Time-Varying Economic Consequences of Terrorism: The Case of Turkey

Year 2023, Volume: 31 Issue: 55, 459 - 485, 31.01.2023

Ergün Aktürk Muhammet Daştan Ömer Yalçınkaya

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.23

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the economic consequences of terrorism in Turkey over the period of 1970q1-2020q4. For this purpose, the study constructs two different terrorism indices using equal and impact-weighted values of the data belonging to all measurable dimensions of terrorist acts. In addition, the study considers the effects of terrorism on economic growth and its components may vary in different periods (specific periods and short-middle-long terms) and investigates these time-varying effects by employing the TVP-SVAR model. Empirical evidence suggests that time is an important factor in the emergence of the economic consequences of terrorism and/or that these outcomes vary significantly over the sampling period.

Keywords

Terrorism Index, Turkey, Economic Growth, TVP-SVAR Model

Terörizmin Zamanla Değişen Ekonomik Sonuçları: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de terörizmin ekonomik sonuçlarını 1970q1-2020q4 dönemi için incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, terör eylemlerinin ölçülebilen bütün boyutlarına ait verilerin eşit ve etki-ağırlıklı değerleri kullanılarak iki farklı terörizm endeksi oluşturulmaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca, terörizmin ekonomik büyüme ve bileşenleri üzerindeki etkilerinin farklı zaman dilimlerinde (belirli dönemlerde ve kısa-orta-uzun vadede) değişkenlik gösterebileceği hususu dikkate alınmakta ve zamanla değişen söz konusu etkiler TVP-SVAR modelinden faydalanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik kanıtlar, terörizmin ekonomik sonuçlarının ortaya çıkmasında zamanın önemli bir faktör olduğunu ve/veya bu sonuçların analiz döneminde önemli ölçüde değiştiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Terörizm Endeksi, Türkiye, Ekonomik Büyüme, TVP-SVAR Modeli

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