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Enflasyon Algısını Etkileyen Faktörler: İşletme ve İktisat Lisans Öğrencileri Üzerine Bir Çalışma

Year 2020, Volume: 28 Issue: 45, 245 - 263, 30.07.2020
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.14

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı iktisat ve işletme lisans öğrencilerinin enflasyon algısının arkasında yatan faktörleri araştırmaktır. Bu bağlamda, ekonomi eğitimi, sosyo-demografik koşullar, bilişsel yetenekler, finansal durum ve tüketim alışkanlıkları gibi faktörlerin enflasyon algısı üzerine etkisi incelenmektedir. Ampirik bulgular ekonomi öğrencilerinin enflasyon oranını ortalamada resmi orandan daha yüksek tahmin ettiğini ancak enflasyon oranı ile ilgili algılarının diğer öğrencilere göre gerçek enflasyon oranına daha yakın olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları ekonomik okur yazarlık, finansal durum, cinsiyet, resmi rakamları açıklayan kuruma güven ve malların satın alma sıklığının da enflasyon algısı üzerinde etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

References

  • Arioli, R. & C. Bates & H. Dieden & I. Duca & R., Friz & C. Gayer & , G. Kenny& A. Meyler & I. Pavlova (2017), “EU consumers’ quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations: an evaluation”, European Central Bank Occasional Paper Series No 186 (April 2017), < https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op186.en.pdf?bc91d1bc6ad64614b2d76abbd884b1ba >, 09.10.2018.
  • Ashton, M. J. (2012), ““Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions”, Business Economics, 47(1), 14–26.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007), “Inflation expectations and inflation forecasting”, Speech at the Monetary Economics Workshop of NBER Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070710a.htm>, 09.10.2018.
  • Brachinger, H. W. (2008), “A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(4), 433–457.
  • Bryan, M. & G. Venkatu (2001), “The curiously different inflation perspectives of men and women”, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, November.
  • Cavallo, A. & G. Cruces &, R. Perez-Truglia (2017), “Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(3), 1–35.
  • Del Giovane, P. & S. Fabiani & R. Sabbatini (2008), “What’s behind ‘inflation perceptions’? A survey-based analysis of Italian consumers”, Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione, 655, January.
  • Del Giovane, P. & S. Fabiani & R. Sabbatini (2009), “What’s behind ‘inflation perceptions’? A survey-based analysis of Italian consumers”, Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia, Nuova Serie. 68(1), 25–52.
  • Detmeister, A. & D. Lebow & E. Peneva (2016), “Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations”, FEDS Notes, Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.,<https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1882>, 5.11.2017.
  • Döhring, B. & A. Mordonu (2007), “What drives inflation perceptions? A dynamic panel data analysis”, European Economy-Economic Papers, 284, 1–24, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Dräger, L. (2015), “Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden – Are media reports the missing link?”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(5), 681–700.
  • Duffy, D. & P. D. Lunn (2009), “The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers”, The Economic and Social Review, 40(2), 139–163.
  • Fritzer, F. & F. Rumler (2015), “Determinants of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: An Empirical Analysis for Austria”, Monetary Policy & the Economy, (1), 11–26.
  • Georganas, S. & J. P. Healy & N. Li (2014), “Frequency bias in consumers’ perceptions’ of inflation: An experimental study”, European Economic Review, 67, 144–158.
  • Gürkaynak, R. S. & A. Levin & E. Swanson (2010), “Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? Evidence from the US, UK, and Sweden”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(6), 1208–1242.
  • Hayo, B. & F. Neumeier (2018), “Households’ Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: Survey Evidence from New Zealand”, MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series, 5-2018, University of Marburg.
  • Jonung, L. (1981), “Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden”, The American Economic Review, 71(5), 961–968.
  • Kahneman, D. & A. Tversky (1979), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk”, Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292.
  • Kose, M. A. & H. Matsuoka & U. Panizza & . D. Vorisek (2019), “Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence”, CAMA Working Paper, 29/2019, March 2019, <https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-03/29_2019_kose_matsuoka_panizza_vorisek.pdf>, 25.10.2019.
  • Łyziak, T. & M. Paloviita (2017), “Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data”, European Journal of Political Economy, 46, 52-73.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2000), “Inflation targeting in emerging-market countries”, American Economic Review, 90 (2), 105-109.
  • Oral, E. (2016), “Measuring Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey”, Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, 2(1), 43–74.
  • Pierdzioch, C. & M. B. Reid & R. Gupta (2016), “Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding: Evidence from South African survey data”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 62, 42-50.
  • Ranyard, R. & F. Del Missier & N. Bonini & D. Duxbury & B. Summers (2008), “Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(4), 378-400.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1951), Economics: An Introductory Analysis, McGraw Hill Book Company Inc., New York.
  • Simon, H. A. (1990), “Bounded Rationality”, in Eatwell J., Milgate, M., Newman, P. (eds). The New Palgrave: Utility and Probability, Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Soybilgen, B. & E. Yazgan (2017), “An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey”, Central Bank Review, 17(1), 31–38.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (2019), <http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist>, 22.04.2019.
  • Van Der Klaauw, W. & W. Bruine De Bruin & G. Topa & S. Potter & M. Bryan (2008), “Rethinking the Measurement of Household Inflation Expectations: Preliminary Findings”, Staff Reports, 359 December (2008), Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students

