenlik, Birikim Emeklilik Sistemleri, Yaşlanma

Funded Pensions and Ageing: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

The social security reform wave in the 1990s and the early 2000s responded to the rising deficits of the public PAYG (pay-as-you-go) systems. Privatisation of social security was regarded as a cure for the population ageing problem believed to lie under the situation. Some academics were sceptic and argued that privatisation was not a remedy to the ageing problem. This paper empirically investigates the validity of this claim. Using a simple market equilibrium condition, the implications of the ageing population for saving rates are examined for more than 150 countries for the 2000 to 2100 period. It is found that ageing may cause unsustainability in funded pension systems. The impact is especially profound for southern and eastern European countries, Korea, and Japan.

Keywords

Social Security, Funded Pension Systems, Ageing

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