Türkiye’de Finans-Büyüme Bağıntısının Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi: 1970-2016 Dönemi için Bayer-Hanck Bileşik Eşbütünleşme Yaklaşımı

Year 2020, Volume: 28 Issue: 44, 41 - 68, 19.04.2020

Onur Özdemir

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.02.03

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’deki finans-büyüme bağıntısını tekrar ele almaktadır. Örneklem 1970 ve 2016 arası dönemi kapsamaktadır. Ekonometrik analiz, değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşmenin var olup olmadığını incelemek için Bayer-Hanck bütünleşik eşbütünleşme testine dayanmaktadır. Bayer-Hanck bileşik eşbütünleşme testi sonuçları, ekonomik küreselleşme ve teknolojik ilerleme gibi kontrol değişkenlerinin varlığında dahi finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında eşbütünleşme olmadığını göstermektedir. Tahmin sonuçları ayrıca değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişkinin olmadığını ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle, finansal gelişmenin, uzun vadede, yüksek ekonomik küreselleşme ve teknolojik ilerleme yoluyla ekonomik büyüme sürecine katkıda bulunmadığı ileri sürülebilir.

Keywords

Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Ekonomik Küreselleşme, Teknolojik İlerleme, Bayer-Hanck Bileşik Eşbütünleşme Testi

Revisiting the Finance-Growth Nexus in Turkey: Bayer-Hanck Combined Cointegration Approach over the 1970-2016 Period

Abstract

This study revisits the finance-growth nexus in Turkey. The sample covers the period between 1970 and 2016. The econometric analysis is based on the Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration test to examine whether the cointegration exists or not between the variables. The results of the Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration test show that there is no cointegration between financial development and economic growth even in the control of other variables such as economic globalization and technological progress. The estimation results also reveal that the long-run linkage is not prevailing between the variables. In other words, it can be argued that financial development does not contribute to the economic growth process by way of higher levels of economic globalization and technological progress in the long-run.

Keywords

Financial Development, Economic Growth, Economic Globalization, Technological Progress, Bayer-Hanck Combined Cointegration Test

