İşsizlik ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türk İmalat Sanayi Örneği

Year 2019, Volume: 27 Issue: 39, 133 - 149, 31.01.2019

Özge Barış-tüzemen Samet Tüzemen

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.08

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 2005:Q1-2017:Q4 dönemi için imalat sektöründeki büyüme ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Bu bağlamda, imalat sanayi ve işsizlik oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki için Bayer ve Hanck (2012) tarafından geliştirilen birleştirilmiş koentegrasyon yaklaşımından yararlanılmıştır. İlgili değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönemli ilişkinin incelenmesi için Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) simetrik ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular serilerin eşbütünleşik olmadığını göstermiştir. Bir diğer ifadeyle, işsizlik oranı ve imalat sanayi büyümesi arasında uzun dönemde ilişki yoktur. Bunun yanısıra, değişkenler arasında kısa dönem simetrik ilişki de tespit edilememiştir. Asimetrik nedensellik sonuçlarına göre ise imalat sektöründen işsizlik oranına doğru herhangi bir nedensellik gözlenemezken, işzilik oranındaki negatif şokların imalat sanayindeki negatif şokların nedeni olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında Türkiye’de imalat sektörü için istihdam yaratmayan büyüme olgusunun var olduğu söylenebilir.

Keywords

İşsizlik, İmalat Sanayi, Birleştirilmiş Koentegrasyon, Asimetrik Nedensellik

The Relationship between Unemployment and Growth: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Abstract

The aim of the study is to examine the short and the long-run relationship between the unemployment and the manufacturing industry in Turkey for the period between 2005:Q and 2017:Q4. For this purpose, firstly the combined cointegration technique, which is developed by Bayer and Hanck (2012), is applied to reveal the long-run relationship. For the short run relationship, on the other hand, the symmetric and the asymmetric causal relationships among the variables are investigated using the Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and Hatemi-J (2012) methods. The findings show that the variables are not cointegrated. In other words, there is no long-run relationship between the unemployment rate and the manufacturing industry growth. According to the symmetric causality test of Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006), no causality is detected. However, Hatemi-J (20012) asymmetric causality test suggests that there is only one unidirectional causality. The direction of the causality is from the negative shocks of the unemployment rate to the negative shocks of the manufacturing industry. The results support the jobless growth phenomenon for the manufacturing sector in Turkey.

Keywords

Unemployment, Manufacturing Industry, Combined Cointegration, Asymmetric Causality

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