Asimetriler ve Makroekonomik Şoklar: Kriz Öncesi Dönem ve Avrupa İçin Kanıtlar

Year 2020, Volume: 28 Issue: 44, 283 - 317, 19.04.2020

Naib Alakbarov Utku Utkulu

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.02.13

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu yazının asıl amacı, borç krizinin temelini açıklamak ve kriz öncesi dönemde Avrupa Birliği’ne üye ve aday ülkeler için asimetrik arz ve talep şoklarını analiz ederek ülkeler arasındaki farklılıkları incelemektir. Bayoumi ve Eichengreen (1993, 1997) ve Blanchard ve Quah (1989) ‘un yolunu takiben yapılan hesaplamalar Yunanistan’ın en büyük arz şoklarına sahip olduğunu, Türkiye’nin ise en büyük talep şoklarına sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Yapısal VAR analizi sonuçları incelendiğinde, Yunanistan’ın talep şoklarındaki düzensizliklere karşı Birleşik Krallık ile birlikte en düşük uyarlanma hızına sahip ülkeler olduğu görülmektedir. Diğer ülkeler ile kıyaslandığında borç krizi yaşayan ülkelerin karşılaştıkları arz ve talep şoklarının hem büyük olduğu hem de bu ülkelerin bu şoklara uyum hızlarının düşük olduğu görülmektedir.

Keywords

Arz ve Talep Şokları, Simetrik vs. Asimetrik Şoklar, Ayarlama Hızları, EMU, Optimum Para Birimi Alanı, Yapısal VAR (SVAR)

Asymmetries and Macroeconomic Shocks: The Pre-Crisis Period and Evidence for Europe

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to discover the underlying of the debt crisis and examine the cross-country differences by analyzing the asymmetric supply and demand shocks for the member and candidate countries of the European Union for the pre-crisis period. Following the path of Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1993, 1997) and Blanchard and Quah (1989), the calculations show us that Greece has the largest supply shocks, while Turkey has the largest demand shocks. By looking at the impulse response functions associated with the SVARs, it is clear that Greece has the lowest adjustment speed to demand disturbances followed by the United Kingdom. Those countries which experienced debt crises in the EMU, seemed to have big supply and demand shocks and compared to other member countries the adjustment speed of their economies to these shocks are slower.

Keywords

Supply and Demand Shocks, Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Shocks, Adjustment Speeds, the EMU, Optimum Currency Area, Structural VAR (SVAR)

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