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Analyzing Internal Migration to Antalya and Muğla through Gravity Modelling

Year 2018, Volume: 26 Issue: 37, 117 - 126, 31.07.2018
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06

Abstract

Antalya and Muğla provinces located in southwestern Turkey recently emerged as new magnets for internal migration. In an earlier study, we had pointed out that the dynamics underlying migration to these two provinces differs in many respects from that fueling the population movements to traditional magnets. In this paper, we complement our previous findings by showing how in some other key respects, migration to Antalya and Muğla is similar to migration to traditional destinations. We accomplish this by estimating separate gravity models for the two provinces in question, using both OLS and robust regression methods. We find that migration to Antalya and Muğla is affected by distance from the origin adversely, and by unemployment differential between the origin and destination, past migration from the origin, population sizes at the origin and destination, and natural disasters at the origin, favorably.

References

  • Aldashev, A. & B. Dietz (2012), “Economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan”, IZA Discussion Paper No. 6289.
  • Amara, M. & H. Jemmali (2017), “Deciphering the Relationship between Internal Migration and Regional Disparities in Tunisia”, Social Indicators Research, forthcoming.
  • Anderson, J.E. (2011), “The gravity model”, The Annual Review of Economics, 3(1), 133-160.
  • Andrienko, Y. & S. Guriev (2004), “Determinants of inter-regional mobility in Russia”, Economics of Transition, 12(1), 1-27.
  • Buena, D. (2012), “Modern gravity models of internal migration: The case of Romania”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol. 19, 127-144.
  • Dhar, S. (1984), “Inter-state and within-state migration in India”, in: Contractual Arrangements, Employment and Wages in Rural Labor Markets in Asia, H.P. Binswanger & M.R. Rosenzweig (eds), Economic Growth Center, Yale University, 281-304.
  • Etzo, I. (2011), “The determinants of recent interregional migration flows in Italy: A panel data analysis”, Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 51, 948-966.
  • Etzo, I. (2008), “Internal migration: A review of the literature”, MPRA Working Paper No. 8783. Fan, C.C. (2005), “Modeling interprovincial migration in China 1985-2000”, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 46(3), 165-184.
  • Filiztekin, A. & A. Gökhan (2008), “The determinants of internal migration in Turkey”, paper presented at International Conference on Policy Modelling (EcoMod2008), Berlin, Germany, 2-4 July 2008.
  • Gedik, A. (1996), “Internal migration in Turkey, 1965-85: Test of some conflicting findings in the literature”, Working Paper in Demography No. 66, Austrian National University, Canberra, Australia.
  • Gezici, F. & B. Keskin (2005), “Interactions between regional inequalities and internal migration in Turkey”, paper presented at the 45 th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: Land Use and Water Management in a Sustainable Network Society, Amsterdam, 23-27 August 2005.
  • Greenwood, M.J. & G.L. Hunt (2003), “The early history of migration research”, International Regional Science Review, 26(1), 3-37.
  • Greenwood, M.J. (1997), “Internal migration in developed countries”, in: M.R. Rosenzweig & O. Stark (eds.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Vol. 1B, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 647-720.
  • Gündüz, M. & N. Yetim (1997), “Terör ve Göç”, (Terrorism and migration) in: Toplum ve Göç-II. Ulusal Sosyoloji Kongresi (November 20-22, 1996, Mersin) Bildiriler Kitabı, SIS Pub. Number 2046, Ankara, SIS, 109-118.
  • İçduygu, A. & T. Ünalan (1998), “Türkiye’de iç göç: Sorunsal alanları ve araştırma yöntemleri”, (Internal migration in Turkey: Its problem areas and research methods) in: Türkiye’de İç Göç, Sorunsal Alanları ve Araştırma Yöntemleri Konferansı (June 6-8, 1998, BoluGerede) Bildiriler Kitabı, İstanbul: Türkiye Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Tarih Vakfı, 38-55.
  • Kocaman, T. (2008), Türkiye’de İç Göçler ve Göç Edenlerin Nitelikleri: 1965-2000 (Internal migration in Turkey and the characteristics of those who migrate: 1965-2000), Ankara: State Planning Organization, Prime Ministry, the Republic of Turkey.
  • Lucas, R.E.B. (1997), “Internal migration in developing countries”, in: M.R. Rosenzweig & O. Stark (eds.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Volume 1B, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 721-798.
  • Mueser, P. (1989), “The spatial structure of migration: an analysis of flows between states in the USA over three decades”, Regional Studies, 23(3), 185-200.
  • Munro, J. (1974), “Migration in Turkey”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 22(4), 63453.
  • Pacheco, G.A. & S. Rossouw & J. Lewer (2013), “Do Non-Economic Quality of Life Factors Drive Immigration?”, Social Indicators Research, 110(1), 1-15.
  • Pazarlıoğlu, M.V. (1997), “1980-1990 döneminde Türkiye’de iç göç üzerine ekonometrik model çalışması”, (An Econometric model study on internal migration in Turkey for the period 1980-1990) Çukurova University V. National Econometrics and Statistics Symposium, Adana.
  • Phan, D. & I. Coxhead (2010), “Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam’s transition”, Journal of Development Economics, 91(1), 100-112.
  • Poot, J. & O. Alimi & M.P. Cameron & D.C. Maré (2016), “The Gravity Model of Migration: The Successful Comeback of an Ageing Superstar in Regional Science”, IZA Discussion Paper No. 10329.
  • Rousseeuw, P.J. (1984), “Least Median of Squares Regression”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79(388), 871-880.
  • Rousseeuw, P.J. & K. Van Driessen (2000), “An Algorithm for Positive-Breakdown Regression Based on Concentration Steps”, in: W. Gaul & O. Opitz & M. Schader (eds.), Data Analysis: Scientific Modeling and Practical Application, New York: Springer-Verlag, 335-346.
  • SAS (2008), SAS/STAT 9.2 User’s Guide, Cary, North Carolina: SAS Institute Inc.
  • Tunalı, İ. (1996), “Migration and remigration of male household heads in Turkey, 1963-1973”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 45(1), 56-67.
  • Zaman, A. & P.J. Rousseeuw & M. Orhan (2001), “Econometric Applications of High-Breakdown Robust Regression Techniques”, Econometrics Letters, 71(1), 1-8.

Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi

Year 2018, Volume: 26 Issue: 37, 117 - 126, 31.07.2018
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06

Abstract

Türkiye’nin güneybatısında yer alan Antalya ve Muğla illeri son zamanlarda iç göç için birer mıknatıs haline geldiler. Daha önce yaptığımız bir araştırmada, bu illere göçü doğuran dinamiklerin, pek çok bakımdan, iç göçü geleneksel mekânlara çeken dinamiklerden farklı olduğuna dikkat çekmiştik. Bu çalışmada ise başka önemli yönlerden, Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan göçün geleneksel merkezlere olan göç ile ne kadar benzer olduğunu göstererek önceki bulgularımızı tamamlıyoruz. Bunu, EKK ve Robust regresyon metodları kullanarak, bahsi geçen her iki il için ayrı birer çekim (gravity) modeli saptayarak gerçekleştiriyoruz. Bulgularımıza göre, Antalya ve Muğlaya olan göç, çıkış noktasına olan uzaklık arttıkça olumsuz, çıkıs noktası ile varış noktası işsizlik oranları arasındaki fark, çıkiş noktasından alınmış geçmiş göç, çıkış ve varış noktalarının nüfusları ve çıkış noktasında meydana gelen afetlerin büyüklüğü arttıkça olumlu etkilenmektedir.

