Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye

Yüksel Okşak; Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu

doi:10.52642/susbed.1944472

TR EN

İhracat ve Döviz Kuru Arasında EKC Hipotezi Geçerli mi? Türkiye'ye İlişkin Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de ihracat ile döviz kuru arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) tipi doğrusal olmayan bir yapı sergileyip sergilemediğini 1987-2024 dönemi yıllık verileri üzerinden incelemektedir. Analizde ihracat bağımlı değişken, döviz kuru temel açıklayıcı değişken, ithalat ise kontrol değişkeni olarak kullanılmış; tüm değişkenler Dünya Bankası WDI veri tabanından elde edilmiştir. Değişkenlerin bütünleşme dereceleri KPSS durağanlık testiyle belirlenmiş ve serilerin ARDL sınır testi için gerekli koşulları sağladığı görülmüştür. AIC kriterine göre seçilen ARDL(5,1,0,1) modeliyle yapılan eşbütünleşme analizi, ihracat, döviz kuru, döviz kurunun karesi ve ithalat arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönem tahminlerinde döviz kuru katsayısının pozitif, döviz kurunun karesi katsayısının ise negatif ve anlamlı bulunması, Türkiye’de ihracat ile döviz kuru arasında ters-U biçimli bir ilişkinin varlığını desteklemektedir. Bulgular, ihracatın belirli bir kur eşiğine kadar arttığını, bu eşiğin aşılmasıyla kur artışlarının ihracat performansını zayıflatabildiğini göstermektedir. İthalat değişkeninin pozitif ve anlamlı etkisi, Türkiye’de ihracat üretiminin ithal girdi yapısıyla güçlü biçimde bağlantılı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

İhracat, Döviz Kuru, Durağanlık, Eşbütünleşme, ARDL Analizi

Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine if the export-performance-exchange rate relationship for Türkiye is characterized by a non-linear EKC-style pattern. In order to analyze this relationship, an ARDL framework is constructed with annually observed data over the period from 1987-2024 and total imports as a control variable. First, the integration properties of all variables have been tested with KPSS tests. None of the variables are found to have integration orders higher than one, and thus ARDL modelling criteria is met. Then, bounds testing proves the cointegration between exports, the exchange rate, and imports which means there exists a long run equilibrium between these three variables. The long-run analysis clearly indicates a positive exchange rate coefficient and negative quadratic exchange rate coefficient, proving a U-shaped relationship between exchange rate value and export performance. The battery of diagnostic tests performed at the end clearly demonstrates that there is no serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, non-normality, specification errors or parameter instability in the model.

Keywords

Exports, Exchange Rate, Stationarity, Cointegration, Ardl Analysis

References

Amiti, M., Itskhoki, O., & Konings, J. (2014). Importers, exporters, and exchange rate disconnect. American Economic Review, 104(7), 1942-1978. doi:10.1257/aer.104.7.1942
Arize, A. C., Osang, T., & Slottje, D. J. (2000). Exchange-rate volatility and foreign trade: Evidence from thirteen LDC’s. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 18(1), 10-17. doi:10.1080/07350015.2000.10524843
Asteriou, D., Masatci, K., & Pilbeam, K. (2016). Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries. Economic Modelling, 58, 133-140. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.006
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Hegerty, S. W. (2007). Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: A review article. Journal of Economic Studies, 34(3), 211-255. doi:10.1108/01443580710772777
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Ratha, A. (2004). The J-curve: A literature review. Applied Economics, 36(13), 1377-1398. doi:10.1080/0003684042000201794
Burstein, A., & Gopinath, G. (2014). International prices and exchange rates. In G. Gopinath, E. Helpman, & K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of international economics (Vol. 4, pp. 391-451). Amsterdam: Elsevier. doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-54314-1.00007-0
Bussière, M., Delle Chiaie, S., & Peltonen, T. A. (2014). Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy: The role of emerging market economies. IMF Economic Review, 62(1), 146-178. doi:10.1057/imfer.2014.5
Campa, J. M., & Goldberg, L. S. (2005). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), 679-690. doi:10.1162/003465305775098189
Chit, M. M., & Judge, A. (2011). Non-linear effect of exchange rate volatility on exports: The role of financial sector development in emerging East Asian economies. International Review of Applied Economics, 25(1), 107-119. doi:10.1080/02692171.2010.483463
Chit, M. M., Rizov, M., & Willenbockel, D. (2010). Exchange rate volatility and exports: New empirical evidence from the emerging East Asian economies. The World Economy, 33(2), 239-263. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01230.x