References

• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. & Robinson, J. A. (2001), “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”, American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401.
• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. & Robinson, J. A (2004), “Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth”, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No: 10481, May.
• Ağır, H., Peker, O. & Kar, M. (2009), “Finansal Gelişmenin Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme: Literatür Taraması”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 3(2), 31-62.
• Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1999), Comparing Financial Systems, Cambridge: The MIT Press.
• Altuzarra, A. (2015), “Measuring Unemployment Persistence by Age and Gender”, Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4, 110-133.
• Andersen, T. B. & Tarp, F. (2003), “Financial Liberalization, Financial Development and Economic Growth in LDCs”, Journal of International Development, 15(2), 189-209.
• Andrianova, S., Demetriades, P. & Shortland, A. (2008), “Government ownership of banks, institutions and financial development”, Journal of Development Economics, 85(1-2), 218-252.
• Arcand, J., Berkes, E. & Panizza, U. (2015), “Too Much Finance?”, Journal of Economic Growth, 20(2), 105-148.
• Arestis, P., Demetriades, P. O. & Luintel, K. B. (2001), “Financial Development and Growth: The Role of Stock Markets”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(1), 16-41.
• Arestis, P., Demetriades, P. O., Fattouh, B. & Mouratidis, K. (2002), “The Impact of Financial Liberalization Policies on Financial Development: Evidence from Developing Economies”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(2), 107-121.
• Aziz, J. & Duenwald, C. (2002), “Growth-Financial Intermediation Nexus in China”, International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper WP/02/194, November.
• Bagehot, W. [1873] (2015), Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market, Altenmünster: Jazzybee Verlag.
• Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. & Mestre, R. (1998), “Error-Correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-Equation Framework”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283.
• Barthelemy, J. C. & Varoudakis, A. (1996), “Economic Growth, Convergence Clubs, and the Role of Financial Development”, Oxford Economic Papers, 48(2), 300-328.
• Barro, R. (1990), “Government Spending in a Sample Model of Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 103-125.
• Bayer, C. & Hanck, C. (2013), “Combining Non-Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 34, 83-95.
• Beck, T. & Levine, R. (2004), “Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(3), 423-442.
• Bencivenga, V. R. & Smith, B. D. (1991), “Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth”, Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 195-209.
• Bencivenga, V. R. & Smith, B. D. (1993), “Some consequences of credit rationing in an endogenous growth model”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 17(1-2), 97-122.
• Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R. (2000), “A New Database on Financial Development and Structure”, World Bank Economic Review, 14, 597-605.
• Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R. (2009), “Financial Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time: Data and Analysis”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 4943.
• Besci, Z. & Wang, P. (1997), “Financial Development and Growth. Economic Review”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, Vol. 82(4), 46-62.
• Bhide, A. (1993), “The Hidden Cost of Stock Market Liquidity”, Journal of Financial Economics, 34(1), 31-51.
• Bittencourt, M. (2011), “Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil”, Economic Modelling, 28(1-2), 91-99.
• Blackburn, K. & Hung, V. T. Y. (1998), “A Theory of Growth, Financial Development and Trade”, Economica, 65(257), 107-124.
• Boswijk, P. H. (1994), “Testing for an Unstable Root in Conditional and Structural Error Correction Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 63(1), 37-60.
• Boyd, J. H. & Prescott, E. C. (1986), “Financial Intermediary-Coalitions”, Journal of Economic Theory, 38(2), 211-232.
• Brownbridge, M., Kirkpatrick, C. H. & Maimbo, S. M. (2005), “Financial Regulation in Developing Countries: Policy and Recent Experience”, C. Green, C. Kirkpatrick and V. Murinde (eds.), in Finance and Development Surveys of Theory, Evidence and Policy, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 154-180.
• Buffie, E. F. (1984), “Financial Repression, the New Structuralists, and Stabilization Policy in Semi-Industrialized Economies”, Journal of Development Economics, 14(3), 305-322.
• Calderón, C. & Liu, L. (2003), “The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 321-334.
• Calvo, G. A. & Coricelli, F. (1992), “Stagflationary Effects of Stabilization Programs in Reforming Socialist Countries: Enterprise-Side and Household-Side Factors”, World Bank Economic Review, 6(1), 71-90.
• Capasso, S. (2004), “Financial Markets, Development and Economic Growth: Tales of Informational Asymmetries”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 18(3), 267-292.
• Cecchetti, G. & Kharroubi, E. (2012), “Reassessing the Impact of Finance on Growth”, BIS Working Papers, 381, Bank for International Settlements.
• Chandrasekhar, C. P. (2004), “Financial Liberalization, Fragility and the Socialization of Risk: Can Capital Controls Work?”, G24 Discussion Paper, https://www.g24.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Financial-Liberalization-Fragility-and-the-Socialization-of-Risk.pdf, 20.01.2019.
• Chinn, M. D. & Ito, H. (2006), “What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions”, Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 163-192.
