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Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall's Law Offer Us?

Year 2024, Volume: 32 Issue: 61, 71 - 95, 30.07.2024
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05

Abstract

This study aims to discuss potential alternatives for economic development in developing countries, with contributions from the theoretical background of Thirlwall's law. Developing countries' foreign trade constraints will be highlighted, followed by a comparison of Türkiye's past growth performance with results obtained from Thirlwall’s Law equations using balance of payments data. Türkiye's actual growth rates closely resemble the growth forecast of Thirlwall’s model, which indicates that post-Keynesian approaches are worth considering to alter the current situation. While providing a perfect solution that could reverse everything for developing countries may be a distant goal, this study aspires to foster a mindset capable of changing the course of events.

References

  • Akalın-Özkan, G. (2002), “Thirlwall Yasası ve Makroekonomik Sonuçları”, Öneri Dergisi, 5(17), 203-210.
  • Akyüz, Y. (2008), “Managing Financial Instability in Emerging Markets: A Keynesian Perspective”, Turkish Economic Association Discussion Papers, 2008/4.
  • Başkaya, F. (2000), Kalkınma İktisadının Yükselişi ve Düşüşü (3rd edition), Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
  • Blecker, R. (2001), “Kaleckian Macro Models for Open Economies”, in: J. Deprez & J.T. Harvey (eds.), Foundations of International Economics (126-160), New York: Routledge.
  • Blecker, R.A. (2009), “Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?”, Presented Paper, 2nd Summer School on Keynesian Macroeconomics and European Economic Policies, August 2-9, Berlin.
  • Braudel, F. (2017), Maddi Uygarlık: Dünyanın Zamanı (3rd edition), Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
  • Breusch, T.S. & A.R. Pagan (1979), “A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation”, Econometrica, 47(5), 1287-1294.
  • Breusch, T.S. & A.R. Pagan (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Brown, R.L. et al. (1975), “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149-163.
  • Caldentey, E.P. & J.C. Moreno-Brid (2019), “Thirlwall’s law and the terms of trade: a parsimonious extension of the balance of-payments-constrained growth model”, Review of Keynesian Economics, 7(4), 463-485.
  • Davidson, P. (2001), “Global Employment and Open Economy Macroeconomics”, in: J. Deprez & J.T. Harvey (eds.), Foundations of International Economics (19-44), New York: Routledge.
  • Dönmez-Atbaşı, F. & M. Öziş (2019), “Nerede O Eski IMF Politikaları: Uluslararası Sermaye Hareketlerinin Serbestleşmesi ve Finansal Krizlerin Nedenleri”, Mülkiye Dergisi, 43(3), 577-598.
  • Dowd, D. (2020), Kapitalizm ve Kapitalizmin İktisadı (3rd edition), İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • Elliott, D.R. & R. Rhodd (1999), “Explaining growth rate differences in highly indebted countries: An extension to Thirlwall and Hussain”, Applied Economics, 31(9), 1145-1148.
  • Ersoy, E. (2016), “The Chronic Balance of Payments Constraint on Economic Growth in Turkey”, Review of Social Studies, 3(1), 93-112.
  • Ersoy, M. (1991), “Bağımlılık Okulunun Eleştirisi”, Ekin Belleten, 1991/1, 23-34.
  • Fine, B. & O. Dimakou (2016), Macroeconomics a Critical Companion, London: Pluto Press.
  • Granger, C.W.J. & P. Newbold (1974), “Spurious regressions in econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Hepaktan, E. & H. Karakayalı (2009), “1980-2008 döneminde Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Hadlerinin Analizi”, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi SBE Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 181-210.