Year 2020, Volume: 28 Issue: 45, 245 - 263, 30.07.2020
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.14

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the factors behind the inflation perceptions of undergraduate students of economics and business. Factors, such as education in economics, socio- demographic conditions, cognitive abilities, financial situation and consumption habits are investigated. The empirical evidence suggests that economics students on the average estimate a higher level of inflation than the official rate however their perceptions are closer to actual rates compared to the other students. The findings reveal that economic literacy, financial situation, gender, and the degree of trust regarding official measures of inflation, and purchase frequency of goods also influence inflation perceptions significantly.

References

  • Arioli, R. & C. Bates & H. Dieden & I. Duca & R., Friz & C. Gayer & , G. Kenny& A. Meyler & I. Pavlova (2017), “EU consumers’ quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations: an evaluation”, European Central Bank Occasional Paper Series No 186 (April 2017), < https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op186.en.pdf?bc91d1bc6ad64614b2d76abbd884b1ba >, 09.10.2018.
  • Ashton, M. J. (2012), ““Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions”, Business Economics, 47(1), 14–26.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007), “Inflation expectations and inflation forecasting”, Speech at the Monetary Economics Workshop of NBER Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070710a.htm>, 09.10.2018.
  • Brachinger, H. W. (2008), “A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(4), 433–457.
  • Bryan, M. & G. Venkatu (2001), “The curiously different inflation perspectives of men and women”, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, November.
  • Cavallo, A. & G. Cruces &, R. Perez-Truglia (2017), “Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(3), 1–35.
  • Del Giovane, P. & S. Fabiani & R. Sabbatini (2008), “What’s behind ‘inflation perceptions’? A survey-based analysis of Italian consumers”, Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione, 655, January.
  • Del Giovane, P. & S. Fabiani & R. Sabbatini (2009), “What’s behind ‘inflation perceptions’? A survey-based analysis of Italian consumers”, Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia, Nuova Serie. 68(1), 25–52.
  • Detmeister, A. & D. Lebow & E. Peneva (2016), “Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations”, FEDS Notes, Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.,<https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.1882>, 5.11.2017.
  • Döhring, B. & A. Mordonu (2007), “What drives inflation perceptions? A dynamic panel data analysis”, European Economy-Economic Papers, 284, 1–24, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Dräger, L. (2015), “Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden – Are media reports the missing link?”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(5), 681–700.
  • Duffy, D. & P. D. Lunn (2009), “The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers”, The Economic and Social Review, 40(2), 139–163.
  • Fritzer, F. & F. Rumler (2015), “Determinants of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: An Empirical Analysis for Austria”, Monetary Policy & the Economy, (1), 11–26.
  • Georganas, S. & J. P. Healy & N. Li (2014), “Frequency bias in consumers’ perceptions’ of inflation: An experimental study”, European Economic Review, 67, 144–158.
  • Gürkaynak, R. S. & A. Levin & E. Swanson (2010), “Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? Evidence from the US, UK, and Sweden”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(6), 1208–1242.
  • Hayo, B. & F. Neumeier (2018), “Households’ Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: Survey Evidence from New Zealand”, MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series, 5-2018, University of Marburg.
