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Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018)

Year 2021, Volume 29, Issue 50, 35 - 50, 31.10.2021
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02

Abstract

The study aims to analyse the long-term relationship between GDP and employment during 2000Q1-2018Q4. The relation is important for Turkey who has problems with employment creation capacity of growth. However, the high growth performance of Turkey during the 2000s employment ratios have well remained below OECD averages. Employment elasticity of growth is 0.15 for the 2004Q1-2018Q4 period with the Engle-Granger test. The elasticity for the entire period is much weaker, like 0.04. Johansen tests confirm the long-run cointegration between two variables, and an error-correction model (ECM) is built for detecting causality. Granger tests also reveal causality from GDP to employment.

References

  • Agenor, P.R. et al. (2006), “Disinflation, Fiscal Sustainability, and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3804, January.
  • Akçoraoğlu, A. (2010), “Employment, Economic Growth and Labor Market Performance: The Case of Turkey”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 21(77), 101-114.
  • Basnett, Y. & R. Sen (2013), What Do Empirical Studies Say About Economic Growth and Job Creation in Developing Countries?, Overseas Development Institute, September, 1-41.
  • Boltho, A. & A. Glyn (1995), “Can Macroeconomic Policies Raise Employment?”, International Labor Review, 134(4-5), 451-470.
  • Chang, H.J. (2011), 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism, Penguin Books: U.K. Courtney, H. (1991), “The Beveridge Curve and Okun’s Law: a Re-Examination of Fundamental Relationships in the US”, Dissertation, Massachusett Institute of Technology.
  • Ercan, H. & A. Tansel (2006), “How to Approach the Challenge of Reconciling Labor Flexibility wity Job Security and Social Cohesion in Turkey”, Paper of the Turkish Experts’ Group’s Preparation for European Council’s FORUM 2005 (Strasbourg).
  • Eurostat (2019), Database, ˂https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database>. Ghosh, J. (2003), “Exporting Jobs or Watching Them Disappear? Relocation, Employment and Accumulation in the World Economy”, in: J. Ghosh & C.P. Chandrasekar (eds.), Work and Well Being in the Age of Finance, Muttukadu Papers I: Tulika Press, 1-26.
  • Gordon, R.J. (2003), Macroeconomics, Boston: Addison Wesley.
  • Heintz, J. & R. Pollin (2003), “Informalization, Economic Growth and the Challenge of Creating Viable Labor Standards in Developing Countries”, PERI Working Paper, No. 60, Amherst, MA: Political Economy Research Institute, 1-22.
  • Heintz, J. (2006), “Globalization, Economic Policy and Employment: Poverty and Gender Implications”, Employment Strategy Papers, Employment Policy Unit, Employment Strategy Department, Geneva: ILO, 1-83.
  • Islam, R. (2004), The Nexus of Growth, Employment And Poverty Reduction: An Empirical Analysis, Recovery and Reconstruction Department, Geneva: International Labor Office, 1-33.
  • Kapsos, S. (2005), “The Employment Intensity of Growth. Trends and Macroeconomic Determinants”, Employment Strategy Papers, No. 2005/12, Employment Strategy Department, Geneva: ILO, 1-55.
  • Khan, A.R. (2007), Asian Experience on Growth, Employment and Powerty: An Overview with Special Reference to the Findings of Some Recent Case Studies, UNDP Regional Center in Colombo and International Labor Office, Geneva, 1-45.
  • Khemraj, T. et al. (2006), “Okun’s Law and Jobless Growth”, MPRA Paper, New School for Social Research, No. 54881, March, 2006, 1-10.
  • Murat, S. & B.Yılmaz-Eser (2013), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve İstihdam İlişkisi: İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme Olgusunun Geçerliliği”, HAK-İŞ Uluslararası Emek ve Toplum Dergisi, 2(3), 92-123.
  • Okun, A.M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”, Reprinted from Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, Cowles Foundation Paper, 190.
  • Onaran, Ö. & N. Aydıner-Avşar (2006), “The Controversy Over Employment Policy: Low Labor Costs and Openness, or Demand Policy? A Sectoral Analysis for Turkey”, Department of Economics Working Paper Series, 97. Inst. für Volkswirtschaftstheorie und -Politik, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, 1-24.
  • Onaran, Ö. (2002), “Measuring Wage Flexibility: The Case of Turkey Before and After Structural Adjustment”, Applied Economics, 34, April, 767-781.
  • Osmani, S.R. (2004), “The Employment Nexus Between Growth and Powerty: An Asian Perspective”, mimeo, Report prepared for the Swedish International Development, 1-56.
  • Padalino, S. & M. Vivarelli (1997), “The Employment Intensity of Economic Growth in the G-7 Countries”, International Labor Review, 136, 191-213.
  • Palley, T. (1993), “Okun’s Law and the Asymmetric and Changing Cyclical Behavior of the USA Economy”, International Review of Applied Economics, 7(2), 144-162.
  • Patnaik, P. (2003), “Money, Finance and Contradictions of Capitalism”, in: J. Ghosh & C.P. Chandrasekar (eds.), Work and Well Being in the Age of Finance, Muttukadu Papers I: Tulika Press.
  • Prachowny, M.F.J. (1993), “Okun’s Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 75(2), 331-336.
  • Seyfried, W, (2005), “Examining the Relationship Between Employment and Economic Growth in the Ten Largest States”, Southwestern Economic Review, Spring, 13-24.
  • Seyfried, W. & R. College (2008), “A Cross Country Analysis of the Employment Intensity of Economic Growth”, Research Gate Article, January, 51-61.
  • Seyfried, W. (2014), “Examining the Employment Intensity of Economic Growth of the PIIGS”, International Business and Economics Research Journal, 13(3), 593-598.
  • Singh, A. (2003), “Trade, Technology, Institutions and Social Norms: A Perspective on the Determinants of Income Inequality”, in: A. Cornea (ed.), Rising Income Inequality and Poverty Reduction: Are They Compatible?, UNCTAD Papers, Geneva.
  • Slimane, S.B. (2015), “The Relationship Between Growth and Employment Intensity: Evidence for Developing Countries”, Asian Economic and Financial Review, 5(4), 680-692.
  • Strange, S. (2015), Casino Capitalism, Manchester University Press.
  • Telli, C. et al. (2006), “Modelling General Equilibrium for Socially Responsible Macroeconomics. Seeking for the Alternatives to Fight Jobless Growth in Turkey”, METU Studies in Development, 33(2), 255-293.
  • Tezcek, Ö. (2007), “An Alternative Approach to Overcome Jobless Growth in Turkey: A New Strategy of Industrialization”, Published in IDEAs (International Development Economics Associates) Webpage, Paper Presented in the IDEAs Conference on Sustainable Employment Generation in Developing Countries: Current Constraints and Alternative Strategies, University of Nairobi, Kenya, 25-27th January 2007.
  • TÜİK Turkish Statistical Institute (2019), Database, <http://www.tuik.gov.tr>.
  • Tunalı, İ. (2003), “Background Study on the Labor Market and Employment in Turkey”, Report Prepared for the European Training Foundation, June 2003.
  • TÜSİAD (2008), “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Büyüme Dinamikleri: 1987-2007 Döneminde Büyümenin Kaynakları, Temel Sorunları ve Potansiyel Büyüme Oranı”, Küresel Ekonomiye Entegrasyon Sürecinde Büyüme Projesi Üçüncü Raporu, Haziran.
  • UNCTAD (1999), Trade and Development Report, Geneva.
  • Uras, Ö. (2016), “Türkiye Ekonomisindeki İstihdamsız Büyümenin Ekonometrik Analizi”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 24, 94-108.
  • Walterskirchen, E. (1999), “The Relationship Between Growth, Employment and Unemployment in the EU”, European Economist for an Alternative Economic Policy Workshop, Barcelona, Spain.
  • World Bank (2006), “Turkey: Labor Market Study”, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region, World Bank Report No. 33254-TR.

Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye’de İstihdam Yaratmıyor Mu? (2000-2018)

Year 2021, Volume 29, Issue 50, 35 - 50, 31.10.2021
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı 2000Q1-2018Q4 döneminde GYİH ile istihdam arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin araştırılmasıdır. Bu ilişki büyümenin istihdam yaratma kapasitesinde sorunlar bulunan Türkiye için önem taşımaktadır. Türkiye’de 2000’li yıllardaki yüksek büyüme performansına rağmen istihdam oranları OECD ortalamalarının oldukça altında seyretmiştir. 2004Q1-2018Q4 döneminde Engle-Granger testi ile büyümenin istihdam esnekliği 0.15’tir. Dönemin tamamında elastikiyet 0.04 ile çok daha düşüktür. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli koentegrasyon ilişkisi Johansen testi ile doğrulanmış ve bir ECM modeli kurularak nedensellik araştırılmıştır. Granger testi de gelir ve istihdam arasında gelirden istihdama doğru nedensellik bulunduğunu tespit etmiştir.

References

  • Agenor, P.R. et al. (2006), “Disinflation, Fiscal Sustainability, and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3804, January.
  • Akçoraoğlu, A. (2010), “Employment, Economic Growth and Labor Market Performance: The Case of Turkey”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 21(77), 101-114.
  • Basnett, Y. & R. Sen (2013), What Do Empirical Studies Say About Economic Growth and Job Creation in Developing Countries?, Overseas Development Institute, September, 1-41.
  • Boltho, A. & A. Glyn (1995), “Can Macroeconomic Policies Raise Employment?”, International Labor Review, 134(4-5), 451-470.
  • Chang, H.J. (2011), 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism, Penguin Books: U.K. Courtney, H. (1991), “The Beveridge Curve and Okun’s Law: a Re-Examination of Fundamental Relationships in the US”, Dissertation, Massachusett Institute of Technology.
  • Ercan, H. & A. Tansel (2006), “How to Approach the Challenge of Reconciling Labor Flexibility wity Job Security and Social Cohesion in Turkey”, Paper of the Turkish Experts’ Group’s Preparation for European Council’s FORUM 2005 (Strasbourg).
  • Eurostat (2019), Database, ˂https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database>. Ghosh, J. (2003), “Exporting Jobs or Watching Them Disappear? Relocation, Employment and Accumulation in the World Economy”, in: J. Ghosh & C.P. Chandrasekar (eds.), Work and Well Being in the Age of Finance, Muttukadu Papers I: Tulika Press, 1-26.
  • Gordon, R.J. (2003), Macroeconomics, Boston: Addison Wesley.
  • Heintz, J. & R. Pollin (2003), “Informalization, Economic Growth and the Challenge of Creating Viable Labor Standards in Developing Countries”, PERI Working Paper, No. 60, Amherst, MA: Political Economy Research Institute, 1-22.
  • Heintz, J. (2006), “Globalization, Economic Policy and Employment: Poverty and Gender Implications”, Employment Strategy Papers, Employment Policy Unit, Employment Strategy Department, Geneva: ILO, 1-83.
  • Islam, R. (2004), The Nexus of Growth, Employment And Poverty Reduction: An Empirical Analysis, Recovery and Reconstruction Department, Geneva: International Labor Office, 1-33.
  • Kapsos, S. (2005), “The Employment Intensity of Growth. Trends and Macroeconomic Determinants”, Employment Strategy Papers, No. 2005/12, Employment Strategy Department, Geneva: ILO, 1-55.
  • Khan, A.R. (2007), Asian Experience on Growth, Employment and Powerty: An Overview with Special Reference to the Findings of Some Recent Case Studies, UNDP Regional Center in Colombo and International Labor Office, Geneva, 1-45.
  • Khemraj, T. et al. (2006), “Okun’s Law and Jobless Growth”, MPRA Paper, New School for Social Research, No. 54881, March, 2006, 1-10.
  • Murat, S. & B.Yılmaz-Eser (2013), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve İstihdam İlişkisi: İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme Olgusunun Geçerliliği”, HAK-İŞ Uluslararası Emek ve Toplum Dergisi, 2(3), 92-123.
  • Okun, A.M. (1962), “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance”, Reprinted from Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, Cowles Foundation Paper, 190.