  • Hussain, M.N. (1999), “The Balance-of-Payments Constraint and Growth Rate Differences Among African and East Asian Economies”, African Development Review, 11(1), 103-137.
  • Jarque, C.M. & A.K. Bera (1987), “A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals”, International Statistical Review, 55(2), 163-172.
  • Kazgan, G. (2000), İktisadi Düşünce veya Politik İktisadın Evrimi (9th edition), İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi.
  • Köymen, O. (2007), Sermaye Birikirken Osmanlı, Türkiye, Dünya, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1996), “Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.
  • Maravall, A. (2006), “An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment”, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 50(9), 2167-2190.
  • Marx, K. (2015), Kapital vol. III, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • McCombie, J.S. & A.P. Thirlwall (2001), “Growth in an International Context: a Post Keynesian View”, in: J. Deprez & J.T. Harvey (eds.), Foundations of International Economics (45-100), Routledge.
  • McCombie, J.S. (2019), “Why Thirlwall’s Law is not a tautology: More on the debate over the law”, Review of Keynesian Economics, 7(4), 429-443.
  • Moreno‐Brid, J.C. (2003), “Capital flows, interest payments and the balance‐of‐payments constrained growth model: A theoretical and empirical analysis”, Metroeconomica, 54(2‐3), 346-365.
  • Nelson, C.R. & C.R. Plosser (1982), “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.
  • Nurkse, R. (1952), “Some International Aspects of the Problem of Economic Development”, The American Economic Review, 42(2), 571-583.
  • Onaran, Ö. & E. Stockhammer (2005), “Two different export-oriented growth strategies: accumulation and distribution in Turkey and South Korea”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(1), 65-89.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. & P. Perron (1988), “Testing for a unit root in time series regression”, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Salvatore, D. (2013), International Economics (11th edition), New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Satlıgan, N. (2014), Emek-Değer Teorileri ve Dış Ticaret, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • Selik, M. (1988), İktisadi Doktrinler Tarihi (4th edition), Ankara: Gerçek Yayınevi.
  • Somel, C. (2014), Makroiktisada Giriş, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • Song, H. (2012), “New Challenges to the Export Oriented Growth Model, Moving toward a New Development Model for East Asia: The Role of Domestic Policy and Regional Cooperation”, ERIA Research Project Report, 10, 27-54.
  • Stockhammer, E. (1999), “Robinsonian and Kaleckian Growth: An update on post-Keynesian Growth Theories”, Institut. für Volkswirtschaftstheorie und -politik working paper, 67.
  • Tang, C.F. et al. (2015), “How stable is the export-led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons”, Economic Modelling, 44, 229-235.
  • Tekgül, Y.B. & M.F. Cin (2013), “Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 20(2), 317-338.
  • Thirlwall, A.P. & N.H. Hussain (1982), “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries”, Oxford Economic Papers, 34(3), 498-510.
  • Thirlwall, A.P. (1979), “The BoPs constraints as an explanation of international growth rate differences”, PSL Quarterly Review, 32(128), 45-53.
  • Wallerstein, I. (1982), “World-Systems Analysis: Theoretical and Interpretative Issues”, in: I. Wallerstein (ed.), World-Systems Analysis Theory and Methodology (91-103), New York: Sage Publications.
  • Yeldan, E. (2009), Economics of Growth and Distribution, Ankara: Eflatun Publishing House.