  • Jonung, L. (1981), “Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden”, The American Economic Review, 71(5), 961–968.
  • Kahneman, D. & A. Tversky (1979), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk”, Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292.
  • Kose, M. A. & H. Matsuoka & U. Panizza & . D. Vorisek (2019), “Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence”, CAMA Working Paper, 29/2019, March 2019, <https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-03/29_2019_kose_matsuoka_panizza_vorisek.pdf>, 25.10.2019.
  • Łyziak, T. & M. Paloviita (2017), “Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data”, European Journal of Political Economy, 46, 52-73.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2000), “Inflation targeting in emerging-market countries”, American Economic Review, 90 (2), 105-109.
  • Oral, E. (2016), “Measuring Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey”, Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, 2(1), 43–74.
  • Pierdzioch, C. & M. B. Reid & R. Gupta (2016), “Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding: Evidence from South African survey data”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 62, 42-50.
  • Ranyard, R. & F. Del Missier & N. Bonini & D. Duxbury & B. Summers (2008), “Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(4), 378-400.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1951), Economics: An Introductory Analysis, McGraw Hill Book Company Inc., New York.
  • Simon, H. A. (1990), “Bounded Rationality”, in Eatwell J., Milgate, M., Newman, P. (eds). The New Palgrave: Utility and Probability, Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Soybilgen, B. & E. Yazgan (2017), “An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey”, Central Bank Review, 17(1), 31–38.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (2019), <http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist>, 22.04.2019.
  • Van Der Klaauw, W. & W. Bruine De Bruin & G. Topa & S. Potter & M. Bryan (2008), “Rethinking the Measurement of Household Inflation Expectations: Preliminary Findings”, Staff Reports, 359 December (2008), Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
There are 29 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Sule Gunduz 0000-0001-5484-5795

Seçkin Yıldırım This is me 0000-0003-1292-3446

M. Banu Durukan 0000-0002-3619-2732

Publication Date July 30, 2020
Submission Date October 25, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 28 Issue: 45

Cite

APA Gunduz, S., Yıldırım, S., & Durukan, M. B. (2020). An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students. Sosyoekonomi, 28(45), 245-263. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.14
AMA Gunduz S, Yıldırım S, Durukan MB. An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students. Sosyoekonomi. July 2020;28(45):245-263. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.14
Chicago Gunduz, Sule, Seçkin Yıldırım, and M. Banu Durukan. “An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students”. Sosyoekonomi 28, no. 45 (July 2020): 245-63. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.14.
EndNote Gunduz S, Yıldırım S, Durukan MB (July 1, 2020) An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students. Sosyoekonomi 28 45 245–263.
IEEE S. Gunduz, S. Yıldırım, and M. B. Durukan, “An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 45, pp. 245–263, 2020, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.14.
ISNAD Gunduz, Sule et al. “An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students”. Sosyoekonomi 28/45 (July 2020), 245-263. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.14.
JAMA Gunduz S, Yıldırım S, Durukan MB. An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students. Sosyoekonomi. 2020;28:245–263.
MLA Gunduz, Sule et al. “An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 28, no. 45, 2020, pp. 245-63, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.03.14.
Vancouver Gunduz S, Yıldırım S, Durukan MB. An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students. Sosyoekonomi. 2020;28(45):245-63.