Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis

Year 2020, Volume: 28 Issue: 45, 25 - 36, 30.07.2020

Asiye Tütüncü , Burak Şahingöz

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02

Cited By: 3

Abstract

An arms race is the dynamic process followed by states in the acquisition of weapons. An arms race requires mutual military expenditures during this process to support the arms race hypothesis among states. This study elaborated on the arms race hypothesis between Turkey and Greece for the period 1960-2016 with the help of time-varying causality testing as well as bootstrap causality testing and asymmetric causality testing. The bootstrap causality test results proved that there is a unidirectional causality relation between Greece’s defense expenditures and Turkey’s defense expenditures, whereas the asymmetric causality testing results proved that a mutual relationship exists between the two states’ defense expenditures. Further, according to the time-varying causality testing results, the presence of an arms race can be confirmed between the two countries for the periods 1975-1990 and 2000-2014.

Keywords

Arms Race, Military Expenditures, Asymmetric Causality, Time-Varying Causality

Türkiye ve Yunanistan Arasındaki Silahlanma Yarışı: Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

Silahlanma yarışı, ülkelerin silah edinimi konusunda yaşadıkları dinamik süreci ifade etmektedir. Ülkeler arasında silahlanma yarışı hipotezinin geçerli olabilmesi için bu süreçte askeri harcamaların karşılıklı etkileşimi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ile Yunanistan arasındaki silahlanma yarışı hipotezi, 1960-2016 dönemi Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testlerinin yanı sıra zamanla değişen nedensellik testi yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testi sonuçları, Yunanistan’ın savunma harcamalarından Türkiye’nin savunma harcamalarına tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu, asimetrik nedensellik testi ise iki ülkenin savunma harcamaları arasında saklı ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Zamanla değişen nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre 1975-1990 ve 2000-2014 dönemlerinde iki ülke arasında silahlanma yarışının geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Silahlanma Yarışı, Savunma Harcamaları, Asimetrik Nedensellik, Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik

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