Döviz Kuru Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişini Gerçekten Tetikler mi? Türkiye Örneği

Year 2018, Volume: 26 Issue: 37, 257 - 273, 31.07.2018

Zeynep Erünlü

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.15

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, reel döviz kuru ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında ilişkinin varlığı, Lojistik Yumuşak Geçişli - Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme Modeli (LST-ARDL) modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Reel döviz kuru değişikliklerinin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi özellikle Türkiye gibi yüksek miktarda yabancı borç stoku olan gelişmekte olan ülkeler için çok önemlidir. Tahmin sonuçları, Türk Lirasının Amerikan Doları karşısında reel olarak değer kazanmasının yabancı sermaye girişini arttırdığını ve bu etkinin özellikle yüksek sermaye girişinin olduğu dönemlerde daha yüksek olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye’nin istikrarsız kısa vadeli portföy akımlarından ziyade üretken sermaye akımlarını çekmesi için Amerikan dolarına karşı güçlü para birimini sürdürmesi gerekmektedir.

Keywords

Döviz kuru, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım, Yumuşak Geçişli Regresyon Modeli, Eşik Etkisi

Do Depreciations Really Trigger an Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment? The Case of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between real exchange rate and foreign direct investment is examined using the Logistic Smooth Transition - Autoregressive Distributed Lag (LST-ARDL) model. Analyzing the effect of real exchange rate changes on foreign direct investment is very crucial for a developing country like Turkey which has a relatively large foreign debt stock. The estimation results show that foreign direct investment inflows to Turkey increase when Turkish Lira appreciates against the US dollar. This effect is especially strong during periods of high investment inflows. Thus, for Turkey to attract productive capital flows rather than short-term rather unstable portfolio flows it has to maintain a strong currency against the US dollar.

Keywords

Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Smooth Transition Regression Model, Threshold Effect

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