Validity of Unemployment Hysteresis: The Most Fragile Five Developing Countries

Year 2019, Volume: 27 Issue: 39, 69 - 80, 31.01.2019

Ömer Akkuş Seher Gülşah Topuz

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.04

Cited By: 11

Abstract

This study investigates the movement of unemployment for five most fragile developing countries including Turkey over the period 1980-2016. For this purpose, which one of the three approaches within the theoretical literature “natural unemployment rate hypothesis”, “unemployment hysteresis” or “structuralist theory of unemployment” is valid is examined using traditional unit root and unit root tests allowing for structural breaks. Hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis is valid for five most fragile developing countries according to both results of traditional unit root and unit root test allowing for structural breaks. Namely, unemployment rate does not fluctuate around natural unemployment rate and therefore the results indicate that shocks do not create temporary effects on unemployment but permanent. Governments in five most fragile developing countries are expected to actively intervene in the policy on unemployment since the unemployment rate does not tend to return to its natural level.

Keywords

Unemployment, Hysteresis, Unit Root, Fragile Countries, Fragile Countries

İşsizlik Histerisinin Geçerliliği: Gelişmekte Olan En Kırılgan Beşli

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 1980-2016 yılları arasında aralarında Türkiye’nin de yer aldığı gelişmekte olan en kırılgan beş ülke için işsizliğin seyri incelenmektedir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda teorik literatürden hareketle; doğal işsizlik oranı hipotezi, işsizlik histerisi veya yapısal işsizlik yaklaşımlarından hangisinin geçerli olduğu geleneksel ve kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile incelenmektedir. Hem geleneksel hem de kırılmalı birim kök test sonuçlarına göre gelişmekte olan en kırılgan beş ülkede işsizlik histerisinin geçerli olduğuna dair hipotez desteklenmektedir. Yani işsizliğin, denge işsizlik oranının etrafında bir salınım gerçekleştirmediği dolayısıyla da şokların işsizlik üzerinde geçici değil kalıcı etkiler yarattığı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. İşsizlik oranının doğal düzeyine dönme eğiliminde olmaması nedeniyle en kırılgan beş ülkedeki hükümetlerin işsizlik ile ilgili politikalara aktif şekilde müdahale etmeleri beklenmektedir.

Keywords

İşsizlik, Histeri, Birim Kök Analizi, Kırılgan Ülkeler, Kırılgan Ülkeler

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