Year 2020, Volume 28 , Issue 45, Pages 25 - 36 2020-07-30

Türkiye ve Yunanistan Arasındaki Silahlanma Yarışı: Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizi
Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis

Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ [1] , Burak ŞAHİNGÖZ [2]


Silahlanma yarışı, ülkelerin silah edinimi konusunda yaşadıkları dinamik süreci ifade etmektedir. Ülkeler arasında silahlanma yarışı hipotezinin geçerli olabilmesi için bu süreçte askeri harcamaların karşılıklı etkileşimi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ile Yunanistan arasındaki silahlanma yarışı hipotezi, 1960-2016 dönemi Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testlerinin yanı sıra zamanla değişen nedensellik testi yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testi sonuçları, Yunanistan’ın savunma harcamalarından Türkiye’nin savunma harcamalarına tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu, asimetrik nedensellik testi ise iki ülkenin savunma harcamaları arasında saklı ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Zamanla değişen nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre 1975-1990 ve 2000-2014 dönemlerinde iki ülke arasında silahlanma yarışının geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

An arms race is the dynamic process followed by states in the acquisition of weapons. An arms race requires mutual military expenditures during this process to support the arms race hypothesis among states. This study elaborated on the arms race hypothesis between Turkey and Greece for the period 1960-2016 with the help of time-varying causality testing as well as bootstrap causality testing and asymmetric causality testing. The bootstrap causality test results proved that there is a unidirectional causality relation between Greece’s defense expenditures and Turkey’s defense expenditures, whereas the asymmetric causality testing results proved that a mutual relationship exists between the two states’ defense expenditures. Further, according to the time-varying causality testing results, the presence of an arms race can be confirmed between the two countries for the periods 1975-1990 and 2000-2014.
  • Andreou, A. S. & G. A. Zombanakis (2011), “Financial versus Human Resources in The Greek–Turkısh Arms Race 10 Years on: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks”, Defence and Peace Economics, 22 (4), 459-469.
  • Balcilar, M., Z. A. Ozdemir, & Y. Arslanturk (2010), “Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Causal Nexus Viewed through a Bootstrap Rolling Window”, Energy Economics, 32, 1398-1410.
  • Brauer, J. (2002) “Survey and Review of the Defense Economics Literature on Greece and Turkey: What have We Learned?”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13 (2), 85-107.
  • Collier, P. & A. Hoeffler (2002), “Military Expenditure: Threats, Aid, and Arms Races”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2927, 1-23.
  • Dickey, D. A. & W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49 (4), 1057- 1072.
  • Dunne, J. P., N. Eftychia & R. P. Smith (2005), “Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?”, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 11 (2), 1-35.
  • Georgiou, G. (1990), “Is There an Arms Race Between Greece and Turkey? Some Preliminary Econometric Results”, Cyprus Journal of Economics, 3 (1), 58–73.
  • Georgiou, G. M., P. T. Kapopoulos & S. Lazaretou (1996), “Modelling Greek-Turkish Rivalry: An Empirical Investigation of Defence SpendingDynamics”, Journal of Peace Research, 33 (2), 229-239.
  • Granger, C. W. J. & G. Yoon (2002), “Hidden Cointegration”, University of California Economics Working Paper No. 2002-02.
  • Hacker, R. S. & A. Hatemi-J (2006), “Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”, Applied Economics, 38 (13), 1489-1500.
  • Harari, Y. N. (2015), Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, New York: Harper Collins.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012), “Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application”, Empirical Economy, 43, 447-456.
  • Hiro Y. T. & Taku Y. (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250. Intriligator, M. D. & D. L. Brito (2000), “Arms Race”, Defence and Peace Economics 11 (1), 45-54.
  • Jervis, R. (1978), “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma”, World Politics, 30 (2), 167-214.
  • Kollias, C. (1991), “Creece and Turkey: The Case Study of an Arms Race from The Greek Perspective”, SPOUDAI-Journal of Economics and Business, 41 (1), 64-81.
  • Kollias, C. & S. Makrydakis (1997), “Is There a Greek-Turkish Arms Race?: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests”, Defence and Peace Economics, 8 (4), 355-379.
  • Kollias, C. & S. Paleologou (2002), “Is There a Greek-Turkish Arms Race? Some Further Empirical Results from Causality Tests”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13 (4), 321-328.
  • Lee, J. & M. C. Strazicich (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 (4), 1082-1089.
  • Majeski, S. J. & D. Jones (1981), “Arms Race Modeling: Causality Analysis and Model Specification”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 25 (2), 259-288.
  • Majeski, S. J. (1985), “Expectations and Arms Races”, American Journal of Political Science, 29 (2), 217-245.
  • Öcal, N. (2002), “Asymmetric Effects of Military Expenditure between Turkey And Greece”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13 (5), 405-416.
  • Öcal, N. & J. Yıldırım (2009), “Arms Race between Turkey and Greece: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 20 (2), 123-129.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. & P. Perron (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75 (2), 335-346.
  • Paparas, D., C. Richter & A. Paparas (2016), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in Greece and the Arms Race between Greece and Turkey”, Journal of Economics Library, 3 (1), 38-56.
  • Richardson, L. F. (1960), Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of Causes and Origins of War, Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press.
  • Sahin, H. & O. Ozsoy (2008), “Arms Race between Greece and Turkey: A Markov Switching Approach”, Defence and Peace Economics, 19 (3), 209-216.
  • Smith, R., M. Sola & F. Spagnola (2000), “The Prisoner's Dilemma and Regime-Switching in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race”, Journal of Peace Research, 37 (6), 737-750.
Primary Language en
Subjects Social
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0001-9473-9401
Author: Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ
Institution: Karadeniz Technical University
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-4179-1609
Author: Burak ŞAHİNGÖZ (Primary Author)
Institution: Karadeniz Technical University
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : July 30, 2020

Bibtex @research article { sosyoekonomi607394, journal = {Sosyoekonomi}, issn = {1305-5577}, address = {}, publisher = {Sosyoekonomi Society}, year = {2020}, volume = {28}, pages = {25 - 36}, doi = {10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02}, title = {Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis}, key = {cite}, author = {Tütüncü, Asiye and Şahi̇ngöz, Burak} }
APA Tütüncü, A , Şahi̇ngöz, B . (2020). Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis . Sosyoekonomi , 28 (45) , 25-36 . DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02
MLA Tütüncü, A , Şahi̇ngöz, B . "Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis" . Sosyoekonomi 28 (2020 ): 25-36 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/56258/607394>
Chicago Tütüncü, A , Şahi̇ngöz, B . "Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis". Sosyoekonomi 28 (2020 ): 25-36
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis AU - Asiye Tütüncü , Burak Şahi̇ngöz Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02 DO - 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02 T2 - Sosyoekonomi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 25 EP - 36 VL - 28 IS - 45 SN - 1305-5577- M3 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02 UR - https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02 Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Sosyoekonomi Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis %A Asiye Tütüncü , Burak Şahi̇ngöz %T Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis %D 2020 %J Sosyoekonomi %P 1305-5577- %V 28 %N 45 %R doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02 %U 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02
ISNAD Tütüncü, Asiye , Şahi̇ngöz, Burak . "Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis". Sosyoekonomi 28 / 45 (July 2020): 25-36 . https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.02
AMA Tütüncü A , Şahi̇ngöz B . Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis. Sosyoekonomi. 2020; 28(45): 25-36.
Vancouver Tütüncü A , Şahi̇ngöz B . Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis. Sosyoekonomi. 2020; 28(45): 25-36.