The Effect of Cryptocurrency Ecosystem and Global Indicators on Bitcoin Price

Year 2025, Volume: 33 Issue: 63, 115 - 142

Ahmet Akusta , Mehmet Nuri Salur

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.01.06

Abstract

This research aims to forecast the price of Bitcoin by identifying the factors that influence its price movements. The study combines 396 variables, categorised into data concerning the cryptocurrency ecosystem and data about significant global indices. The analysis utilises a dataset spanning 90 days from October 2022 to December 2022. The dataset is divided into 85% for training and 15% for testing. Among the 18 machine learning methods, the model demonstrating the highest accuracy is selected. The findings show the solid overall performance of the model, as indicated by an R2 score of 0.909.

Keywords

Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Price Volatility, Blockchain, Machine Learning

Kripto Para Ekosistemi ve Küresel Göstergelerin Bitcoin Fiyatı Üzerindeki Etkisi

Abstract

Bu araştırma, Bitcoin’in fiyatını etkileyen faktörleri belirleyerek Bitcoin'in fiyatını tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, kripto para ekosistemiyle ilgili veriler ve önemli küresel endekslerle ilgili veriler olmak üzere toplamda 396 değişkeni bir araya getirmektedir. Analiz, Ekim 2022’den Aralık 2022’ye kadar olan 90 günlük bir veri setini kullanmaktadır. Veri seti, %85’i eğitim ve %15’i test için ayrılmıştır. 18 makine öğrenme yöntemi arasından en yüksek doğruluğa sahip olan model seçilmiştir. Bulgular, modelin, 0.909 R2 skoruyla iyi bir performans sergilediğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Bitcoin, Kripto Para, Fiyat Hareketliliği, Blokzincir, Makine Öğrenmesi

Ethical Statement

Çalışmamızda bilimsel etik kurallarına uyulduğunu beyan eder, etik kurul izni alınması gerektiren herhangi bir veri içermediğini teyit ederim.

Supporting Institution

Bu çalışma için herhangi bir kurumdan destek alınmamıştır.

Thanks

Bu çalışma için herhangi bir teşekkür açıklaması yoktur.

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