Clark, P. B. (1973). Uncertainty, exchange risk, and the level of international trade. Economic Inquiry, 11(3), 302-313. doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1973.tb01063.x
Dinda, S. (2004). Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis: A survey. Ecological Economics, 49(4), 431-455. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.02.011
Dornbusch, R. (1987). Exchange rates and prices. American Economic Review, 77(1), 93-106.
Erduman, Y., Eren, O., & Gül, S. (2020). Import content of Turkish production and exports: A sectoral analysis. Central Bank Review, 20(4), 155-168. doi:10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.07.001
Ethier, W. (1973). International trade and the forward exchange market. American Economic Review, 63(3), 494-503.
Goldberg, P. K., & Knetter, M. M. (1997). Goods prices and exchange rates: What have we learned? Journal of Economic Literature, 35(3), 1243-1272.
Gopinath, G., Boz, E., Casas, C., Díez, F. J., Gourinchas, P. O., & Plagborg-Møller, M. (2020). Dominant currency paradigm. American Economic Review, 110(3), 677-719. doi:10.1257/aer.20171201
Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377. doi:10.2307/2118443
Héricourt, J., & Poncet, S. (2015). Exchange rate volatility, financial constraints, and trade: Empirical evidence from Chinese firms. The World Bank Economic Review, 29(3), 550-578. doi:10.1093/wber/lht035
Hooper, P., & Kohlhagen, S. W. (1978). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 8(4), 483-511. doi:10.1016/0022-1996(87)90001-8
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
McKenzie, M. D. (1999). The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(1), 71-106. doi:10.1111/1467-6419.00075
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. doi:10.1002/jae.616
Rose, A. K. (1990). Exchange rates and the trade balance: Some evidence from developing countries. Economics Letters, 34(3), 271-275. doi:10.1016/0165-1765(90)90130-S
Solakoglu, M. N., Solakoglu, E. G., & Demirag, T. (2008). Exchange rate volatility and exports: A firm-level analysis. Applied Economics, 40(7), 921-929. doi:10.1080/00036840600749888
Tarakçı, D., Ölmez, F., & Durusu-Çiftçi, D. (2022). Exchange rate volatility and export in Türkiye: Does the nexus vary across the type of commodity? Central Bank Review, 22(2), 77-89. doi:10.1016/j.cbrev.2022.05.001
Thorbecke, W., & Sengonul, A. (2023). The impact of exchange rates on Turkish imports and exports. International Economics, 174, 231-249. doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2023.04.003
Tunc, C., & Solakoglu, M. N. (2017). Not all firms react the same to exchange rate volatility? A firm level study. International Review of Economics & Finance, 51, 417-430. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2017.07.002

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

International Economics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Yüksel Okşak ^*
0000-0001-8794-4597
Türkiye

Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu
0000-0001-7930-4901
Türkiye

Publication Date

August 30, 2026

Submission Date

May 5, 2026

Acceptance Date

July 8, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: 60

DOI

https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1944472

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA22RF83DS

APA

Okşak, Y., & Yalçınkaya Koyuncu, J. (2026). Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 60, 257-270. https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1944472

AMA

1.Okşak Y, Yalçınkaya Koyuncu J. Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye. SUSBED. 2026;(60):257-270. doi:10.52642/susbed.1944472

Chicago

Okşak, Yüksel, and Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu. 2026. “Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye”. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, nos. 60: 257-70. https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1944472.

EndNote

Okşak Y, Yalçınkaya Koyuncu J (August 1, 2026) Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 60 257–270.

IEEE

[1]Y. Okşak and J. Yalçınkaya Koyuncu, “Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye”, SUSBED, no. 60, pp. 257–270, Aug. 2026, doi: 10.52642/susbed.1944472.

ISNAD

Okşak, Yüksel - Yalçınkaya Koyuncu, Jülide. “Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye”. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 60 (August 1, 2026): 257-270. https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1944472.

JAMA

1.Okşak Y, Yalçınkaya Koyuncu J. Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye. SUSBED. 2026;:257–270.

MLA

Okşak, Yüksel, and Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu. “Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye”. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 60, Aug. 2026, pp. 257-70, doi:10.52642/susbed.1944472.

Vancouver

1.Yüksel Okşak, Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu. Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye. SUSBED. 2026 Aug. 1;(60):257-70. doi:10.52642/susbed.1944472

24108 28027

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

İhracat ve Döviz Kuru Arasında EKC Hipotezi Geçerli mi? Türkiye'ye İlişkin Kanıtlar

Abstract

Keywords

Is EKC Hypothesis Valid Between Exports and Exchange Rate: Evidence From Türkiye

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite