Examining The Impact of Inflation on Financial Development in The Fragile Five Economies with Asymmetric Cointegration Tests

Year 2024, Volume: 32 Issue: 61, 37 - 45, 30.07.2024

Yunus Gülcü

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.03

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between inflation and financial development indicators for the Fragile Five countries between 1981 and 2021. The study analysed the relationship between symmetric and asymmetric distributed lag regression models. Inflation appears to have a negative impact on financial development in countries other than Brazil and India. The results prove that the most extended correction process was experienced in India, and the shortest was experienced in Indonesia among the Fragile Five countries. Research results emphasise that high inflation negatively affects financial development in these economies by increasing the cost of financial intermediation.

Keywords

Financial Development, Inflation Rate, Asymmetric Cointegration

Kırılgan Beşli Ekonomilerinde Enflasyonun Finansal Gelişme Üzerine Etkisinin Asimetrik Eşbütünleşme Testleri ile İncelenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı kırılgan beşli ülkeler için 1981-2021 yılları arasında enflasyon ile finansal gelişme göstergeleri arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Çalışmada söz konusu ilişki simetrik ve asimetrik gecikmesi dağıtılmış regresyon modelleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, Hindistan dışındaki kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde enflasyonun finansal gecikme üzerinde asimetrik etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Enflasyonun Brezilya ve Hindistan dışındaki ülkelerde finansal gelişme üzerinde olumsuz etkisinin bulunduğu görülmektedir. Sonuçlar Kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde en uzun düzeltme sürecinin Hindistan'da, en kısa düzeltme sürecinin ise Endonezya'da yaşandığına yönelik kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Araştırma sonuçları, yüksek enflasyonun finansal aracılığın maliyetini artırarak bu ekonomilerdeki finansal gelişmeyi olumsuz etkilediğini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

Finansal Gelişme, Enflasyon Oranı, Asimetrik Eşbütünleşme

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