  • Onaran, Ö. & N. Aydıner-Avşar (2006), “The Controversy Over Employment Policy: Low Labor Costs and Openness, or Demand Policy? A Sectoral Analysis for Turkey”, Department of Economics Working Paper Series, 97. Inst. für Volkswirtschaftstheorie und -Politik, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, 1-24.
  • Onaran, Ö. (2002), “Measuring Wage Flexibility: The Case of Turkey Before and After Structural Adjustment”, Applied Economics, 34, April, 767-781.
  • Osmani, S.R. (2004), “The Employment Nexus Between Growth and Powerty: An Asian Perspective”, mimeo, Report prepared for the Swedish International Development, 1-56.
  • Padalino, S. & M. Vivarelli (1997), “The Employment Intensity of Economic Growth in the G-7 Countries”, International Labor Review, 136, 191-213.
  • Palley, T. (1993), “Okun’s Law and the Asymmetric and Changing Cyclical Behavior of the USA Economy”, International Review of Applied Economics, 7(2), 144-162.
  • Patnaik, P. (2003), “Money, Finance and Contradictions of Capitalism”, in: J. Ghosh & C.P. Chandrasekar (eds.), Work and Well Being in the Age of Finance, Muttukadu Papers I: Tulika Press.
  • Prachowny, M.F.J. (1993), “Okun’s Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 75(2), 331-336.
  • Seyfried, W, (2005), “Examining the Relationship Between Employment and Economic Growth in the Ten Largest States”, Southwestern Economic Review, Spring, 13-24.
  • Seyfried, W. & R. College (2008), “A Cross Country Analysis of the Employment Intensity of Economic Growth”, Research Gate Article, January, 51-61.
  • Seyfried, W. (2014), “Examining the Employment Intensity of Economic Growth of the PIIGS”, International Business and Economics Research Journal, 13(3), 593-598.
  • Singh, A. (2003), “Trade, Technology, Institutions and Social Norms: A Perspective on the Determinants of Income Inequality”, in: A. Cornea (ed.), Rising Income Inequality and Poverty Reduction: Are They Compatible?, UNCTAD Papers, Geneva.
  • Slimane, S.B. (2015), “The Relationship Between Growth and Employment Intensity: Evidence for Developing Countries”, Asian Economic and Financial Review, 5(4), 680-692.
  • Strange, S. (2015), Casino Capitalism, Manchester University Press.
  • Telli, C. et al. (2006), “Modelling General Equilibrium for Socially Responsible Macroeconomics. Seeking for the Alternatives to Fight Jobless Growth in Turkey”, METU Studies in Development, 33(2), 255-293.
  • Tezcek, Ö. (2007), “An Alternative Approach to Overcome Jobless Growth in Turkey: A New Strategy of Industrialization”, Published in IDEAs (International Development Economics Associates) Webpage, Paper Presented in the IDEAs Conference on Sustainable Employment Generation in Developing Countries: Current Constraints and Alternative Strategies, University of Nairobi, Kenya, 25-27th January 2007.
  • TÜİK Turkish Statistical Institute (2019), Database, <http://www.tuik.gov.tr>.
  • Tunalı, İ. (2003), “Background Study on the Labor Market and Employment in Turkey”, Report Prepared for the European Training Foundation, June 2003.
  • TÜSİAD (2008), “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Büyüme Dinamikleri: 1987-2007 Döneminde Büyümenin Kaynakları, Temel Sorunları ve Potansiyel Büyüme Oranı”, Küresel Ekonomiye Entegrasyon Sürecinde Büyüme Projesi Üçüncü Raporu, Haziran.
  • UNCTAD (1999), Trade and Development Report, Geneva.
  • Uras, Ö. (2016), “Türkiye Ekonomisindeki İstihdamsız Büyümenin Ekonometrik Analizi”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 24, 94-108.
  • Walterskirchen, E. (1999), “The Relationship Between Growth, Employment and Unemployment in the EU”, European Economist for an Alternative Economic Policy Workshop, Barcelona, Spain.
  • World Bank (2006), “Turkey: Labor Market Study”, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region, World Bank Report No. 33254-TR.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Social
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Leyla BAŞTAV (Primary Author)
BANKACILIK DÜZENLEME VE DENETLEME KURULU
0000-0003-1533-2289
Türkiye

