E7 Ülkeleri ile Türkiye Arasındaki Dış Ticaretin Panel Veri Analizi: Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı

Year 2022, Volume: 30 Issue: 51, 407 - 426, 31.01.2022

Makber Tekin , Fahriye Merdivenci

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.20

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Çekim Modeline göre ülkeler arasındaki dış ticaret, GSYH ve ülkeler arasındaki mesafe değişkenleriyle açıklanabilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ve E7 ülkeleri arasında gerçekleşen ticaret hacmine etki eden faktörleri belirlemek ve Çekim Modelinin ticaret hacmini açıklamaya uygunluğunu panel veri analiz ile test etmektir. Dış ticaret ilişkisini etkilemesi beklenen Linder ve nüfus ise modelde açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonucunda, 2000-2018 yılları arasında Çekim Modeli değişkenlerinin Türkiye ve E7 ülkeleri arasındaki ticaret hacmini anlamlı bir şekilde yordadığı bulunmuştur. Buna göre Türkiye’nin E7 ülkeleri ile gerçekleştirdiği ticaret ilişkisi, GSYH ve E7 ülkelerinin nüfusları ile pozitif ve anlamlıdır. Ayrıca dış ticaretin, mesafe ile negatif ve anlamlı ilişkisinin olduğu görülmüştür.

Keywords

Uluslararası Ticaret, E7, Çekim Modeli, Panel Veri Analizi

A Panel Data Analysis of Foreign Trade Between E7 Countries and Turkey: The Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

According to the Gravity Model, international trade should be explained based on GDP and geographical distances among countries. This study aims to determine the factors affecting global trade volume among Turkey and E7 countries and test whether the Gravity Model is suitable for explaining the trade volume using panel data analysis. Linder and population variables that are expected to affect the foreign trade were used as explanatory variables in the model. The study results confirmed that the variables in the gravity model significantly explained international trade among Turkey and E7 countries between the years 2000-2018. According to the results, the international trade of Turkey to E7 countries is positively and significantly related to the GDP and the population variables. Moreover, distance due to geographical location was negatively and significantly linked to international trade.

Keywords

International Trade, E7, Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis

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