Türkiye İmalat Sanayi Sektörlerinin İhracatı - Zaman Serisi Analizi

Year 2014, Volume: 21 Issue: 21, - , 01.06.2014

Güzin Bayar Selman Tokpunar

https://doi.org/10.17233/se.86475

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin ihracatı sektörler bazında analiz edilmiştir. ISIC Rev. 3 iki basamaklı bazda 22 imalat sanayi sektöründen en çok ihracatı yapılan ilk 4 sektörün (ana metal, motorlu kara taşıtları, tekstil ve giyim sektörleri) 1998–2012 yılları arasında çeyrekler itibariyle zaman serisi denklemleri kurularak değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler tamamen değiştirilmiş en küçük kareler (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares-FMOLS) ve vektör hata düzeltme (Vector Error Correction-VEC) yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Regresyon sonuçlarına göre, incelenen sektörlerin tamamında ihracatını etkileyen en önemli değişkenin dış talep olduğu görülmektedir. Birim işgücü maliyetlerinin artması Giyim Eşyası ve Motorlu Kara Taşıtları sektörlerinin ihracatını uzun dönemde olumsuz olarak etkilemektedir. İhracat birim fiyatlarındaki artışlar tekstil sektörü hariç tüm sektörlerde ihracat gelirlerini artırıcı etkide bulunmaktadır. Reel kur değerlenmesinden incelenen sektörler içinde sadece tekstil sektörü olumsuz etkilenmektedir.

Keywords

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