Supporting Institution Gazi Üniversitesi
Thanks Gazi Üniversitesi iktisat ve ekonometri öğretim üyeleri
Publication Date October 31, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021, Volume 29, Issue 50

Cite

Bibtex @research article { sosyoekonomi786746, journal = {Sosyoekonomi}, issn = {1305-5577}, address = {}, publisher = {Sosyoekonomi Society}, year = {2021}, volume = {29}, pages = {35 - 50}, doi = {10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02}, title = {Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018)}, key = {cite}, author = {Baştav, Leyla} }
APA Baştav, L. (2021). Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018) . Sosyoekonomi , 29 (50) , 35-50 . DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02
MLA Baştav, L. "Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018)" . Sosyoekonomi 29 (2021 ): 35-50 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/65592/786746>
Chicago Baştav, L. "Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018)". Sosyoekonomi 29 (2021 ): 35-50
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018) AU - Leyla Baştav Y1 - 2021 PY - 2021 N1 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02 DO - 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02 T2 - Sosyoekonomi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 35 EP - 50 VL - 29 IS - 50 SN - 1305-5577- M3 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02 UR - https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02 Y2 - 2021 ER -
EndNote %0 Sosyoekonomi Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018) %A Leyla Baştav %T Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018) %D 2021 %J Sosyoekonomi %P 1305-5577- %V 29 %N 50 %R doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02 %U 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02
ISNAD Baştav, Leyla . "Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018)". Sosyoekonomi 29 / 50 (October 2021): 35-50 . https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02
AMA Baştav L. Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018). Sosyoekonomi. 2021; 29(50): 35-50.
Vancouver Baştav L. Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018). Sosyoekonomi. 2021; 29(50): 35-50.
IEEE L. Baştav , "Turkish Economic Growth: (Non) Labour Creating? (2000-2018)", Sosyoekonomi, vol. 29, no. 50, pp. 35-50, Oct. 2021, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.02