Küresel Finansal Kriz Sonrasında Reel Ücretlerin İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türk İmalat Sanayi Örneği

Year 2024, Volume: 32 Issue: 61, 147 - 166, 30.07.2024

Ali İlhan , Coşkun Akdeniz

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.08

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2008 küresel finansal krizi sonrasında Türk imalat sanayinde reel ücretlerin istihdam üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. Etki, 24 imalat sektörü için 2009Ç1-2019Ç4 dönemini kapsayacak şekilde panel veri analizi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Panel eşbütünleşme sonuçları reel ücretler ve istihdam arasında uzun dönemli anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koyarken panel genişletilmiş ortalama grup (AMG) tahmincisi sonuçları reel ücretlerin istihdam üzerinde uzun dönemde anlamlı pozitif etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Sektör düzeyindeki etki, bir sektör haricinde anlamsız veya pozitiftir. Bulgular, reel ücretlerdeki artışın, etkin talep kanalıyla mal piyasasını ve milli geliri olumlu etkileyerek istihdamı artırabileceğini göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla, imalat sanayinde efektif talebi iyileştirmeye yönelik ücret politikaları Türkiye’de istihdamı artırabilir.

Keywords

İstihdam, Reel Ücret, Türk İmalat Sanayi, Panel Veri Analizi

The Effect of Real Wages on Employment after the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of the Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of real wages on employment in the Turkish manufacturing industry after the 2008 global financial crisis. The effect was estimated for 24 manufacturing sectors using panel data analysis covering the period from 2009Q1 to 2019Q4. The panel cointegration results demonstrated a significant long-run relationship between real wages and employment, while the panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator results indicated a significant long-run positive effect of real wages on employment. At the sectoral level, the effect was either insignificant or positive except for one sector. These findings indicate that an increase in real wages can raise employment by positively affecting the goods market and national income through the effective demand channel. That is, the manufacturing industry’s wage policies for enhancing effective demand can raise employment in Türkiye.

Keywords

Employment, Real Wage, Turkish Manufacturing Industry, Panel Data Analysis

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