Is Policy Interest Effectively Used in Turkey for Against Currency Substitution: Evidence from Fourier Area

Year 2021, Volume: 29 Issue: 50, 503 - 520, 31.10.2021

Tayfur Bayat , Şebnem Taş

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2021.04.23

Cited By: 3

Abstract

The phenomenon of currency substitution started in the Turkish economy during the transition to a free-market economy in the 1980s with the changing foreign exchange regime. In this context, the study, based on the January 2011-November 2020 period, Turkey's economy to prevent currency substitution, whether the weighted average funding rate is used effectively or not, is examined by traditional and Fourier causality tests. As a result of empirical analysis, it has been determined that currency substitution hysteria is experienced due to economic actors' deterioration in nominal exchange rate expectations. To rectify this situation, no interest rate hysteresis was experienced during the analysis period due to the inability to use the policy rate effectively. As the study's main question, both time and Fourier domain causality from average funding cost to money substitution could not be found.

Keywords

Currency Substitution, Policy Interest, Fourier Approximation, Causality

Türkiye’de Para İkamesine Karşı Politika Faizi Etkin Olarak Kullanılıyor Mu? Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar

Abstract

Para ikamesi olgusu Türkiye ekonomisinde, 1980’li yıllarda serbest piyasa ekonomisine geçiş ve kambiyo rejiminde yapılan değişiklik ile yer bulmaya başlamıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde Ocak 2011-Kasım 2020 dönemi baz alınarak para ikamesinin engellenmesi amacıyla ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama faizinin etkin olarak kullanılıp kullanılmadığı geleneksel ve Fourier nedensellik testleri ile incelenmektedir. Ampirik analizler sonucunda ekonomik aktörlerin nominal döviz kuru beklentilerinde bozulma nedeniyle para ikamesi histerisinin yaşandığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu durumun düzeltilmesi amacıyla politika faizinin etkin olarak kullanılamaması nedeniyle analiz periyodunda faiz oranı histerisi yaşanmamıştır. Çalışmanın temel sorusu olarak ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyetinden para ikamesine doğru hem zaman hem de Fourier alanda nedensellik bulunamamıştır.

Keywords

Para İkamesi, Politika Faizi, Fourier Yaklaşım, Nedensellik Testleri

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