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Is Policy Interest Effectively Used in Turkey for Against Currency Substitution: Evidence from Fourier Area

Year 2021, Volume: 29 Issue: 50, 503 - 520, 31.10.2021
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23

Abstract

The phenomenon of currency substitution started in the Turkish economy during the transition to a free-market economy in the 1980s with the changing foreign exchange regime. In this context, the study, based on the January 2011-November 2020 period, Turkey's economy to prevent currency substitution, whether the weighted average funding rate is used effectively or not, is examined by traditional and Fourier causality tests. As a result of empirical analysis, it has been determined that currency substitution hysteria is experienced due to economic actors' deterioration in nominal exchange rate expectations. To rectify this situation, no interest rate hysteresis was experienced during the analysis period due to the inability to use the policy rate effectively. As the study's main question, both time and Fourier domain causality from average funding cost to money substitution could not be found.

References

  • Adom, A.D. et al. (2009), “Currency Substitution in Selected African Countries”, Journal of Economic Studies, 36(November), 616-640.
  • Aigheyisi, O.S. (2015), “Currency Substitution, Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Simultaneous Equations Analysis”, The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, 4(1), 33-44.
  • Akçay, O.C. et al. (1997), “Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Instability: The Turkish Case”, European Economic Review, 41(3-5), 827-835.
  • Aziakpono, M. & S. Babatope-Obasa (2004), “Financial Liberalization, Currency Substitution and Savings in Nigeria: Evidence From Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling”, South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 7(2), 316-340.
  • Bacha, E.L. et al. (2009), “A Panel-Data Analysis of Interest Rates and Dollarization in Brazil”, Revista Brasileira de Economia, 63(4), 341-360.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Domac (2003), “On The Link Between Dollarisation and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey”, Comparative Economic Studies, 45(3), 306-328.
  • Balaylar, N.A. & A.A. Duygulu (2004), “Türkiye’de Para İkamesi Olgusu ve Para Talebinin İstikrarı”, DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 19(2), 33-55.
  • Becker, R. et al. (2006), “A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Bernholz, P. (1989), “Currency Competition, Inflation, Gresham's Law and Exchange Rate”, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE)/Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft, 45(3), 465-488.
  • Calvo, G.A. & C. Vegh (1992), “Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: an Introduction”, IMF Working Paper No. 92/40.
  • Canto, V.A. & G. Nickelsburg (1987), Currency Substitution, Springer, Dordrecht.
  • Civcir, I. (2005), “Dollarization and Its l-Long-run Determinants in Turkey”, Research in Middle East Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, (6), 201-232.
  • Clements, B. & G. Schwartz (1993), “Currency Substitution: The Recent Experience of Bolivia”, World Development, Elsevier, 21(11), 1883-1893.
  • Cuddington, J. (1989), “Commodity Export Booms in Developing Countries”, The World Bank Research Observer, 4(2), 143-165.
  • Darıcı, B. (2004), “Para İkamesi Olgusu ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri”, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Balıkesir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Balıkesir, Türkiye.
  • Doguwa, S.I. (2014), “Currency Substitution: Evidence from Nigeria”, CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 5(2), 1-23.
  • Domac, I. & M. Bahmani-Oskooee (2002), “Between Dollarization and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey”, Discussion Paper 0207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Drazen, A. & E. Helpman (1990), “Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies”, The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 147-164.
  • Edwards, S. & M.S. Khan (1985), “Interest Rate Determination in Developing Countries: A Conceptual Framework”, NBER Working Papers 1531, National Bureau of Economic Research, 377-403.
  • Elifoğlu, H. & Ö. Taşseven (2015), “Macroeconomic Determinants of Currency Substitution in Turkey”, Global Business Research Symposium May 27-29, İstanbul: Beykent.
  • Enders, W. & P. Jones (2016), “Grain Prices, Oil Prices, and Multiple Smooth Breaks in a VAR”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419.
  • Feige, E.L. (2003), “Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De Facto Dollarisation and Euroisation in Transition Countries”, Comparative Economic Studies, 45(3), 358-383.
  • Fendoğlu, E. & E.C. Gökçe (2019), “Türkiye’nin Turizm Geliri Serisinin Durağanlığı: Fourier KPSS Durağanlık Testi”, Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (31), 17-28.
  • Fielding, D. & A. Shortland (2012), “The Dynamics of Terror During the Peruvian Civil War”, Journal of Peace Research, 49(6), 847-862.
  • Freitas, M.L.D. (2003), “Revisiting Dollarisation Hysteresis: Evidence from Bolivia, Turkey and Indonésia”, NIPE Working Papers 12/2003, NIPE, Universidade do Minho.
