Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall's Law Offer Us?

Year 2024, Volume: 32 Issue: 61, 71 - 95, 30.07.2024

Ziya Can

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05

Abstract

This study aims to discuss potential alternatives for economic development in developing countries, with contributions from the theoretical background of Thirlwall's law. Developing countries' foreign trade constraints will be highlighted, followed by a comparison of Türkiye's past growth performance with results obtained from Thirlwall’s Law equations using balance of payments data. Türkiye's actual growth rates closely resemble the growth forecast of Thirlwall’s model, which indicates that post-Keynesian approaches are worth considering to alter the current situation. While providing a perfect solution that could reverse everything for developing countries may be a distant goal, this study aspires to foster a mindset capable of changing the course of events.

Keywords

Post-Keynesian Economics, Thirlwall’s Law, Developing Countries

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Çıkmazı: Thirlwall Yasası Bize Ne Öneriyor?

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Thirlwall yasasının teorik arka planının katkısıyla gelişmekte olan ülkelerde economik kalkınma için hangi alternatiflere yönelmenin mümkün olacağı tartışılacaktır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin dış ticaret alanındaki kısıtlılıkları ortaya koyulduktan sonra Türkiye’nin geçmiş büyüme performansı, Thirlwall Yasası’nda ortaya konan büyüme denklemlerinin ödemeler dengesi verileri kullanılarak elde edilen sonuçlarıyla karşılaştırılacaktır. Thirlwall modelindeki büyüme tahmininin Türkiye’nin gerçekleşen büyüme oranlarına çok yakın sonuç vermesi, mevcut durumun değiştirilmesi için Post-Keynesyen yaklaşımların dikkate alınmaya değer olduklarını göstermektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için kusursuz biçimde her şeyi tersine çevirebilecek çıkış yolu sunmak uzak bir hedef olsa da çalışmanın sonunda gidişatı değiştirebilecek bir düşünme biçimine kapı aralanabileceği umulmaktadır.

Keywords

Post-Keynesyen İktisat, Thirlwall Yasası, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler

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