Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Hane Halkı Tüketim Harcamaları: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Year 2023, Volume: 31 Issue: 55, 283 - 296, 31.01.2023

Sinem Koçak , Çiğdem Karış

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.15

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı 2003:Q1-2021:Q2 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisinde döviz kuru oynaklığının reel tüketim harcamaları üzerine olan kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerini Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanarak araştırmaktır. Çalışmada döviz kuru oynaklığı serisi için Otoregresif Koşullu Değişen Varyans (ARCH) modelinden elde edilen koşullu varyans değerleri kullanılmıştır. ARDL sınır testinden elde edilen sonuçlar, kısa dönemde reel kur oynaklığının reel tüketim harcamaları üzerinde bir etkisinin olmadığını, uzun dönemde reel kur oynaklığının reel tüketim harcamalarını negatif etkilediğini ortaya koymuştur. Bu bulgu, döviz kuru oynaklığının gayri safi yurt içi hasılanın bir diğer önemli kalemi olan tüketim harcamaları için de önemli bir bileşen olabileceğini göstermiştir.

Keywords

Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı, Tüketim Harcamaları, ARDL Sınır Testi, Türkiye

Exchange Rate Volatility and Domestic Consumption: A Time Series Evidence of Turkey

Abstract

This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on real consumption expenditures in the Turkish economy for 2003:Q1-2021:Q2 by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The analysis uses conditional variance values estimated from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) model for the exchange rate volatility series. The ARDL bounds test results revealed that real exchange rate volatility has no effect on real consumption expenditures in the short run but affects real consumption expenditures negatively in the long run. This finding suggests that the exchange rate volatility may be an important component of consumption expenditures, which is another critical component of GDP.

Keywords

Exchange Rate Volatility, Domestic Consumption, ARDL Bounds Test, Turkey

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