Bu çalışmanın iki temel amacı bulunmaktadır. Çalışmada ilk olarak; 2000-2017 yılları için 26 Avrupa ülkesinde kayıt dışılığın mali belirleyicilerinin doğrusal bir yaklaşımla ortaya konulması hedeflenmektedir. Buradan elde edilen bulgular çerçevesinde ikinci olarak; mali değişkenlerden kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkisinin düzenlemelerin etkinliğine göre ayrılmış iki ayrı rejimde panel eşik modeli ile incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, düzenleme etkinliği eşik değerin altında iken, kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi ortaya çıkmamaktadır. Buna karşın düzenleme etkinliğinin görece daha yüksek olduğu ikinci rejimde söz konusu etkinin anlamlı ve negatif olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.
Alm, J. (1999), “Tax Compliance and Administration”, Public Administration and Public Policy, 72, 741-768.
Bohn, S. & E. Owens (2012), “Immigration and the Informal Economy”, Industrial Relations A Journal of Economy and Society, 51(4), 845-873.
Borlea, S.N. & M. Achim & M. Miron (2017), “Corruption, Shadow Economy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Survey across the European Union Countries”, Studia Universitatis “Vasile Goldis” Arad. Economics Series, 27, 19-32.
Camacho, C. & F. Mariani & L. Pensieroso (2015), “Illegal Immigration and the Shadow Economy”, Discussion Paper 2015-14, <https://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2015014.pdf>, 10.04.2020.
Cullis, J. & P. Jones (2009), Public Finance and Public Choice, Oxford University Press.
Dobson, S. & C. Ramlogan-Dobson (2012), “Inequality, Corruption and the Informal Sector”, Economics Letters, 115(1), 104-107.
Dreher, A. & F. Schneider (2006), “Corruption and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Analysis”, CESifo Working Paper No.1653, <https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1653.pdf>, 10.04.2020.
Elgin, C. & B. Uras (2013), “Public Debt, Sovereign Default Risk and Shadow Economy”, Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 628-640.
Elgin, C. & F. Schneider (2016), “Shadow economies in OECD Countries: DGE vs. MIMIC Approaches”, Bogazici Journal, 30(1), 51-75.
Feldstein, M. (1984), “Debt and Taxes in the Theory of Public Finance”, NBER Working Paper /11433, <https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w1433/w1433.pdf>, 12.04.2020.
Frey, B.S. & H. Weck (1983), “Estimating the Shadow Economy: A ‘Naive’ Approach”, Oxford Economic Papers, 35(1), 23-44.
Friedman, E. & S. Johnson & D. Kaufmann & P.-L. Zoido-Lobaton (2000), Dodging the Grabbing Hand: the Determinants of Unofficial Activity in 69 Countries”, Journal of Public Economics, 76(3), 459-493.
Gokcekus, O. & F. Schneider (2020), “Are Shadow Economy and Corruption in US States Substitutive or Complementary? An Empirical Investigation”, Sosyoekonomi, 28(46), 11-23.
González-Fernández, M. & C. González-Velasco (2014), Do the Shadow Economy and Corruption Influence the Sovereign Debt? The Case of the Spanish Regions, <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260281336>, 06.4.2020.
Gujarati, D.N. & D. Porter (2012), Temel Ekonometri, Ü. Şenesen & G. Günlük-Şenesen (çev.), Literatür Yayıncılık.
Gupta, S. & H. Davoodi & R. Alonso-Terme (1998), “Does Corruption Affect Income Inequality and Poverty?”, IMF Working Paper, <https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp9876.pdf>, 15.04.2020.
Hansen, B.E. (1999), “Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference”, Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345-368.
Helberger, C. & H. Knepel (1988), “How Big is the Shadow Economy?: A Re-analysis of the Unobserved-variable Approach of B.S. Frey and H. Weck-Hannemann”, European Economic Review, 32, 965-976.
IMF (2020), <https://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/publicinvestment/>, 01.04.2020.
Johnson, S. & D. Kaufmann & P. Zoido-Lobaton (1998), “Regulatory Discretion and the Unofficial Economy”, The American Economic Review, 88(2), 387-392.
Kar, S. & S. Saha (2012), “Corruption, Shadow Economy and Income Inequality: Evidence from Asia”, IZA Discussion Papers No. 7106, <http://ftp.iza.org/dp7106.pdf>, 18.04.2020.
