Research Article
PDF Zotero Mendeley EndNote BibTex Cite

Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Yakınsaklık ve Eşbütünleşme Analizi: Türkiye Turizm Piyasaları Uygulaması

Year 2019, Volume 27, Issue 39, 95 - 110, 31.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1996-2016 yılları arasında Türkiye turizm pazarları aylık verilerini kullanarak eşbütünleşme yapısını incelemek ve yakınsaklık hipotezini test etmektir. Yakınsaklık hipotezinin tespiti için 23 önemli ülkeden Türkiye’ye gelen yabancı turist gelişleri verileri kullanılmıştır. Yabancı turist gelişleri verileri yapısal kırılma ve farklı varyanslık içermektedir. Bu özellikler birim kök ve eşbütünleşme test sonuçlarını negatif etkilemektedir. Yapısal kırılma ve farklı varyanslılığın göz ardı edilmesi yakınsak turist gelişlerinin sayısını azaltmaktadır. Yakınsaklık hipotezinin tespiti için geleneksel Dickey Fuller birim kök testi, son yıllarda geliştirilmiş Lagrange multiplier (LM) ve Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS-LM) testleri kullanılmıştır. Gregory Hansen ve RALS tabanlı eşbütünleşme testleri uzun dönemli denge ilişkisini ortaya çıkarmak için kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, Türkiye için turizm pazarlarının çoğunun yakınsak olduğuna dair güçlü kanıtlar ortaya koymuştur. Bu, turizm politikaları ve stratejilerinin yakınsak turizm piyasaları için başarılı olduğu anlamına gelmektedir. Buna ek olarak, yapısal kırılma ve farklı varyanslılığın varlığında farklı turizm piyasaları arasında eşbütünleşik ilişkiler olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

References

  • Abbott, A. & G. Vita & L. Altinay (2012), “Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach”, Tourism Management, 33, 537-544.
  • Gregory, A.W. & B.E. Hansen (1996), “Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126.
  • Im, K.S. & P. Schmidt (2008), “More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors using residual augmented least squares”, J.Econ., 144, 219-233.
  • Im, K.S. & J. Lee & M. Tieslau (2014), “More powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors”, in: R.C. Sickles & W.C. Horrace (eds.), Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, New York: Springer, 315-342.
  • Kim, H.J. & M.H. Chen & S.C. Jang (2006), “Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan”, Tourism Management, 27, 925-933.
  • Lean, H.H. & R. Smyth (2008), “Are Malaysia’s tourism markets converging? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests with structural breaks”, Tourism Economics, 14, 97- 112.
  • Lee, C.G. (2009), “The convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Singapore”, Tourism Economics, 15, 875-881.
  • Lee, J. & M.C. Strazicich (2004), “Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break”, Working Paper No. 0417, Boone: Appalachian State University.
  • Lee, J. & M.C. Strazicich & M. Meng (2012), “Two-step LM unit root tests with trend-breaks”, Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 1, 81-107.
  • Li, J. & J. Lee (2015), “Improved Autoregressive Forecasts in the Presence of Non-Normal Errors”, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 85(14), 2936-2952.
  • Lorde, T. & W. Moore (2008), “Co-movement in tourist arrivals in the Caribbean”, Tourism Economics, 3, 631-643.
  • Meng, M. & J.E. Payne & J. Lee (2013), “Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries”, Energy Economics, 36, 536-545.
  • Meng, M. & J. Lee (2012), “More powerful LM unit root tests with trend-breaks in the presence of non-normal errors”, Working Paper, University of Alabama.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2006), “Are Australia’s tourism markets converging?”, Applied Economics, 38, 1153- 1162.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2007), “Testing convergence of Fiji’s tourism markets”, Pacific Economic Review, 12, 651-663.
  • Ozcan, B. & S. Erdogan (2015), “Are Turkey’s tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests”, Current Issues in Tourism., 1-18.
  • Pierdzioch, C. & M. Risse & S. Rohloff (2015), “Cointegration of the prices of gold and silver: RALS- based evidence”, Finance Research Letters, 15, 133-137.
  • Samirkas, M. & O. Bahar (2011), “Turizm Sektörünün Bölgelerarası Gelişmişlik Farklılıklarını Gidermedeki Etkisi: Yakınsama Modeli”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 48(557), 70-85.
  • Tan, S.H. & S.K. Tan (2013), “Are Singapore’s tourism markets converging with structural breaks?”, Tourism Economics, 19, 209-216.
  • Tang, C.F. (2011), “Old wine in new bottles: Are Malaysia’s tourism markets converging?”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 16, 263-272.
  • Taylor M.P. & D.A. Peel (1998), “Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test”, Econ. Lett., 61, 221-228.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute, (2017), Tourism Statistics, <http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/>, 23.02.2017.
  • UNWTO (2013 & 2016), Tourism Highlights, World Tourism Organization: Madrid.
  • Yilanci, V. & Z.A. Eris (2012), “Are tourism markets of Turkey converging or not? A Fourier stationary analysis”, Anatolia: An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 23, 207-216.

Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets

Year 2019, Volume 27, Issue 39, 95 - 110, 31.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the cointegration structure and to test the convergence hypothesis in Turkey’s tourism markets with monthly data over the period 1996-2016. To check the existence of convergence, we used international tourist arrivals to Turkey from each of Turkey’s 23 major markets. International tourist arrivals data of Turkey may comprise structural changes and volatility. These attributes may negatively affect the reliability of unit root and cointegration tests outcomes. Ignorance of volatility and breaks leads to decrease in the number of convergent tourism markets. Conventional Dickey Fuller unit root test, recently developed Lagrange multiplier (LM) and Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS-LM) tests are performed to test the existence of convergence in the tourism market. Gregory Hansen and RALS based cointegration tests are used for checking long run relationship of the tourist arrivals data. The study reveals strong evidence that most of the tourism markets for Turkey are converging. This means that tourism policies and strategies are successful for convergent tourism markets. In addition, there is some long run relationship among the different tourism markets in the presence of structural break and volatility.