• Čihák, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Feyen, E. & Levine, R. (2012), “Benchmarking Financial Development around the World”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 6175.
• Clemente, J., Montañés, A. & Reyes, M. (1998), “Testing for a Unit Root in Variables with a Double Change in the Mean”, Economic Letters, 59(2), 175-182.
• Deidda, L. & Fattouh, B. (2002), “Non-Linearity Between Finance and Growth”, Economic Letters, 74(3), 339-345.
• Demetriades, P. O. (2008), “New Perspectives on Finance and Growth”, University of Leicester Working Papers, No. 08/14, April.
• Demetriades, P. O. & Hussein, K. A. (1996), “Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-Series Evidence from 16 Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 51(2), 387-411.
• Demetriades, P. O. & Luintel, K. B. (1996), “Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banking Sector Controls: Evidence from India”, The Economic Journal, 106(435), 359-374.
• Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R. (2001), Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Comparison of Banks, Markets, and Development, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
• Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
• Fisher, R. (1932). Statistical Methods for Research Workers. London: Oliver and Boyd.
• Friedman, M. & Schwartz, A. J. (1963), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Fry, M. J. (1978), “Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10(4), 464-475.
• Fry, M. J. (1995), Money, Interest, and Banking in Economic Development, 2nd ed., Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press.
• Galbis, V. (1977), “Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in Less-Developed Countries: A Theoretical Approach”, Journal of Development Studies, 13(2), 58-72.
• Galindo, A., Schiantarelli, F. & Weiss, A. (2007), “Does Financial Liberalization Improve the Allocation of Investment? Micro Evidence from Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 83(2), 562-587.
• Gerschenkron, A. (1962), Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.
• Glynn, J., Perrera, N. & Verma, R. (2007), “Unit Root Tests and Structural Breaks: A Survey with Applications”, Research Online, University of Wollongong, 455, http://ro.uow.edu.au/commpapers/455, 29.12.2018.
• Goldsmith, R. W. (1969), Financial Structure and Development, New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press.
• Graff, M. (2001), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Corporatist and Liberal Market Economies”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 39(2), 47-69.
• Granger, C. W. J. (1988), “Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39(1-2), 199-211.
• Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B. (1990), “Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 1076-1107.
• Greenwood, J. & Smith, B. D. (1997), “Financial markets in development, and the development of financial markets”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(1), 145-181.
• Gregory, A. W., Haug, A. A. & Lomuto, N. (2004), “Mixed Signals Among Tests for Cointegration”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(1), 89-98.
• Gurley, J. G. & Shaw, E. S. (1955), “Financial Aspects of Economic Development”, The American Economic Review, 45(4), 515-538.
• Gygli, S., Haelg, F. Potrafke, N. & Sturm, J. (2019), “The KOF Globalization Index – Revisited”, CESifo Working Paper Series, 7430, CESifo Group Munich.
• Habibullah, M. & Eng, Y. (2006), “Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? A Panel Data Dynamic Analysis for the Asian Developing Countries”, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 11(4), 377-393.
• Hassan, M. K., Sanchez, B. & Yu, J. S. (2011), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Panel Data”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51(1), 88-104.
• Hicks, J. (1969), A Theory of Economic History, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
• Huchet-Bourdon, M., Mouel, C. L. & Vijil, M. (2018), “The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue”, The World Economy, 41(1), 59-76.
• Ireland, P. N. (1994), “Money and Growth: An Alternative Approach”, American Economic Review, 84(1), 47-65.
• Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
• Kang, S. J & Sawada, Y. (2000), “Financial Repression and External Openness in an Endogenous Growth Model”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 9(4), 427-443.
• Kapur, B. K. (1976), “Alternative Stabilization Policies for Less-developed Economies”, Journal of Political Economy, 84(4), 777-796.
• Kar, M. & Pentecost, E. J. (2000), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Further Evidence on the Causality Issue”, Economic Research Paper, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, No. 00/27.
• Kar, M., Nazlıoglu, S. & Ağır, H. (2014), “Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Economic Growth: Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis”, Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, 8(1), 63-86.
• Keynes, J. M. (1964), The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, San Diego, New York, London: A Harvest Book.
• King, R. G. & Levine, R. (1993a), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737.
• King, R. G. & Levine, R. (1993b), “Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 513-542.
• Klein, M. W. & Olivei, G. P. (2008), “Capital account liberalization, financial depth, and economic growth”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(6), 861-875.
• Kuznets, S. (1955), “Economic Growth and Income Inequality”, American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.
• La Porta R., Lopezde-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. & Wisny, R. W. (1998), “Law and Finance”, Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1113-1155.
• La Porta R., Lopezde-Silanes, F. & Shleifer, A. (2002), “Government Ownership of Banks”, The Journal of Finance, 57(1), 265-301.
