The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of the Trade Partner Countries on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 33 Issue: 64, 43 - 59, 26.04.2025

Ebru Burcu Yardımcı Bozdoğan

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2025.02.02

Abstract

This study investigates whether external uncertainties, which significantly impact the exchange rate through various economic channels, are a determining factor in the Turkish economy. The research analyses the impact of the effective exchange rates (EPUs) of five countries, among Türkiye's most important trading partners, on Türkiye’s real effective exchange rate using monthly quantile regression for the period 2000-2021. According to the key findings, the EPUs in the UK and France increase the value of the Turkish lira against foreign currencies, resulting in an appreciation of the TL, while the EPUs of the USA and Germany decrease the value of the Turkish lira, resulting in a depreciation of the TL. In addition, Russia’s EPU has a negative impact on Türkiye’s real effective exchange rate at only the highest quantile level. The results reveal that the Turkish economy is affected by any economic event in foreign powers, highlighting how globalisation has blurred the distinction between national borders and how countries are interconnected through invisible ties.

Keywords

EPU Index , Economic Policy Uncertainty , Real Effective Exchange Rate

Ticaret Ortağı Ülkelerin Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliğinin (EPU) Türkiye Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru Üzerindeki Etkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, çeşitli ekonomik kanallara sahip olan döviz kurunun kontrol edilmesinde kilit rol oynayan dış belirsizliklerin Türkiye ekonomisi üzerinde belirleyici bir güce sahip olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Araştırmada, Türkiye’nin en önemli ticaret partnerlerinden olan beş ülke EPU’sunun Türkiye’nin reel efektif döviz kuru üzerindeki etkisi, 2000-2021 dönemi için aylık frekansta kantil regresyon kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Temel bulgulara göre, İngiltere ve Fransa için EPU, Türk lirasının yabancı para birimleri karşısındaki değerini artırırken (TL için değer kazancı), ABD ve Almanya için EPU ise Türk lirasının değerini düşürmektedir (TL için değer kaybı). Ayrıca, Rusya’nın EPU’su Türkiye’nin reel efektif döviz kurunu yalnızca en yüksek yüzdelik kantil diliminde negatif olarak etkilemektedir. Sonuçlar, küreselleşme ile birlikte dünya sınırlarının ortadan kalktığını ve ülkelerin birbirini bağlayan görünmez bağlarla birbirine bağlandığını göstermenin yanı sıra, Türkiye ekonomisinin dış güçlerde yaşanan herhangi bir ekonomik olaydan nasıl etkilendiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

EPU Endeksi , Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği , Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru

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