Kirchler, E. & C. Kogler & S. Muehlbacher (2014), “Cooperative Tax Compliance: From Deterrence to Deference”, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 23(2), 87-92.
Kirchler, E. & E. Hoelzl & I. Wahl (2008), “Enforced Versus Voluntary Tax Compliance: The ‘Slippery Slope’ Framework”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(2), 210-225.
Lippert, O. & M. Walker (1997), “The Underground Economy: Global Evidence of its Size and Impact”, The Fraser Institute, <https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/UndergroundEconomy.pdf>, 01.04.2020.
Medina, L. & F. Schneider (2017), “Shadow Economies around the World: New Results for 158 Countries over 1991-2015”, Working Paper No. 1710, <https://www.jku.at/en/department-of-economics/research/publications/working-papers/working-papers-2017/>, 05.04.2020.
Ondo, A. (2017), “Corruption and Economic Growth: The Case of EMCCA”, Theoretical Economics Letters, 1292-1305.
Savaşan, F. & F. Yardımcıoğlu & İ. Demir (2016), “Türkiye’de Kayıt dışı Ekonomi: Zaman Serisi ve Panel Veri MIMIC Tahminleri”, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(2), 161-200.
Schneider, F. & A. Buehn & C. Montenegro (2010), “Shadow Economies All over the World New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007”, Policy Research Working Paper 5356.
Schneider, F. & A. Buehn (2012), “Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?”, IZA DP No. 6891.
Schneider, F. & A. Buehn (2018), “Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open Questions”, Open Economics, 1-29.
Schneider, F. & C. Williams (2013), “The Shadow Economy”, Institute of Economic Affairs, 1-96.
Schneider, F. & D. Enste (2000), “Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences”, Journal of Economic Literature, 38(1), 77-114.
Schneider, F. & R. Klinglmair (2004), “Shadow Economies around the World: What Do We Know?”, Discussion Paper No. 1043.
Schneider, F. (2006), “Shadow Economies and Corruption All Over the World: What Do We Really Know?”, Discussion Paper No. 2315, <http://ftp.iza.org/dp2315.pdf>, 03.04.2020.
Schneider, F. (2016), “Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economies of Highly developed Countries: Selected New Results”, CESifo DICE Report, 14(4), 44-53.
Schneider, F. (2017), “Implausible Large Differences in the Sizes of Underground Economies in Highly Developed European Countries? A Comparison of Different Estimation Methods”, Working Paper No. 1709, Johannes Kepler University of Linz.
The Heritage Foundation (2020), <https://www.heritage.org/index/explore>, 01.04.2020.
The World Bank (2020), <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.GOVT.ZS>, 01.04.2020.
The World Bank (2020), <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.GSYH.mktp.kd.zg>, 01.04.2020.
Torgler, B. & F. Schneider (2007), “Shadow Economy, Tax Morale,Governance And Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis”, CESifo Working Paper No. 1923.
Torgler, B. (2005), “Tax Morale and Direct Democracy”, European Journal of Political Economy, 21(2), 525-531.
Tosun, U. (2001), “Yolsuzluk Olgusuna Yönelik Yapılan Ampirik Çalışmalar Üzerine Notlar”, H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(2), 97-122.
Williams, C.C. & F. Schneider (2013), “The Shadow Economy”, The Institute of Economic Affairs, <http://iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/IEA%20Shadow%20Economy%20web%20rev%207.6.13.pdf>, 01.04.2020.
Williams, C.C. & I. Horodnic (2015), “Self-employment, the Informal Economy and the Marginalisation Thesis:Some Evidence from the European Union”, International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research, 21(2), 224-242.
Yereli, A.B. & E. Seçilmiş & A. Başaran (2007), “Shadow Economy and Public Debt Sustainability in Turkey”, Economic Annals, 52(173), 85-104.
The Examination of Fiscal Origins of Black Economy by Panel Threshold Model: The Effect of Government Size within the Context of Regulation Efficiency
Year 2021,
Volume: 29 Issue: 47, 141 - 158, 25.01.2021
The purpose of this study is twofold. Firstly, we aim to examine the fiscal determinants of the black economy for 26 economies over 2000-2017 by utilizing a linear approach. Secondly, in parallel to the linear model findings, we seek to investigate the impact of government size on the black economy under two regimes with different regulation efficiencies using a panel threshold model. Our results indicate that government size has no significant effect on the black economy when the regulation efficiency is below the threshold level. On the other hand, when the government regulations are relatively more efficient, we find evidence supporting the significant and negative impact of government size on the black economy.
