Kırgızistan Dış Ticaret Dengesinin Belirleyicileri

Year 2015, Volume: 23 Issue: 25, 79 - 92, 30.07.2015

Jusup Pırımbaev Zamira Oskonbaeva

https://doi.org/10.17233/se.14363

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Bu çalışma Kırgızistan dış ticaretinin temel belirleyicilerini 2000-2013 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanarak tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç için yurtiçi gelir, reel döviz kuru ve para arzı değişkenlerine sınır testi yaklaşımına dayanan ARDL modeli uygulanmıştır. Elastikiyet, massetme ve parasalcı yaklaşımlar karşılaştırılarak, parasalcı ve elastikiyet yaklaşımlarını destekleyen bulgulara ulaşılmıştır. Para arzındaki (LM2) %1’lik düşüş ticaret dengesini %0,51 oranında, reel döviz kurundaki (LREER) %1’lik artış ise ticaret dengesini %1,09 oranında iyileştireceği görülmüştür. Uzun dönemde Marshall-Lerner koşulunun geçerliliğine, kısa dönemde ise J-eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olmadığına dair sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

-

References

• Alexander, S. (1952), “Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance”, International Monetary Fund, Staff Papers, 2(2), 263-278.
• Alexander, S. (1959), “The Effects of Devaluation: A simplified Synthesis of Elasticities and Absorption Approaches”, American Economic Review, XLIX (2), 22-42.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & T.J. Brooks (1999), “Bilateral J-Curve between US and Her Trading Partners”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 135(1), 156-165.
• Bickerdike, C.F. (1920), “The Instability of Foreign Exchanges”, The Economic Journal, 30(117), 118-122.
• Brown, R.L. & J. Durbin & J.M. Evans (1975), “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 37(2), 149-163.
• Duasa, J. (2007), “Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach”, Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28(3), 21-40.
• Gomes, F.A.R. & L.S. Paz (2005), “Can real exchange rate devaluation improve the trade balance? The 1990-1998 Brazilian case”, Applied Economics Letters, 12(9): 525-528.
• Harberger, A.C. (1950), “Currency Depreciation, Income and the Balance of Trade”, The Journal of Political Economy, 58 (1), 47-60.
• Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Tze-Haw Chan (2008), “Examining Exchange Rates Exposure: J-Curve and the Marshall-Lerner Condition for High Frequency Trade Series between China and Malaysia”, MPRA Paper, 10916, University Library of Munich, Germany, 1-10.
• İrhan, H.B. & N.D. Alacahan & L. Korap (2011), “An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik 14, 38–61.
• Johnson, H.G. (1972), “The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory”, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 7(2), 1555-1572.
• Johnson, H.G. (1977), “The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Theory and Policy: Explanation and Policy Implications”, Economica, 44(175), 217-229.
• Kim, A. (2009), “An Empirical Analysis of Korea’s Trade Imbalances with the US and Japan”, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 14(3), 211–226.
• Lal, A.K. & T.C. Lowinger (2002), “Nominal Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment in South Asia Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 13, 371-383.
• Liew, K.S. & K.P. Lim & H. Hussain (2003), “Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Relationship: The Experience of ASEAN Countries”, International Trade, 0307003, Econ WPA.
• Magee, S.P. (1973), “Currency Contracts, Pass Through and Devaluation”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activitiy, 1, 303–25.
• Matesanz, D. & G. Fugarolas (2009), “Exchange Rate Policy and Trade Balance: a Cointegration Analysis of the Argentine Experience since 1962”, Applied Economics, 41, 2571–2582.
• Metzler, L. (1948), A Survey of Contemporary Economics, Vol. I (Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin).
• Meade, J.E. (1951), The Balance of Payments, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Milani, H. (1989), “Devaluation and the Balance of Trade: A Synthesis of Monetary and Elasticity Approaches”, International Economic Journal, 3(3):71.
• Muhammad, S.D. (2010), “Determinant of Balance of Trade: Case Study of Pakistan”, European Journal of Scientific Research, 41(1), 13-20.
• Mundell, R.A. (1968), International Economics, New York Macmillan.
• Narayan, P.K. & S. Narayan (2004), “The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji”, International Review of Applied Economics, 18(3), 369-380.
• Narayan, P.K. (2004), “New Zealand's Trade Balance Evidence of the J-Curve and Granger Causality”, Applied Economics Letters, 11, 351-354.
• Ng, Y.L. & W.M. Har & G.M. Tan (2008), “Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: An Empirical Study on Malaysia”, International Journal of Business and Management, 3(8), 130-137.
• Onafowora, O. (2003), “Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in East Asia: Is There a J-Curve?”, Economics Bulletin, 5(18), 1-13.
• Ono, M. & S.J. Baak (2014), “Revisiting the J-Curve for Japan”, Modern Economy, 5, 32-47.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Y. Shin (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century”, The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, ed. S. Strom, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Y. Shin & R.J. Smith (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
• Polak, J.J. (1957), “Monetary Analysis on Income Formation and Payments Problems”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 6, 1-50.
• Ray, S. (2012), “An Analysis of Determinants of Balance of Trade in India”, Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(1), 73-83.
• Rincon, H. (1998), “Testing the Short and Long Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia”, Submitted Ph.D. Thesis, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
• Robinson, J. (1947), “The Pure Theory of International Trade”, The Review of Economic Studies, 14(2), 98-112.
• Singh, T. (2002), “India’s trade balance: the role of income and exchange rates”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 24, 437-452.
• Sun, C.H. & Y.B. Chiu (2010), “Taiwan’s Trade Imbalance and Exchange Rate Revisited”, Applied Economics, 42, 917–922.
• Shirvani, H. & B. Wilbratte (1997), “The Relationship between the Real Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment”, International Economic Journal, 11(1), 39-51.
• Weixian, W. (1999), “An Empirical Study of the Foreign Trade Balance in China”, Applied Economics Letters, 6(8), 485-490.
• Wilson, P. & K.C. Tat (2001), “Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: the Case of Singapore 1970 to 1996”, Journal of Asian Economics, 12(1), 47-63.