  • Ghaderi, S. (2017), “The Hysteresis Effect of Currency Substitution in Iran: Divisia Index Approach”, Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 22(72), 187-212.
  • Ghobaee-Arani, Z. et al. (2018), “Welfare Effects of Currency Substitution in Iran (1959-2013)”, Monetary & Financial Economics, 25(15), 251-274.
  • Giovanni, A. & B. Turtelboom (1992), “Currency Substitution”, NBER Working Paper, No: 4232.
  • Girton, L. & D. Roper (1981), “Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 13(1), 12-30.
  • Granger, C.W. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
  • Guidotti, P.E. & C.A. Rodriguez (1992), “Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham's law in reverse?”, International Monetary Fund, IMF Economic Review, 39(3), 518-544.
  • Havrylyshyn, O. & C.H. Beddies (2003), “Dollarisation in the Former Soviet Union: From Hysteria to Hysteresis”, Comparative Economic Studies, 45(3), 329-357.
  • İmrohoroğlu, S. (1994), “GMM Estimates of Currency Substitution Between the Canadian Dollar and the US Dollar”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26(4), 792-807.
  • Kumamoto, H. (2014), “Recent Experiences with Currency Substitution”, International Journal of Financial Research, 5(4), 1-12.
  • Kwiatkowski, D. et al. (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
  • Manjani, O. (2015), “Estimating the Determinants of Financial Euroization in Albania”, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper, No. 07/2015.
  • McKinnon, R.I. (1982), “Currency Substitution and Instability in the World Dollar Standard”, The American Economic Review, 72(3), 320-333.
  • Nazlioglu, S. et al. (2016), “Oil Prices and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Gradual-Shift Causality and Volatility Transmission Analysis”, Energy Economics, 60, 168-175.
  • Olayungbo, D.O. & K.T. Ajuwon (2015), “Dollarization, Inflation and Interest Rate in Nigeria”, Journal of applied Statistics, 6(1), 241-261.
  • Oomes, N. (2003), “Network Externalities and Dollarization Hysteresis: The Case of Russia”, IMF Working Paper, No. 03/96.
  • Ortiz, G. (1983), “Currency Substitution in Mexico: The Dollarization Problem”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 15(2), 174-185.
  • Özbilgin, H.M. (2012), “Currency Substitution, Inflation, and Welfare”, Journal of Development Economics, 99(2), 358-369.
  • Pepić, M. et al. (2015), “Determinants of Currency Substitution in Southeast European Countries”, Economic Themes, 53(2), 162-184.
  • Samreth, S. (2011), “An Empirical Study on the Hysteresis of Currency Substitution in Cambodia”, Journal of Asian Economics, 22(6), 518-527.
  • Savastano, M.A. (1992), “The Pattern of Currency Substitution in Latin American: An Overview”, Economic Analysis Review, 7(1), 29-72.
  • Selçuk, F. (1994), “Currency Substitution in Turkey”, Applied Economics, 26(5), 509-518.
  • Shahin, W.N. & F.G. Freiha (2005), “Hysteresis in currency substitution: the Middle East and North Africa”, in: Money and Finance in the Middle East: Missed Oportunities or Future Prospects?, 165-181, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Sturzenegger, F. (1997), “Understanding the Welfare Implications of Currency Substitution”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(2-3), 391-416.
  • Tkalec, M. (2013), “Determinants of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries”, Panoeconomicus, 60(1), 89-101.
  • Toda, H.Y. & T. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Valev, N.T. (2010), “The Hysteresis of Currency Substitution: Currency Risk vs. Network Externalities, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(2), 224-235.
  • Viseth, K.R. (2002), “Currency Substitution and Financial Sector Developments in Cambodia”, International and Development Economics Working Papers, 1-4.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008), “Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233.
  • Yasuda, M. (2009), “Link Between Inflation, Exchange Rates and Currency Substitution in Russia”, Conference of the Japan Association for Comparative Economic Studies (JACES) at Ritsumeikan University in Kusatsu, Japan, on (Vol. 24).

Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar

Year 2021, Volume: 29 Issue: 50, 503 - 520, 31.10.2021
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23

Abstract

Para ikamesi olgusu Türkiye ekonomisinde, 1980’li yıllarda serbest piyasa ekonomisine geçiş ve kambiyo rejiminde yapılan değişiklik ile yer bulmaya başlamıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde Ocak 2011-Kasım 2020 dönemi baz alınarak para ikamesinin engellenmesi amacıyla ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama faizinin etkin olarak kullanılıp kullanılmadığı geleneksel ve Fourier nedensellik testleri ile incelenmektedir. Ampirik analizler sonucunda ekonomik aktörlerin nominal döviz kuru beklentilerinde bozulma nedeniyle para ikamesi histerisinin yaşandığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu durumun düzeltilmesi amacıyla politika faizinin etkin olarak kullanılamaması nedeniyle analiz periyodunda faiz oranı histerisi yaşanmamıştır. Çalışmanın temel sorusu olarak ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyetinden para ikamesine doğru hem zaman hem de Fourier alanda nedensellik bulunamamıştır.