Alm, J. (1999), “Tax Compliance and Administration”, Public Administration and Public Policy, 72, 741-768.
Bohn, S. & E. Owens (2012), “Immigration and the Informal Economy”, Industrial Relations A Journal of Economy and Society, 51(4), 845-873.
Borlea, S.N. & M. Achim & M. Miron (2017), “Corruption, Shadow Economy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Survey across the European Union Countries”, Studia Universitatis “Vasile Goldis” Arad. Economics Series, 27, 19-32.
Camacho, C. & F. Mariani & L. Pensieroso (2015), “Illegal Immigration and the Shadow Economy”, Discussion Paper 2015-14, <https://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2015014.pdf>, 10.04.2020.
Cullis, J. & P. Jones (2009), Public Finance and Public Choice, Oxford University Press.
Dobson, S. & C. Ramlogan-Dobson (2012), “Inequality, Corruption and the Informal Sector”, Economics Letters, 115(1), 104-107.
Dreher, A. & F. Schneider (2006), “Corruption and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Analysis”, CESifo Working Paper No.1653, <https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1653.pdf>, 10.04.2020.
Elgin, C. & B. Uras (2013), “Public Debt, Sovereign Default Risk and Shadow Economy”, Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 628-640.
Elgin, C. & F. Schneider (2016), “Shadow economies in OECD Countries: DGE vs. MIMIC Approaches”, Bogazici Journal, 30(1), 51-75.
Feldstein, M. (1984), “Debt and Taxes in the Theory of Public Finance”, NBER Working Paper /11433, <https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w1433/w1433.pdf>, 12.04.2020.
Frey, B.S. & H. Weck (1983), “Estimating the Shadow Economy: A ‘Naive’ Approach”, Oxford Economic Papers, 35(1), 23-44.
Friedman, E. & S. Johnson & D. Kaufmann & P.-L. Zoido-Lobaton (2000), Dodging the Grabbing Hand: the Determinants of Unofficial Activity in 69 Countries”, Journal of Public Economics, 76(3), 459-493.
Gokcekus, O. & F. Schneider (2020), “Are Shadow Economy and Corruption in US States Substitutive or Complementary? An Empirical Investigation”, Sosyoekonomi, 28(46), 11-23.
González-Fernández, M. & C. González-Velasco (2014), Do the Shadow Economy and Corruption Influence the Sovereign Debt? The Case of the Spanish Regions, <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260281336>, 06.4.2020.
Gujarati, D.N. & D. Porter (2012), Temel Ekonometri, Ü. Şenesen & G. Günlük-Şenesen (çev.), Literatür Yayıncılık.
Gupta, S. & H. Davoodi & R. Alonso-Terme (1998), “Does Corruption Affect Income Inequality and Poverty?”, IMF Working Paper, <https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp9876.pdf>, 15.04.2020.
Hansen, B.E. (1999), “Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference”, Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345-368.
Helberger, C. & H. Knepel (1988), “How Big is the Shadow Economy?: A Re-analysis of the Unobserved-variable Approach of B.S. Frey and H. Weck-Hannemann”, European Economic Review, 32, 965-976.
IMF (2020), <https://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/publicinvestment/>, 01.04.2020.
Johnson, S. & D. Kaufmann & P. Zoido-Lobaton (1998), “Regulatory Discretion and the Unofficial Economy”, The American Economic Review, 88(2), 387-392.
Kar, S. & S. Saha (2012), “Corruption, Shadow Economy and Income Inequality: Evidence from Asia”, IZA Discussion Papers No. 7106, <http://ftp.iza.org/dp7106.pdf>, 18.04.2020.
Kirchler, E. & C. Kogler & S. Muehlbacher (2014), “Cooperative Tax Compliance: From Deterrence to Deference”, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 23(2), 87-92.
Kirchler, E. & E. Hoelzl & I. Wahl (2008), “Enforced Versus Voluntary Tax Compliance: The ‘Slippery Slope’ Framework”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(2), 210-225.
Lippert, O. & M. Walker (1997), “The Underground Economy: Global Evidence of its Size and Impact”, The Fraser Institute, <https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/UndergroundEconomy.pdf>, 01.04.2020.
Medina, L. & F. Schneider (2017), “Shadow Economies around the World: New Results for 158 Countries over 1991-2015”, Working Paper No. 1710, <https://www.jku.at/en/department-of-economics/research/publications/working-papers/working-papers-2017/>, 05.04.2020.
