Are Maastricht Criteria Guarantee for the Future of the European Union? Germany - United Kingdom - Spain - Greece Analysis (1998-2018)
Year 2021,
Volume: 29 Issue: 47, 383 - 406, 25.01.2021
Çağdaş Bektaş
,
Özgür Saraç
Abstract
Maastricht Criteria which are actually known as Convergence Criteria can be regarded as the most popular embodiment of fiscal policy rules. Fiscal rules not only put limits on politicians who are using public resources but also target improving macroeconomic performance of countries. Maastricht Criteria can be an example for this second type and consist of five rules. Two of these rules carry fiscal characteristics while other three rules have economic characteristics. When governments do not obey these rules, in other words, when irregularity occurs, they face various sanctions. In this study, twentyyear performance of four selected countries are examined. In this respect, deviations (if any), are taken into account together with their reasons and the implemented sanctions are analysed. According to the results, it is discussed whether Maastricht Criteria can be a kind of guaranty for the future of the European Union or not.
References
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- Berber, M. & S. Artan (2004), Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği, Turkish Economic Association, <http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/M-BERBER-S-ARTAN-INF.pdf>, 25.10.2019.
- Biraschi, P. (2008), “Searching for the Optimal EMU Fiscal Rule: An Ex-post Analysis of the SGP Reform Proposals”, Brussels: Ministry of Economy and Finance Working Papers.
- Buchanan, J. (1991), Kamu Tercihi ve Anayasal İktisat, Çev. D.E.Ü. Maliye Bölümü Öğretim Üyeleri, İzmir, Aklıselim Ofset Tesisleri.
- Buiter, W. (1983), Deficits, Crowding out and Inflation: The Simple Analytics, Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Ela, M. (2018), “Ekonomik ve Parasal Birlik’te Büyük Ülkeler Neden Mali Kurallara Uymamaktadır?”, Adıyaman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 29, 727-752.
- Erdönmez, P.A. (2009), “Küresel Kriz ve Ülkeler Tarafından Alınan Önlemler Kronolojisi”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 68, 85-101.
- EU (1997), Resolution of the European Council on the Stability and Growth Pact C 236, 17 June, Amsterdam, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM:l25021>, 21.10.2019.
- EU (2004), Recommendation for a Council recommendation to Greece with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive government deficit, 5 September, Brussels, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52004SC0816>, 23.10.2019).
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- EU (2005), “Amending Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 on the Strengthening of the Surveillance of Budgetary Positions and the Surveillance and Coordination of Economic Policies”, Council Regulation (EC) No 1055/2005 of 27 June 2005, Strazburg, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1412159031745&uri=CELEX:32005R1055>, 25.10.2019.
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- EU (2013), Regulation (EU) No 473/2013 of the “European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on Common Provisions for Monitoring and Assessing Draft Budgetary Plans and Ensuring the Correction of Excessive Deficit of the Member States in the Euro Area”, Strazburg, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32013R0473&from=EN>, 21.10.2019.
- EU (2015), “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Central Bank, the Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank Making the Best Use of the Flexibılity within the Existing Rules of the Stability and Growth Pact”, Autonomous Act,13th January, Strasbourg, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52015DC0012&from=EN>, 21.10.2019.
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- Eurostat (2019) İstatistikler, <https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database>, 25.10.2019.
- Fisher, S. (1993), “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, Journel of Monetary Economics, 32, 485-512.
- Günay, A. & A. Özen (2002), “Avrupa Birliği’nde Mali Disiplinin Sağlanmasına Yönelik Maastricht Kriterlerinin Anayasal İktisat Perspektifinden Değerlendirilmesi”, DEÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 4 (2), 68-82.
- Güreşçi, G. & A. Oğuz (2012), “2008 Küresel Kriz Sürecinde Avrupa Birliği Birlik Olabildi Mi?”, Teacongress.com, <http://teacongress.org/papers2012/OGUZ-PEHLIVAN.pdf>, 16.10.2019.
- Haan, J.B. & H. Berger & D. Jansen (2004), “Why has the Stability and Growth Pact Failed?”, International Finance, 7(2), 235-260.
- Karluk, S.R. & Ö. Tonus (1998), “Avrupa Birliği Euro ve Geleceği”, Anadolu Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 14(1-2), 261-293.