References

  • Adom, A.D. et al. (2009), “Currency Substitution in Selected African Countries”, Journal of Economic Studies, 36(November), 616-640.
  • Aigheyisi, O.S. (2015), “Currency Substitution, Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Simultaneous Equations Analysis”, The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, 4(1), 33-44.
  • Akçay, O.C. et al. (1997), “Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Instability: The Turkish Case”, European Economic Review, 41(3-5), 827-835.
  • Aziakpono, M. & S. Babatope-Obasa (2004), “Financial Liberalization, Currency Substitution and Savings in Nigeria: Evidence From Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling”, South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 7(2), 316-340.
  • Bacha, E.L. et al. (2009), “A Panel-Data Analysis of Interest Rates and Dollarization in Brazil”, Revista Brasileira de Economia, 63(4), 341-360.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Domac (2003), “On The Link Between Dollarisation and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey”, Comparative Economic Studies, 45(3), 306-328.
  • Balaylar, N.A. & A.A. Duygulu (2004), “Türkiye’de Para İkamesi Olgusu ve Para Talebinin İstikrarı”, DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 19(2), 33-55.
  • Becker, R. et al. (2006), “A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Bernholz, P. (1989), “Currency Competition, Inflation, Gresham's Law and Exchange Rate”, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE)/Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft, 45(3), 465-488.
  • Calvo, G.A. & C. Vegh (1992), “Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: an Introduction”, IMF Working Paper No. 92/40.
  • Canto, V.A. & G. Nickelsburg (1987), Currency Substitution, Springer, Dordrecht.
  • Civcir, I. (2005), “Dollarization and Its l-Long-run Determinants in Turkey”, Research in Middle East Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, (6), 201-232.
  • Clements, B. & G. Schwartz (1993), “Currency Substitution: The Recent Experience of Bolivia”, World Development, Elsevier, 21(11), 1883-1893.
  • Cuddington, J. (1989), “Commodity Export Booms in Developing Countries”, The World Bank Research Observer, 4(2), 143-165.
  • Darıcı, B. (2004), “Para İkamesi Olgusu ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri”, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Balıkesir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Balıkesir, Türkiye.
  • Doguwa, S.I. (2014), “Currency Substitution: Evidence from Nigeria”, CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 5(2), 1-23.
  • Domac, I. & M. Bahmani-Oskooee (2002), “Between Dollarization and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey”, Discussion Paper 0207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Drazen, A. & E. Helpman (1990), “Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies”, The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 147-164.
  • Edwards, S. & M.S. Khan (1985), “Interest Rate Determination in Developing Countries: A Conceptual Framework”, NBER Working Papers 1531, National Bureau of Economic Research, 377-403.
  • Elifoğlu, H. & Ö. Taşseven (2015), “Macroeconomic Determinants of Currency Substitution in Turkey”, Global Business Research Symposium May 27-29, İstanbul: Beykent.
  • Enders, W. & P. Jones (2016), “Grain Prices, Oil Prices, and Multiple Smooth Breaks in a VAR”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419.
  • Feige, E.L. (2003), “Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De Facto Dollarisation and Euroisation in Transition Countries”, Comparative Economic Studies, 45(3), 358-383.
  • Fendoğlu, E. & E.C. Gökçe (2019), “Türkiye’nin Turizm Geliri Serisinin Durağanlığı: Fourier KPSS Durağanlık Testi”, Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (31), 17-28.
  • Fielding, D. & A. Shortland (2012), “The Dynamics of Terror During the Peruvian Civil War”, Journal of Peace Research, 49(6), 847-862.
  • Freitas, M.L.D. (2003), “Revisiting Dollarisation Hysteresis: Evidence from Bolivia, Turkey and Indonésia”, NIPE Working Papers 12/2003, NIPE, Universidade do Minho.
  • Ghaderi, S. (2017), “The Hysteresis Effect of Currency Substitution in Iran: Divisia Index Approach”, Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 22(72), 187-212.
  • Ghobaee-Arani, Z. et al. (2018), “Welfare Effects of Currency Substitution in Iran (1959-2013)”, Monetary & Financial Economics, 25(15), 251-274.
  • Giovanni, A. & B. Turtelboom (1992), “Currency Substitution”, NBER Working Paper, No: 4232.
  • Girton, L. & D. Roper (1981), “Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 13(1), 12-30.
  • Granger, C.W. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
  • Guidotti, P.E. & C.A. Rodriguez (1992), “Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham's law in reverse?”, International Monetary Fund, IMF Economic Review, 39(3), 518-544.
