Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 31 Issue: 56, 241 - 277, 28.04.2023

Zafer Barış GÜL Şebnem ARIK Mehmet KULA Selim ÇAĞATAY Şükrü ERDEM

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.02.12

Abstract

Bu çalışmada sektörel kapanmaların Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi (TR61-Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) üzerindeki ekonomik etkileri varsayımsal çıkarma yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, çıktı ve hanehalkı çarpanları ile hem geleneksel hem de varsayımsal çıkarma yöntemi kullanılarak bulunan geri ve ileri bağlantı ölçüleri, kapanmanın etkilerini ve çıkış yollarını çözümleyebilmek için bir arada yorumlanmıştır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak 2017 yılı için kurulmuş bölgesel Girdi-Çıktı tablosu kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, kapanmasının bölge ekonomisi üzerinde en fazla küçülme yarattığı sektörlerin turizm, taşımacılık ve lojistik, tarım, gıda sanayii ve inşaat sektörleri olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, turizm sektörünün kapanmasının, en fazla olumsuz etkilediği sektör balıkçılık sektörü olmuştur.

Keywords

Girdi-Çıktı Analizi, Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi, Kapanma, Bölgesel Etkiler

The Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) in Input-Output Analysis: The Impact Assessment of Sectoral Lockdowns for the Western Mediterranean Region (TR61)

Abstract

This study analyses the economic effects of the sectoral lockdowns on the Western Mediterranean Region (TR61-Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) in Türkiye by employing the Hypothetical Extraction Method-HEM. The analyses used the year-2017 regional input-output table established for TR61. In addition, the study interprets the output and household income multipliers with the forward and backward linkage coefficients estimated by both the conventional approach and the HEM to find the impacts of lock-down and measures to recover. The study’s findings point out that the sectoral lockdown created the most significant contraction in the region in tourism, transportation and logistics, agriculture, food industry and construction sectors. Moreover, the fishing sector is the sector most negatively affected by the lockdown of the tourism sector.

Keywords

Input-Output Analysis, Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM), Lockdown, Regional Effects

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