- Kennedy, S. & J. Robbins & F. Delorme (2001), The Role of Fiscal Rules in Determining Fiscal Performans, Bank of Italia, <http://www.bancaditalia.it/studiricerche/convegni/atti/fisc_rules/session1/23726_kenn_robbins_&_delorme.pdf>, 18.05.2015.
- Kopits, G. & S. Symansky (1998), Fiscal Policy Rules, Washington D.C., IMF.
- Kopits, G. (2001), Fiscal Rules: Useful Policy Framework or Unnecessary Ornament, Washington D.C., IMF.
- Masson, P. & C. Pattillo (2003), “Monetary Union in West Africa: An Agency of Restraint for Fiscal Policies?”, Journal of African Economies, 11(3), 387-412.
- Mishkin, F.S. (1997), “Strategies for Controlling Inflation”, RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: P. Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Schaechter, A. & T. Kinda & N. Budina & A. Weber (2012), “Fiscal Rules in Responset other Crisis-Toward the ‘Next-Generation’ Rules, A New Dataset”, IMF Working Paper 187, <https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12187.pdf>, 25.10.2019.
- Schioppa, F.K.P. (2006), “The 2005 Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Too Little, Too Late?”, Bruges European Economic Research Papers, No. 6.
- Seda, E. (2013), Euro Bölgesi Borç Krizi ve Almanya, ASEM,16 Nisan, Ankara, <http://asem.org.tr/tr/publication/details/48/Euro-B%C3%B6lgesi-Bor%C3%A7-Krizi-ve-Almanya>, 25.10.2019.
- TC ABB (2011), AB Ekonomik Yönetişim Sisteminde Yeni Dönem, Ankara.
- TC ABB (2012), Yunanistan’ın Euro Bölgesinden Ayrılmasının Olası Ekonomik Etkileri, Ankara.
- TC Maliye Bakanlığı (2011), “Küresel Ekonomik Kriz Sonrası Mali Konsolidasyon ve Sermaye Hareketlerinin Kontrolüne Yönelik Politikalar”, SGB Araştırma Raporu, Ankara.
- The Guardian (2010), Greece debt crisis: timeline, 5 October, <https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/may/05/greece-debt-crisis-timeline>, 25.10.2019.
- Uçar, Ö. (2012), Yunanistan’ın Euro Bölgesi’nden Ayrılmasının Olası Ekonomik Etkileri, TCABB, <https://www.ab.gov.tr/files/EMPB/grexit_impact_on_turkey_print_version.pdf>, 23.10.2019.
- UK Reuters (2018), UK Inflation Rises for First Time in 2018, Seen Falling Soon, 18 August, <https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-economy-inflation/uk-inflation-rises-for-first-time-in-2018-seen-falling-soon-idUKKBN1L00SB>, 23.10.2019.
- Vural, İ.Y. (2007), “Mali Disiplinin ve Ekonomik İstikrarın Sağlanmasında Yeni Bir Araç: Mali Kurallar”, içinde: Kurumsal Maliye Politikası, Ankara: Seçkin Yayınevi, 97-118.
Maastricht Kriterleri Avrupa Birliği’nin Geleceğinin Teminatı mı? Almanya - Britanya - İspanya - Yunanistan Analizi (1998-2018)
Year 2021,
Volume: 29 Issue: 47, 383 - 406, 25.01.2021
Çağdaş Bektaş
,
Özgür Saraç
Abstract
Aslında birer Yakınsama Kriteri olma özelliği gösteren Maastricht Kriterleri, kurallı maliye politikasının en somut ve bir o kadar da popüler örneği konumundadır. Mali kurallar, kamusal kaynakları kullanan politikacıları sınırlandırma özelliğinin yanı sıra makroekonomik performansın iyileştirilmesini hedef alır. İkinci tipe örnek olan Maastricht Kriterleri, ikisi mali ve üçü iktisadi özellik gösteren toplam beş kuraldan oluşur. Devletlerin sergilediği performansların kurallara uymaması, yani yaşanan kuralsızlık, çeşitli yaptırımlara tabidir. Çalışmada seçilen dört ülkenin yirmi yıl boyunca sergilediği performanslar incelenmiştir. Buna göre, varsa oluşan sapmalar, nedenleriyle ele alınarak ne gibi yaptırımlar uygulandığı araştırılmış ve ulaşılan bilgiler ışığında Maastricht Kriterleri’nin Avrupa Birliği’nin geleceği için bir tür teminat olup olmadığı tartışılmıştır.