  • Havrylyshyn, O. & C.H. Beddies (2003), “Dollarisation in the Former Soviet Union: From Hysteria to Hysteresis”, Comparative Economic Studies, 45(3), 329-357.
  • İmrohoroğlu, S. (1994), “GMM Estimates of Currency Substitution Between the Canadian Dollar and the US Dollar”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26(4), 792-807.
  • Kumamoto, H. (2014), “Recent Experiences with Currency Substitution”, International Journal of Financial Research, 5(4), 1-12.
  • Kwiatkowski, D. et al. (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
  • Manjani, O. (2015), “Estimating the Determinants of Financial Euroization in Albania”, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper, No. 07/2015.
  • McKinnon, R.I. (1982), “Currency Substitution and Instability in the World Dollar Standard”, The American Economic Review, 72(3), 320-333.
  • Nazlioglu, S. et al. (2016), “Oil Prices and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Gradual-Shift Causality and Volatility Transmission Analysis”, Energy Economics, 60, 168-175.
  • Olayungbo, D.O. & K.T. Ajuwon (2015), “Dollarization, Inflation and Interest Rate in Nigeria”, Journal of applied Statistics, 6(1), 241-261.
  • Oomes, N. (2003), “Network Externalities and Dollarization Hysteresis: The Case of Russia”, IMF Working Paper, No. 03/96.
  • Ortiz, G. (1983), “Currency Substitution in Mexico: The Dollarization Problem”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 15(2), 174-185.
  • Özbilgin, H.M. (2012), “Currency Substitution, Inflation, and Welfare”, Journal of Development Economics, 99(2), 358-369.
  • Pepić, M. et al. (2015), “Determinants of Currency Substitution in Southeast European Countries”, Economic Themes, 53(2), 162-184.
  • Samreth, S. (2011), “An Empirical Study on the Hysteresis of Currency Substitution in Cambodia”, Journal of Asian Economics, 22(6), 518-527.
  • Savastano, M.A. (1992), “The Pattern of Currency Substitution in Latin American: An Overview”, Economic Analysis Review, 7(1), 29-72.
  • Selçuk, F. (1994), “Currency Substitution in Turkey”, Applied Economics, 26(5), 509-518.
  • Shahin, W.N. & F.G. Freiha (2005), “Hysteresis in currency substitution: the Middle East and North Africa”, in: Money and Finance in the Middle East: Missed Oportunities or Future Prospects?, 165-181, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Sturzenegger, F. (1997), “Understanding the Welfare Implications of Currency Substitution”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(2-3), 391-416.
  • Tkalec, M. (2013), “Determinants of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries”, Panoeconomicus, 60(1), 89-101.
  • Toda, H.Y. & T. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Valev, N.T. (2010), “The Hysteresis of Currency Substitution: Currency Risk vs. Network Externalities, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(2), 224-235.
  • Viseth, K.R. (2002), “Currency Substitution and Financial Sector Developments in Cambodia”, International and Development Economics Working Papers, 1-4.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008), “Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233.
  • Yasuda, M. (2009), “Link Between Inflation, Exchange Rates and Currency Substitution in Russia”, Conference of the Japan Association for Comparative Economic Studies (JACES) at Ritsumeikan University in Kusatsu, Japan, on (Vol. 24).
There are 54 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Tayfur Bayat 0000-0002-4427-0999

Şebnem Taş 0000-0002-7303-3407

Publication Date October 31, 2021
Submission Date May 8, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 29 Issue: 50

Cite

APA Bayat, T., & Taş, Ş. (2021). Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar. Sosyoekonomi, 29(50), 503-520. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23
AMA Bayat T, Taş Ş. Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar. Sosyoekonomi. October 2021;29(50):503-520. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23
Chicago Bayat, Tayfur, and Şebnem Taş. “Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar”. Sosyoekonomi 29, no. 50 (October 2021): 503-20. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23.
EndNote Bayat T, Taş Ş (October 1, 2021) Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar. Sosyoekonomi 29 50 503–520.
IEEE T. Bayat and Ş. Taş, “Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 29, no. 50, pp. 503–520, 2021, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23.
ISNAD Bayat, Tayfur - Taş, Şebnem. “Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar”. Sosyoekonomi 29/50 (October 2021), 503-520. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23.
JAMA Bayat T, Taş Ş. Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar. Sosyoekonomi. 2021;29:503–520.
MLA Bayat, Tayfur and Şebnem Taş. “Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 29, no. 50, 2021, pp. 503-20, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23.
Vancouver Bayat T, Taş Ş. Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar. Sosyoekonomi. 2021;29(50):503-20.