A Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) of the Turkish Economy and Structural Change Between 2003 and 2019

Year 2025, Volume: 33 Issue: 66, 325 - 347

Kazim İlhan Yarikan

Abstract

This study investigates the structural dynamics of Türkiye’s economic growth from 2003 to 2019 using Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) and Input-Output methods. Findings show that growth was primarily driven by final demand (105.96%), with limited contributions from value-added production (1.23%) and a negative impact from structural change (-7.19%). Sectoral analysis reveals weak performance in high-tech sectors and a reliance on imports over exports. Results highlight the need for more profound structural transformation to support sustainable growth and escape the middle-income trap.

Keywords

Economic Growth , Growth Quality , IO Table , Structural Change

Türkiye Ekonomisinin Yapısal Ayrıştırma Analizi (SDA) ve 2003-2019 Arasındaki Yapısal Değişim

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2003-2019 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisinin yapısal dinamiklerini Girdi-Çıktı (Input-Output) yöntemleri ve Yapısal Ayrıştırma Analizi (SDA) kullanarak incelemektedir. Bulgular, ekonomik büyümenin büyük ölçüde nihai talepten (%105,96) kaynaklandığını; katma değer üretiminin (%1,23) sınırlı katkı sağladığını ve yapısal değişimin (%-7,19) olumsuz etkide bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Sektörel analiz, yüksek teknoloji sektörlerinin zayıf performansını ve ihracat yerine ithalata dayalı bir büyüme yapısını ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, sürdürülebilir büyüme ve orta gelir tuzağından çıkış için daha derin bir yapısal dönüşüme ihtiyaç duyulduğunu vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme , Büyüme Kalitesi , IO Tablosu , Yapısal Değişim

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