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Çıkmazı: Thirlwall Yasası Bize Ne Öneriyor?

Year 2024, Volume: 32 Issue: 61, 71 - 95, 30.07.2024
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Thirlwall yasasının teorik arka planının katkısıyla gelişmekte olan ülkelerde economik kalkınma için hangi alternatiflere yönelmenin mümkün olacağı tartışılacaktır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin dış ticaret alanındaki kısıtlılıkları ortaya koyulduktan sonra Türkiye’nin geçmiş büyüme performansı, Thirlwall Yasası’nda ortaya konan büyüme denklemlerinin ödemeler dengesi verileri kullanılarak elde edilen sonuçlarıyla karşılaştırılacaktır. Thirlwall modelindeki büyüme tahmininin Türkiye’nin gerçekleşen büyüme oranlarına çok yakın sonuç vermesi, mevcut durumun değiştirilmesi için Post-Keynesyen yaklaşımların dikkate alınmaya değer olduklarını göstermektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için kusursuz biçimde her şeyi tersine çevirebilecek çıkış yolu sunmak uzak bir hedef olsa da çalışmanın sonunda gidişatı değiştirebilecek bir düşünme biçimine kapı aralanabileceği umulmaktadır.

References

  • Akalın-Özkan, G. (2002), “Thirlwall Yasası ve Makroekonomik Sonuçları”, Öneri Dergisi, 5(17), 203-210.
  • Akyüz, Y. (2008), “Managing Financial Instability in Emerging Markets: A Keynesian Perspective”, Turkish Economic Association Discussion Papers, 2008/4.
  • Başkaya, F. (2000), Kalkınma İktisadının Yükselişi ve Düşüşü (3rd edition), Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
  • Blecker, R. (2001), “Kaleckian Macro Models for Open Economies”, in: J. Deprez & J.T. Harvey (eds.), Foundations of International Economics (126-160), New York: Routledge.
  • Blecker, R.A. (2009), “Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?”, Presented Paper, 2nd Summer School on Keynesian Macroeconomics and European Economic Policies, August 2-9, Berlin.
  • Braudel, F. (2017), Maddi Uygarlık: Dünyanın Zamanı (3rd edition), Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
  • Breusch, T.S. & A.R. Pagan (1979), “A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation”, Econometrica, 47(5), 1287-1294.
  • Breusch, T.S. & A.R. Pagan (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Brown, R.L. et al. (1975), “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149-163.
  • Caldentey, E.P. & J.C. Moreno-Brid (2019), “Thirlwall’s law and the terms of trade: a parsimonious extension of the balance of-payments-constrained growth model”, Review of Keynesian Economics, 7(4), 463-485.
  • Davidson, P. (2001), “Global Employment and Open Economy Macroeconomics”, in: J. Deprez & J.T. Harvey (eds.), Foundations of International Economics (19-44), New York: Routledge.
  • Dönmez-Atbaşı, F. & M. Öziş (2019), “Nerede O Eski IMF Politikaları: Uluslararası Sermaye Hareketlerinin Serbestleşmesi ve Finansal Krizlerin Nedenleri”, Mülkiye Dergisi, 43(3), 577-598.
  • Dowd, D. (2020), Kapitalizm ve Kapitalizmin İktisadı (3rd edition), İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • Elliott, D.R. & R. Rhodd (1999), “Explaining growth rate differences in highly indebted countries: An extension to Thirlwall and Hussain”, Applied Economics, 31(9), 1145-1148.
  • Ersoy, E. (2016), “The Chronic Balance of Payments Constraint on Economic Growth in Turkey”, Review of Social Studies, 3(1), 93-112.
  • Ersoy, M. (1991), “Bağımlılık Okulunun Eleştirisi”, Ekin Belleten, 1991/1, 23-34.
  • Fine, B. & O. Dimakou (2016), Macroeconomics a Critical Companion, London: Pluto Press.
  • Granger, C.W.J. & P. Newbold (1974), “Spurious regressions in econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Hepaktan, E. & H. Karakayalı (2009), “1980-2008 döneminde Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Hadlerinin Analizi”, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi SBE Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 181-210.
  • Hussain, M.N. (1999), “The Balance-of-Payments Constraint and Growth Rate Differences Among African and East Asian Economies”, African Development Review, 11(1), 103-137.
  • Jarque, C.M. & A.K. Bera (1987), “A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals”, International Statistical Review, 55(2), 163-172.
  • Kazgan, G. (2000), İktisadi Düşünce veya Politik İktisadın Evrimi (9th edition), İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi.
  • Köymen, O. (2007), Sermaye Birikirken Osmanlı, Türkiye, Dünya, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1996), “Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.
  • Maravall, A. (2006), “An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment”, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 50(9), 2167-2190.
