The Mediating Role of Energy Consumption in the Impact of Trade Openness and Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions: The Case of Turkey
Abstract
Research on carbon emissions (CO2 emissions) and their determinants as part of environmental pollution has been ongoing for a long time and continues. The aim of this study is to examine the mediating role of energy consumption in the relationship between economic growth, trade openness, and carbon emissions (CO₂) in the context of Turkey. Data analysis, statistical evaluations, and visualization processes were conducted using the R programming language for the period 1965–2022. The analysis results indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) variable, representing economic growth, has a negative and statistically significant effect on both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Turkey. Furthermore, it was determined that approximately 73.8% of the total effect of GDP on CO₂ emissions occurs indirectly through energy consumption. The effect of trade openness on both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions was found to be positive and statistically significant. However, when examined in terms of mediation, the mediating role of energy consumption in the relationship between trade openness and CO₂ emissions was not found to be statistically significant. On the other hand, the direct effect of the mediator variable (energy consumption) on CO₂ emissions was negative and statistically significant.
Keywords
Economic Growth, Trade Openness, Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption, Mediation Effect
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