Türkiye’de Sektörel Batık Krediler Döngüsü: Ampirik Bir Analiz

Year 2023, Volume: 31 Issue: 55, 173 - 194, 31.01.2023

Tacinur Akça

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.09

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı toplam kredilerin ne kadarının takibe düştüğü ve hangi sektörlerin bu kredileri geri ödeme konusunda sıkıntı yaşadığı, 2000 sonrası dönem aylık veriler kullanılarak Olay Çalışması yöntemi ile incelemektir. Yatırımların en temel unsuru şüphesiz bankalar tarafından sektörlere kullandırılan kredilerdir. Kullandırılan bu kredilerin hangi sektörler üzerinde yoğunlaştığı ve bu sektörlerin ülke ekonomisine katkıları, ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerinin neler olacağı önemli bir sorun teşkil etmektedir. Bir diğer önemli sorun ise bankalarca kullandırılan kredilerin ödenmesindeki geri dönüşüm sorunudur. Kısaca sorunlu krediler olarak adlandırılan bu durum krizlerin öncü göstergesi olması bakımından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Araştırma bulgularında, hemen hemen seçilen bütün sektörlerde kriz öncesi, kriz dönemi ve kriz sonrası dönemlerde belirgin artışların yaşandığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu açıdan değerlendirildiğinde, bankaların batık kredilerindeki artış oranları ekonominin genel gidişatı ile ilgili bir takım öngörüler sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Takibe Düşen Krediler, Batık Kredi, Bankacılık Sistemi, Olay Çalışması

Sectoral Non-Performing Loans Cycle in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This study examines how much of the total loans are in follow-up and which sectors have difficulties repaying these loans, using the monthly data from the post-2000 period using the Event Study method. Undoubtedly, banks’ loans to the sectors are the most basic investment element. It is a significant problem on which sectors these loans are concentrated on and the contribution of these sectors to the country's economy, and their effects on the economy. Another critical problem is the recycling problem in the payment of loans extended by banks. This situation, called non-performing loans in short, is of great importance in terms of being the leading indicator of crises. The research findings showed significant increases in almost all selected sectors in the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. From this point of view, the rate of growth in non-performing loans of banks provides some predictions about the general course of the economy.

Keywords

Non-Performing Loans, Default Credit, Banking System, Event Study

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