References

  • Aldashev, A. & B. Dietz (2012), “Economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan”, IZA Discussion Paper No. 6289.
  • Amara, M. & H. Jemmali (2017), “Deciphering the Relationship between Internal Migration and Regional Disparities in Tunisia”, Social Indicators Research, forthcoming.
  • Anderson, J.E. (2011), “The gravity model”, The Annual Review of Economics, 3(1), 133-160.
  • Andrienko, Y. & S. Guriev (2004), “Determinants of inter-regional mobility in Russia”, Economics of Transition, 12(1), 1-27.
  • Buena, D. (2012), “Modern gravity models of internal migration: The case of Romania”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol. 19, 127-144.
  • Dhar, S. (1984), “Inter-state and within-state migration in India”, in: Contractual Arrangements, Employment and Wages in Rural Labor Markets in Asia, H.P. Binswanger & M.R. Rosenzweig (eds), Economic Growth Center, Yale University, 281-304.
  • Etzo, I. (2011), “The determinants of recent interregional migration flows in Italy: A panel data analysis”, Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 51, 948-966.
  • Etzo, I. (2008), “Internal migration: A review of the literature”, MPRA Working Paper No. 8783. Fan, C.C. (2005), “Modeling interprovincial migration in China 1985-2000”, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 46(3), 165-184.
  • Filiztekin, A. & A. Gökhan (2008), “The determinants of internal migration in Turkey”, paper presented at International Conference on Policy Modelling (EcoMod2008), Berlin, Germany, 2-4 July 2008.
  • Gedik, A. (1996), “Internal migration in Turkey, 1965-85: Test of some conflicting findings in the literature”, Working Paper in Demography No. 66, Austrian National University, Canberra, Australia.
  • Gezici, F. & B. Keskin (2005), “Interactions between regional inequalities and internal migration in Turkey”, paper presented at the 45 th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: Land Use and Water Management in a Sustainable Network Society, Amsterdam, 23-27 August 2005.
  • Greenwood, M.J. & G.L. Hunt (2003), “The early history of migration research”, International Regional Science Review, 26(1), 3-37.
  • Greenwood, M.J. (1997), “Internal migration in developed countries”, in: M.R. Rosenzweig & O. Stark (eds.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Vol. 1B, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 647-720.
  • Gündüz, M. & N. Yetim (1997), “Terör ve Göç”, (Terrorism and migration) in: Toplum ve Göç-II. Ulusal Sosyoloji Kongresi (November 20-22, 1996, Mersin) Bildiriler Kitabı, SIS Pub. Number 2046, Ankara, SIS, 109-118.
  • İçduygu, A. & T. Ünalan (1998), “Türkiye’de iç göç: Sorunsal alanları ve araştırma yöntemleri”, (Internal migration in Turkey: Its problem areas and research methods) in: Türkiye’de İç Göç, Sorunsal Alanları ve Araştırma Yöntemleri Konferansı (June 6-8, 1998, BoluGerede) Bildiriler Kitabı, İstanbul: Türkiye Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Tarih Vakfı, 38-55.
  • Kocaman, T. (2008), Türkiye’de İç Göçler ve Göç Edenlerin Nitelikleri: 1965-2000 (Internal migration in Turkey and the characteristics of those who migrate: 1965-2000), Ankara: State Planning Organization, Prime Ministry, the Republic of Turkey.
  • Lucas, R.E.B. (1997), “Internal migration in developing countries”, in: M.R. Rosenzweig & O. Stark (eds.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Volume 1B, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 721-798.
  • Mueser, P. (1989), “The spatial structure of migration: an analysis of flows between states in the USA over three decades”, Regional Studies, 23(3), 185-200.
  • Munro, J. (1974), “Migration in Turkey”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 22(4), 63453.
  • Pacheco, G.A. & S. Rossouw & J. Lewer (2013), “Do Non-Economic Quality of Life Factors Drive Immigration?”, Social Indicators Research, 110(1), 1-15.
  • Pazarlıoğlu, M.V. (1997), “1980-1990 döneminde Türkiye’de iç göç üzerine ekonometrik model çalışması”, (An Econometric model study on internal migration in Turkey for the period 1980-1990) Çukurova University V. National Econometrics and Statistics Symposium, Adana.
  • Phan, D. & I. Coxhead (2010), “Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam’s transition”, Journal of Development Economics, 91(1), 100-112.
  • Poot, J. & O. Alimi & M.P. Cameron & D.C. Maré (2016), “The Gravity Model of Migration: The Successful Comeback of an Ageing Superstar in Regional Science”, IZA Discussion Paper No. 10329.
  • Rousseeuw, P.J. (1984), “Least Median of Squares Regression”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79(388), 871-880.
  • Rousseeuw, P.J. & K. Van Driessen (2000), “An Algorithm for Positive-Breakdown Regression Based on Concentration Steps”, in: W. Gaul & O. Opitz & M. Schader (eds.), Data Analysis: Scientific Modeling and Practical Application, New York: Springer-Verlag, 335-346.
  • SAS (2008), SAS/STAT 9.2 User’s Guide, Cary, North Carolina: SAS Institute Inc.
  • Tunalı, İ. (1996), “Migration and remigration of male household heads in Turkey, 1963-1973”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 45(1), 56-67.
  • Zaman, A. & P.J. Rousseeuw & M. Orhan (2001), “Econometric Applications of High-Breakdown Robust Regression Techniques”, Econometrics Letters, 71(1), 1-8.
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ali Tarık Akarca This is me 0000-0003-1411-1695

Aysıt Tansel 0000-0001-9556-2396

Publication Date July 31, 2018
Submission Date September 8, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 26 Issue: 37

Cite

APA Akarca, A. T., & Tansel, A. (2018). Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 26(37), 117-126. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06
AMA Akarca AT, Tansel A. Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. July 2018;26(37):117-126. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06
Chicago Akarca, Ali Tarık, and Aysıt Tansel. “Antalya Ve Muğla’ya Olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli Ile Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 26, no. 37 (July 2018): 117-26. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06.
EndNote Akarca AT, Tansel A (July 1, 2018) Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. Sosyoekonomi 26 37 117–126.
IEEE A. T. Akarca and A. Tansel, “Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 26, no. 37, pp. 117–126, 2018, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06.
ISNAD Akarca, Ali Tarık - Tansel, Aysıt. “Antalya Ve Muğla’ya Olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli Ile Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 26/37 (July 2018), 117-126. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06.
JAMA Akarca AT, Tansel A. Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2018;26:117–126.
MLA Akarca, Ali Tarık and Aysıt Tansel. “Antalya Ve Muğla’ya Olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli Ile Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 26, no. 37, 2018, pp. 117-26, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.03.06.
Vancouver Akarca AT, Tansel A. Antalya ve Muğla’ya olan İç Göçün Çekim Modeli ile Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2018;26(37):117-26.