References
- Afşar, M. & E. Doğan (2017), “Uzun Dönem Faiz Oranlarının Belirleyiciliği: OECD Ülkelerine Yönelik Bir Panel Veri Analizi”, Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 5, 103-115.
- Alesina, A. & R. Perotti (1999), Budget Deficits and Budget Instutions, Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performence, London: The University of Chicago Pres Ltd.
- AMB (2000), Convergence Report, May 1, Frankfurt, <https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/convergence/html/index.en.html>, 21.10.2019.
- Aysu, A. (2009), “Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Maliye Politikası Kurallarının İhlaline İlişkin Başlıca Yaptırımlar”, Maliye Dergisi, 158(1), 464-481.
- Balzi, B. (2010), “Greek Debt Crisis: How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt”, Der Spiegel, 8 Ocak, <http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-debt-crisis-how-goldman-sachs-helped-greece-to-mask-its-true-debt-a-676634.html>, 20.08.2015.
- Bayar, Y. (2015), “Kredi Derecelendirme Kuruluşları ve Yunanistan Borç Krizi”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 15, 41-58.
- Bektaş, Ç. (2016), “Kurallı Maliye Politikasının Eleştirisi Maastricht Kriterlerinin Analizi”, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İzmir: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
- Berber, M. & S. Artan (2004), Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği, Turkish Economic Association, <http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/M-BERBER-S-ARTAN-INF.pdf>, 25.10.2019.
- Biraschi, P. (2008), “Searching for the Optimal EMU Fiscal Rule: An Ex-post Analysis of the SGP Reform Proposals”, Brussels: Ministry of Economy and Finance Working Papers.
- Buchanan, J. (1991), Kamu Tercihi ve Anayasal İktisat, Çev. D.E.Ü. Maliye Bölümü Öğretim Üyeleri, İzmir, Aklıselim Ofset Tesisleri.
- Buiter, W. (1983), Deficits, Crowding out and Inflation: The Simple Analytics, Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Ela, M. (2018), “Ekonomik ve Parasal Birlik’te Büyük Ülkeler Neden Mali Kurallara Uymamaktadır?”, Adıyaman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 29, 727-752.
- Erdönmez, P.A. (2009), “Küresel Kriz ve Ülkeler Tarafından Alınan Önlemler Kronolojisi”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 68, 85-101.
- EU (1997), Resolution of the European Council on the Stability and Growth Pact C 236, 17 June, Amsterdam, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM:l25021>, 21.10.2019.
- EU (2004), Recommendation for a Council recommendation to Greece with a view to bringing an end to the situation of an excessive government deficit, 5 September, Brussels, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52004SC0816>, 23.10.2019).
- EU (2004), Recommendation for a Council Recommendation to Greece with a View to Bringing an end to the Situation of an Excessive Government Deficit, 5 July, Brussels, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52004SC0816>, 23.10.2019.
- EU (2005), “Amending Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 on the Strengthening of the Surveillance of Budgetary Positions and the Surveillance and Coordination of Economic Policies”, Council Regulation (EC) No 1055/2005 of 27 June 2005, Strazburg, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1412159031745&uri=CELEX:32005R1055>, 25.10.2019.
- EU (2005), “Amending Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 on Speeding up and Clarifying the Implementation of the Excessive Deficit Procedure”, Council Regulation (EC) No 1056/2005 of 27 June 2005, Strazburg, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1412159031745&uri=CELEX:32005R1056>, 25.10.2019.
- EU (2013), Regulation (EU) No 472/2013 of the “European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on the strengthening of economic and budgetary surveillance of Member States in the euroarea experiencing or threatened with serious difficulties with respect to their financial stability”, Strazburg, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32013R0472&from=EN>, 21.10.2019.
- EU (2013), Regulation (EU) No 473/2013 of the “European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on Common Provisions for Monitoring and Assessing Draft Budgetary Plans and Ensuring the Correction of Excessive Deficit of the Member States in the Euro Area”, Strazburg, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32013R0473&from=EN>, 21.10.2019.
- EU (2015), “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Central Bank, the Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank Making the Best Use of the Flexibılity within the Existing Rules of the Stability and Growth Pact”, Autonomous Act,13th January, Strasbourg, <https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52015DC0012&from=EN>, 21.10.2019.
- EU (2019), Council Decision abrogating Decision 2009/415/EC on the Existence of an Excessive Deficit in Greece, 19 September, Brussels, <http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-11240-2017-INIT/en/pdf>, 23.10.2019.