  • Marx, K. (2015), Kapital vol. III, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • McCombie, J.S. & A.P. Thirlwall (2001), “Growth in an International Context: a Post Keynesian View”, in: J. Deprez & J.T. Harvey (eds.), Foundations of International Economics (45-100), Routledge.
  • McCombie, J.S. (2019), “Why Thirlwall’s Law is not a tautology: More on the debate over the law”, Review of Keynesian Economics, 7(4), 429-443.
  • Moreno‐Brid, J.C. (2003), “Capital flows, interest payments and the balance‐of‐payments constrained growth model: A theoretical and empirical analysis”, Metroeconomica, 54(2‐3), 346-365.
  • Nelson, C.R. & C.R. Plosser (1982), “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.
  • Nurkse, R. (1952), “Some International Aspects of the Problem of Economic Development”, The American Economic Review, 42(2), 571-583.
  • Onaran, Ö. & E. Stockhammer (2005), “Two different export-oriented growth strategies: accumulation and distribution in Turkey and South Korea”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(1), 65-89.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. & P. Perron (1988), “Testing for a unit root in time series regression”, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Salvatore, D. (2013), International Economics (11th edition), New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Satlıgan, N. (2014), Emek-Değer Teorileri ve Dış Ticaret, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • Selik, M. (1988), İktisadi Doktrinler Tarihi (4th edition), Ankara: Gerçek Yayınevi.
  • Somel, C. (2014), Makroiktisada Giriş, İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
  • Song, H. (2012), “New Challenges to the Export Oriented Growth Model, Moving toward a New Development Model for East Asia: The Role of Domestic Policy and Regional Cooperation”, ERIA Research Project Report, 10, 27-54.
  • Stockhammer, E. (1999), “Robinsonian and Kaleckian Growth: An update on post-Keynesian Growth Theories”, Institut. für Volkswirtschaftstheorie und -politik working paper, 67.
  • Tang, C.F. et al. (2015), “How stable is the export-led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons”, Economic Modelling, 44, 229-235.
  • Tekgül, Y.B. & M.F. Cin (2013), “Post-Keynesyen Talep Yönelimli Büyüme Modelleri”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 20(2), 317-338.
  • Thirlwall, A.P. & N.H. Hussain (1982), “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries”, Oxford Economic Papers, 34(3), 498-510.
  • Thirlwall, A.P. (1979), “The BoPs constraints as an explanation of international growth rate differences”, PSL Quarterly Review, 32(128), 45-53.
  • Wallerstein, I. (1982), “World-Systems Analysis: Theoretical and Interpretative Issues”, in: I. Wallerstein (ed.), World-Systems Analysis Theory and Methodology (91-103), New York: Sage Publications.
  • Yeldan, E. (2009), Economics of Growth and Distribution, Ankara: Eflatun Publishing House.
There are 45 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Heterodox Economics, Growth, Development Economics - Macro
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ziya Can 0000-0001-5919-4821

Early Pub Date July 21, 2024
Publication Date July 30, 2024
Submission Date November 13, 2023
Acceptance Date May 11, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 32 Issue: 61

Cite

APA Can, Z. (2024). Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?. Sosyoekonomi, 32(61), 71-95. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05
AMA Can Z. Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?. Sosyoekonomi. July 2024;32(61):71-95. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05
Chicago Can, Ziya. “Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?”. Sosyoekonomi 32, no. 61 (July 2024): 71-95. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05.
EndNote Can Z (July 1, 2024) Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?. Sosyoekonomi 32 61 71–95.
IEEE Z. Can, “Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 32, no. 61, pp. 71–95, 2024, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05.
ISNAD Can, Ziya. “Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?”. Sosyoekonomi 32/61 (July 2024), 71-95. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05.
JAMA Can Z. Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?. Sosyoekonomi. 2024;32:71–95.
MLA Can, Ziya. “Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 32, no. 61, 2024, pp. 71-95, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.03.05.
Vancouver Can Z. Developing Countries’ Deadlock: What Does the Thirlwall’s Law Offer Us?. Sosyoekonomi. 2024;32(61):71-95.