Ondo, A. (2017), “Corruption and Economic Growth: The Case of EMCCA”, Theoretical Economics Letters, 1292-1305.
Savaşan, F. & F. Yardımcıoğlu & İ. Demir (2016), “Türkiye’de Kayıt dışı Ekonomi: Zaman Serisi ve Panel Veri MIMIC Tahminleri”, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(2), 161-200.
Schneider, F. & A. Buehn & C. Montenegro (2010), “Shadow Economies All over the World New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007”, Policy Research Working Paper 5356.
Schneider, F. & A. Buehn (2012), “Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?”, IZA DP No. 6891.
Schneider, F. & A. Buehn (2018), “Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open Questions”, Open Economics, 1-29.
Schneider, F. & C. Williams (2013), “The Shadow Economy”, Institute of Economic Affairs, 1-96.
Schneider, F. & D. Enste (2000), “Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences”, Journal of Economic Literature, 38(1), 77-114.
Schneider, F. & R. Klinglmair (2004), “Shadow Economies around the World: What Do We Know?”, Discussion Paper No. 1043.
Schneider, F. (2006), “Shadow Economies and Corruption All Over the World: What Do We Really Know?”, Discussion Paper No. 2315, <http://ftp.iza.org/dp2315.pdf>, 03.04.2020.
Schneider, F. (2016), “Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economies of Highly developed Countries: Selected New Results”, CESifo DICE Report, 14(4), 44-53.
Schneider, F. (2017), “Implausible Large Differences in the Sizes of Underground Economies in Highly Developed European Countries? A Comparison of Different Estimation Methods”, Working Paper No. 1709, Johannes Kepler University of Linz.
The Heritage Foundation (2020), <https://www.heritage.org/index/explore>, 01.04.2020.
The World Bank (2020), <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.GOVT.ZS>, 01.04.2020.
The World Bank (2020), <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.GSYH.mktp.kd.zg>, 01.04.2020.
Torgler, B. & F. Schneider (2007), “Shadow Economy, Tax Morale,Governance And Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis”, CESifo Working Paper No. 1923.
Torgler, B. (2005), “Tax Morale and Direct Democracy”, European Journal of Political Economy, 21(2), 525-531.
Tosun, U. (2001), “Yolsuzluk Olgusuna Yönelik Yapılan Ampirik Çalışmalar Üzerine Notlar”, H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19(2), 97-122.
Williams, C.C. & F. Schneider (2013), “The Shadow Economy”, The Institute of Economic Affairs, <http://iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/IEA%20Shadow%20Economy%20web%20rev%207.6.13.pdf>, 01.04.2020.
Williams, C.C. & I. Horodnic (2015), “Self-employment, the Informal Economy and the Marginalisation Thesis:Some Evidence from the European Union”, International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research, 21(2), 224-242.
Yereli, A.B. & E. Seçilmiş & A. Başaran (2007), “Shadow Economy and Public Debt Sustainability in Turkey”, Economic Annals, 52(173), 85-104.
Tekdemir, N., & Varol İyidoğan, P. (2021). Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi. Sosyoekonomi, 29(47), 141-158. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.07
AMA
Tekdemir N, Varol İyidoğan P. Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi. Sosyoekonomi. January 2021;29(47):141-158. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.07
Chicago
Tekdemir, Nazmiye, and Pelin Varol İyidoğan. “Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli Ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi”. Sosyoekonomi 29, no. 47 (January 2021): 141-58. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.07.
EndNote
Tekdemir N, Varol İyidoğan P (January 1, 2021) Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi. Sosyoekonomi 29 47 141–158.
IEEE
N. Tekdemir and P. Varol İyidoğan, “Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 29, no. 47, pp. 141–158, 2021, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.07.
ISNAD
Tekdemir, Nazmiye - Varol İyidoğan, Pelin. “Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli Ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi”. Sosyoekonomi 29/47 (January 2021), 141-158. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.07.
JAMA
Tekdemir N, Varol İyidoğan P. Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi. Sosyoekonomi. 2021;29:141–158.
MLA
Tekdemir, Nazmiye and Pelin Varol İyidoğan. “Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli Ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 29, no. 47, 2021, pp. 141-58, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.01.07.
Vancouver
Tekdemir N, Varol İyidoğan P. Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Mali Kökenlerinin Panel Eşik Modeli ile İncelenmesi: Düzenlemelerin Etkinliği Bağlamında Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Etkisi. Sosyoekonomi. 2021;29(47):141-58.