- EU (2019), History of the Stability and Growth Pact, <https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/eueconomic-governance-monitoring-prevention-correction/stability-and-growth-pact/history-stability-and-growth-pact_en>, 25.10.2019.
- Eurostat (2019) İstatistikler, <https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database>, 25.10.2019.
- Fisher, S. (1993), “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, Journel of Monetary Economics, 32, 485-512.
- Günay, A. & A. Özen (2002), “Avrupa Birliği’nde Mali Disiplinin Sağlanmasına Yönelik Maastricht Kriterlerinin Anayasal İktisat Perspektifinden Değerlendirilmesi”, DEÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 4 (2), 68-82.
- Güreşçi, G. & A. Oğuz (2012), “2008 Küresel Kriz Sürecinde Avrupa Birliği Birlik Olabildi Mi?”, Teacongress.com, <http://teacongress.org/papers2012/OGUZ-PEHLIVAN.pdf>, 16.10.2019.
- Haan, J.B. & H. Berger & D. Jansen (2004), “Why has the Stability and Growth Pact Failed?”, International Finance, 7(2), 235-260.
- Karluk, S.R. & Ö. Tonus (1998), “Avrupa Birliği Euro ve Geleceği”, Anadolu Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 14(1-2), 261-293.
- Kennedy, S. & J. Robbins & F. Delorme (2001), The Role of Fiscal Rules in Determining Fiscal Performans, Bank of Italia, <http://www.bancaditalia.it/studiricerche/convegni/atti/fisc_rules/session1/23726_kenn_robbins_&_delorme.pdf>, 18.05.2015.
- Kopits, G. & S. Symansky (1998), Fiscal Policy Rules, Washington D.C., IMF.
- Kopits, G. (2001), Fiscal Rules: Useful Policy Framework or Unnecessary Ornament, Washington D.C., IMF.
- Masson, P. & C. Pattillo (2003), “Monetary Union in West Africa: An Agency of Restraint for Fiscal Policies?”, Journal of African Economies, 11(3), 387-412.
- Mishkin, F.S. (1997), “Strategies for Controlling Inflation”, RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: P. Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Schaechter, A. & T. Kinda & N. Budina & A. Weber (2012), “Fiscal Rules in Responset other Crisis-Toward the ‘Next-Generation’ Rules, A New Dataset”, IMF Working Paper 187, <https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12187.pdf>, 25.10.2019.
- Schioppa, F.K.P. (2006), “The 2005 Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Too Little, Too Late?”, Bruges European Economic Research Papers, No. 6.
- Seda, E. (2013), Euro Bölgesi Borç Krizi ve Almanya, ASEM,16 Nisan, Ankara, <http://asem.org.tr/tr/publication/details/48/Euro-B%C3%B6lgesi-Bor%C3%A7-Krizi-ve-Almanya>, 25.10.2019.
- TC ABB (2011), AB Ekonomik Yönetişim Sisteminde Yeni Dönem, Ankara.
- TC ABB (2012), Yunanistan’ın Euro Bölgesinden Ayrılmasının Olası Ekonomik Etkileri, Ankara.
- TC Maliye Bakanlığı (2011), “Küresel Ekonomik Kriz Sonrası Mali Konsolidasyon ve Sermaye Hareketlerinin Kontrolüne Yönelik Politikalar”, SGB Araştırma Raporu, Ankara.
- The Guardian (2010), Greece debt crisis: timeline, 5 October, <https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/may/05/greece-debt-crisis-timeline>, 25.10.2019.
- Uçar, Ö. (2012), Yunanistan’ın Euro Bölgesi’nden Ayrılmasının Olası Ekonomik Etkileri, TCABB, <https://www.ab.gov.tr/files/EMPB/grexit_impact_on_turkey_print_version.pdf>, 23.10.2019.
- UK Reuters (2018), UK Inflation Rises for First Time in 2018, Seen Falling Soon, 18 August, <https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-economy-inflation/uk-inflation-rises-for-first-time-in-2018-seen-falling-soon-idUKKBN1L00SB>, 23.10.2019.
- Vural, İ.Y. (2007), “Mali Disiplinin ve Ekonomik İstikrarın Sağlanmasında Yeni Bir Araç: Mali Kurallar”, içinde: Kurumsal Maliye Politikası, Ankara: Seçkin Yayınevi, 97-118.