Kamu Borç ve Yatırımları Türkiye’de Dışlama Etkisi Yaratır mı? ARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Year 2023, Volume: 31 Issue: 55, 151 - 172, 31.01.2023

Şeref Can Serin , Murat Demir

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.08

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Kamu kesimi borç kompozisyonunun, özel sektör üzerindeki etkisi bir merak konusudur. Bu makale, 1975-2020 dönemi için ARDL yöntemiyle kamu yatırımı ve kamu borcunun Türkiye'deki özel yatırımlar üzerindeki dışlama etkisini araştırmaktadır. Analizden elde edilen bulgular kamu yatırımı, kamu iç borç stoku ve kamu dış borç servisinin, özel sektör yatırımları üzerinde dışlama etkisi yarattığını göstermektedir. Kamu dış borç stoku ise özel sektör yatırımları üzerinde çekme etkisi yaratmaktadır. Bu çalışma, literatürde daha önce özel sektör yatırımları ile doğrudan ilişkisi araştırılmamış olan kamu borcunun dışlama etkisi incelenmeye çalışılmaktadır.

Keywords

ARDL, Kamu Borcu, Kamu Yatırımları, Dışlama Etkisi

Does Public Debt and Investments Create Crowding-out Effect in Turkey? Evidence from ARDL Approach

Abstract

The impact of public sector debt composition on the private sector is a matter of curiosity. This article explores the crowding-out effect of public debt and public investment on private investment in Turkey from 1975 to 2020, utilising the ARDL method. The findings reveal that public investment, public domestic debt stock, and external debt service create a crowding-out effect; on the other hand, the public external debt stock has a crowding-in effect on private sector investments. In this study, the crowding-out effect of public debt, which has not been directly related to private sector investments in the literature, is tried to be examined.

Keywords

Public Debt, Public Investment, Crowding-Out Effect, ARDL

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