• Levine, R. (1991), “Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy”, The Journal of Finance, 46(4), 1445-1465.
• Levine, R. (1997), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688-726.
• Levine, R. (2004), “Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper Series, No: 10766, September.
• Levine, R. & Zervos, S. (1998), “Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 88(3), 537-558.
• Lewis, A. (1955), The Theory of Economic Growth, London: Allen and Unwin.
• Lucas, R. E. (1988), “On the Mechanisms of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
• Luintel, K. B. & Khan, M. (1999), “A Quantitative Reassessment of the Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from a Multivariate VAR”, Journal of Development Economics, 60(2), 381-405.
• Mathieson, D. J. (1980), “Financial Reform and Stabilization Policy in a Developing Economy”, Journal of Development Economics, 7(3), 359-395.
• McKinnon, R. I. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington: The Brookings Institution.
• McKinnon, R. I. (1991), The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.
• Minsky, H. P. (1975), “Financial Resources in a Fragile Financial Environment”, Challenge, 18(3), 6-13.
• Murari, K. (2017), “Financial Development-Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from South Asian Middle-income Countries”, Global Business Review, 18(4), 924-935.
• Murinde, V. & Eng, F. S. H. (1994), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Singapore: Demand-Following or Supply-Leading?”, Applied Financial Economics, 4(6), 391-404.
• Neusser, K. & Kugler, M. (1998), “Manufacturing Growth and Financial Development: Evidence from OECD Countries”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 638-646.
• Ozturk, İ. (2008), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(1), 85-98.
• Pagano, M. (1993), “Financial Markets and Growth: An Overview”, European Economic Review, 37(1-2), 613-622.
• Patrick, H. T. (1966), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189.
• Perron, P. (1990), “Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series With a Changing Mean”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(2), 153-162.
• Puryan, V. (2017), “The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth, Banking Sector Development and Stock Market Development in Selected Middle-East and North African Countries”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 575-580.
• Rafindadi, A. A. (2015), “Econometric Prediction on the Effects of Financial Development and Trade Openness on the German Energy Consumption: A Startling Revelation from the Data Set”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(1), 182-196.
• Rebelo, S. (1991), “Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500-521.
• Renelt, D. (1991), “Economic Growth: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature”, Policy Research Working Paper Series, WPS 678, Washington D.C.: World Bank.
• Rioja, F. & Valev, N. (2004), “Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development”, Economic Inquiry, 42(1), 127-140.
• Robinson, J. (1952), The Rate of Interest and Other Essays, London: Macmillan.
• Romer, P. M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
• Romer, P. M. (1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71-102.
• Roubini, N. & Sala-i Martin, X. (1992), “Financial Repression and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 39(1), 5-30.
• Saatcioğlu C. & Korap, L. (2007), “Turkish Money Demand, Revisited: Some Implications for Inflation and Currency Substitution Under Structural Breaks”, Boğaziçi Journal, 21(1-2), 107-124.
• Saint-Paul, G. (1992), “Technological Choice, Financial Markets and Economic Development”, European Economic Review, 36(4), 763-781.
• Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J. & Ghosh, S. (2015), “Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries”, World Development, 68, 66-81.
• Schumpeter, J. [1934] (1981), The Theory of Economic Development, London: Routledge.
• Seven, U. & Yetkiner, H. (2016), “Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Does Income Matter?”, Economic Systems, 40(1), 39-58.
• Shaw, E. S. (1973), Financial Deepening in Economic Development, Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.
• Solow, R. M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
• Stern, N. (1989), “The Economics of Development: A Survey”, The Economic Journal, 99(397), 597-685.
• Svirydzenka, K. (2016), “Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development”, International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper WP/16/5, January.
• Targan, Ü. (1996), Finans Kesiminin Reel Sektöre Kaynak Yaratma Kapasitesi: Türkiye Örneği, İstanbul Ticaret Odası, No. 31.
• Thangavelu, S. M. & Ang, B. J. (2004), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Analysis”, Empirical Economics, 29(2), 247-260.
• Van Wijnbergen, S. (1983), “Credit Policy, Inflation and Growth in a Financially Repressed Economy”, Journal of Development Economics, 13(1-2), 45-65.
• Waheed, M., Alam, T. & Ghauri, S. P. (2006), “Structural Breaks and Unit Root: Evidence from Pakistani Macroeconomic Time Series”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No. 1797.
• World Bank. (1989), World Development Report 1989: Financial Systems and Development, New York, Oxford University Press.
• Wu, J., Hou, H. & Cheng, S. (2010), “The Dynamic Impacts of Financial Institutions on Economic Growth: Evidence from the European Union”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(3), 879-891.
• Xu, Z. (2000), “Financial Development, Investment and Economic Growth”, Economic Inquiry, 38(2), 331-344.
• Yaprakli, S. (2007), “Türkiye’de Finansal Dışa Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 5, 67-89.
• Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.