Technological Unemployment in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: From Job Loss to the Recomposition of Work

Abstract

This article examines technological unemployment through a conceptual, historical, and comparative framework, focusing on how automation and artificial intelligence transform labor markets. Its central research question is not simply whether technological change destroys jobs, but how substitution and compensation mechanisms reshape task composition, skill demand, and job quality. Technological unemployment is therefore treated as a process in which short-term frictional adjustment and longer-term structural mismatch may coexist, producing a broader recomposition of work. The United States, the European Union, and China are selected for comparison because they represent three distinct institutional configurations: a market-led innovation model, a social-state and regulatory adjustment model, and a state-directed industrial-technology model. The comparison shows that similar technological shocks generate different labor-market outcomes depending on education systems, social protection, industrial policy, and labor-market institutions. In Turkey, technological change is analyzed together with informality, skill mismatch, weak school-to-work transitions, low female labor-force participation, and debates on premature deindustrialization. The article concludes that technological unemployment in the age of AI is more likely to appear through the contraction of routine middle-skill tasks, the automation of selected cognitive tasks, the emergence of complementary tasks, and changes in job quality than through uniform mass job destruction. Accordingly, the social effects of technology are institutionally mediated rather than technologically predetermined.[

Keywords

• technological unemployment
• automation
• artificial intelligence
• skill mismatch
• future of work

Yapay Zekâ Çağında Teknolojik İşsizlik: İş Kaybından İşin Yeniden Bileşimine

Abstract

Bu makale, teknolojik işsizlik olgusunu kavramsal, tarihsel ve karşılaştırmalı bir çerçevede inceleyerek otomasyon ve yapay zekâ çağında emek piyasalarının dönüşümünü analiz etmektedir. Çalışmanın temel araştırma sorusu, teknolojik gelişmenin iş kaybı yaratıp yaratmadığından daha ileri bir düzeyde, yapay zekâ ve otomasyonun ikame ve telafi mekanizmaları aracılığıyla işlerin görev bileşimini, beceri talebini ve iş kalitesini nasıl yeniden biçimlendirdiğidir. Teknolojik işsizlik bu nedenle yalnızca iş kaybı olarak değil, friksiyonel geçiş sorunları ile kalıcı yapısal uyumsuzlukların iç içe geçtiği ve işin yeniden bileşimini doğuran bir süreç olarak ele alınmaktadır. Karşılaştırmalı bölümde ABD, Avrupa Birliği ve Çin; sırasıyla piyasa merkezli inovasyon modeli, sosyal devlet ve düzenleyici uyum modeli ile devlet yönlendirmeli sanayi-teknoloji modelini temsil ettikleri için seçilmiştir. Bu karşılaştırma, teknolojik şokların benzer olmasına rağmen istihdam sonuçlarının eğitim sistemi, sosyal koruma, sanayi politikası ve işgücü kurumlarına bağlı olarak farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Türkiye örneğinde teknolojik dönüşüm; kayıt dışılık, beceri uyumsuzluğu, eğitim-istihdam kopukluğu, kadınların düşük işgücüne katılımı ve erken sanayisizleşme tartışmalarıyla birlikte değerlendirilmektedir. Makalenin ulaştığı temel sonuç, yapay zekâ çağında teknolojik işsizliğin kitlesel iş yok oluşundan çok, orta beceri gerektiren rutin görevlerin daralması, bazı bilişsel görevlerin otomasyona açılması, yeni tamamlayıcı görevlerin ortaya çıkması ve iş kalitesinin yeniden düzenlenmesi biçiminde görünür olduğudur. Bu nedenle teknolojik dönüşümün toplumsal sonucu teknoloji tarafından tek başına belirlenmemekte; eğitim politikaları, işgücü kurumları, sosyal koruma sistemleri ve verimlilik kazançlarının bölüşüm biçimi tarafından şekillendirilmektedir.

Keywords

• teknolojik işsizlik
• otomasyon
• yapay zeka
• beceri uyumsuzluğu
• işin geleceği

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