References

  • Abbott, A. & G. Vita & L. Altinay (2012), “Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach”, Tourism Management, 33, 537-544.
  • Gregory, A.W. & B.E. Hansen (1996), “Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126.
  • Im, K.S. & P. Schmidt (2008), “More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors using residual augmented least squares”, J.Econ., 144, 219-233.
  • Im, K.S. & J. Lee & M. Tieslau (2014), “More powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors”, in: R.C. Sickles & W.C. Horrace (eds.), Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, New York: Springer, 315-342.
  • Kim, H.J. & M.H. Chen & S.C. Jang (2006), “Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan”, Tourism Management, 27, 925-933.
  • Lean, H.H. & R. Smyth (2008), “Are Malaysia’s tourism markets converging? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests with structural breaks”, Tourism Economics, 14, 97- 112.
  • Lee, C.G. (2009), “The convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Singapore”, Tourism Economics, 15, 875-881.
  • Lee, J. & M.C. Strazicich (2004), “Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break”, Working Paper No. 0417, Boone: Appalachian State University.
  • Lee, J. & M.C. Strazicich & M. Meng (2012), “Two-step LM unit root tests with trend-breaks”, Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 1, 81-107.
  • Li, J. & J. Lee (2015), “Improved Autoregressive Forecasts in the Presence of Non-Normal Errors”, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 85(14), 2936-2952.
  • Lorde, T. & W. Moore (2008), “Co-movement in tourist arrivals in the Caribbean”, Tourism Economics, 3, 631-643.
  • Meng, M. & J.E. Payne & J. Lee (2013), “Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries”, Energy Economics, 36, 536-545.
  • Meng, M. & J. Lee (2012), “More powerful LM unit root tests with trend-breaks in the presence of non-normal errors”, Working Paper, University of Alabama.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2006), “Are Australia’s tourism markets converging?”, Applied Economics, 38, 1153- 1162.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2007), “Testing convergence of Fiji’s tourism markets”, Pacific Economic Review, 12, 651-663.
  • Ozcan, B. & S. Erdogan (2015), “Are Turkey’s tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests”, Current Issues in Tourism., 1-18.
  • Pierdzioch, C. & M. Risse & S. Rohloff (2015), “Cointegration of the prices of gold and silver: RALS- based evidence”, Finance Research Letters, 15, 133-137.
  • Samirkas, M. & O. Bahar (2011), “Turizm Sektörünün Bölgelerarası Gelişmişlik Farklılıklarını Gidermedeki Etkisi: Yakınsama Modeli”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 48(557), 70-85.
  • Tan, S.H. & S.K. Tan (2013), “Are Singapore’s tourism markets converging with structural breaks?”, Tourism Economics, 19, 209-216.
  • Tang, C.F. (2011), “Old wine in new bottles: Are Malaysia’s tourism markets converging?”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 16, 263-272.
  • Taylor M.P. & D.A. Peel (1998), “Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test”, Econ. Lett., 61, 221-228.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute, (2017), Tourism Statistics, <http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/>, 23.02.2017.
  • UNWTO (2013 & 2016), Tourism Highlights, World Tourism Organization: Madrid.
  • Yilanci, V. & Z.A. Eris (2012), “Are tourism markets of Turkey converging or not? A Fourier stationary analysis”, Anatolia: An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 23, 207-216.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Social
Published Date 1
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Berhan ÇOBAN
Türkiye


Esin FİRUZAN
Türkiye

Publication Date January 31, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019, Volume 27, Issue 39

Cite

Bibtex @research article { sosyoekonomi331224, journal = {Sosyoekonomi}, issn = {1305-5577}, address = {}, publisher = {Sosyoekonomi Society}, year = {2019}, volume = {27}, pages = {95 - 110}, doi = {10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06}, title = {Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets}, key = {cite}, author = {Çoban, Berhan and Firuzan, Esin} }
APA Çoban, B. & Firuzan, E. (2019). Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets . Sosyoekonomi , 27 (39) , 95-110 . DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06
MLA Çoban, B. , Firuzan, E. "Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets" . Sosyoekonomi 27 (2019 ): 95-110 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/42700/331224>
Chicago Çoban, B. , Firuzan, E. "Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets". Sosyoekonomi 27 (2019 ): 95-110
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets AU - Berhan Çoban , Esin Firuzan Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06 DO - 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06 T2 - Sosyoekonomi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 95 EP - 110 VL - 27 IS - 39 SN - 1305-5577- M3 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06 UR - https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Sosyoekonomi Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets %A Berhan Çoban , Esin Firuzan %T Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets %D 2019 %J Sosyoekonomi %P 1305-5577- %V 27 %N 39 %R doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06 %U 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06
ISNAD Çoban, Berhan , Firuzan, Esin . "Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets". Sosyoekonomi 27 / 39 (January 2019): 95-110 . https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06
AMA Çoban B. , Firuzan E. Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets. Sosyoekonomi. 2019; 27(39): 95-110.
Vancouver Çoban B. , Firuzan E. Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets. Sosyoekonomi. 2019; 27(39): 95-110.
IEEE B. Çoban and E. Firuzan , "Convergence and Cointegration Analysis under Structural Breaks: Application of Turkey Tourism Markets", Sosyoekonomi, vol. 27, no. 39, pp. 95-110, Jan. 2019, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.06