ABD’nin Azerbaycan İlişkilerine Etki Eden Parametreler

Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birliği’nin 1991’deki çöküşü, dünya güvenliğinin güvencede olduğu; iki kutup arasında sıcak çatışmaların yaşanmadığıSoğuk Savaşdöneminin bitmesi anlamına geliyordu. SSCB’yi oluşturan 15 özerk cumhuriyetin 1991 yılında bağımsızlığına kavuşmasıAvrasya bölgesinde önce bir “güç boşluğu”na neden olmuş; ardından da “denge” unsurunu ortadan kaldırmıştır. Güney Kafkasya bölgesinde yer alan Azerbaycan da aynıdönemde bağımsız olmuş; zengin hidrokarbon kaynaklarıyla küresel/bölgesel güçlerin dikkatini üzerine çekmiştir. Azerbaycan bir yandan baskıcıSSCB’nin ardından bağımsızlığınıkoruma/sürekliliğini sağlama mücadelesine girmiş, diğer yandan da bölgesel/küresel güçlerin Bakü topraklarıüzerindeki çıkar çatışmalarından kendini kurtaramamış; bunu da ülkesinin yüzde yirmisinin işgali ile ağır ödemiştir/ödemektedir. ABD’nin genel anlamda dışpolitikada öncelikleri: ABD dışpolitikasının temel hedeflerinden biri ağırlıklıolmak üzere enerji alanında yatırım yapan başta ABD olmak üzere Batısermayesinin güvenliğini sağlamak olmuştur. ABD’nin bir başka ülke olan Afganistan’da bu amaca ulaşmak için Taliban’ı1990’larda desteklemesi de bu ülkenin hedefine ulaşmak için yöntem konusunda seçici olmadığına ilişkin bir örnektir. ABD, konjontür gereği sürekli dile getirdiği “insan hakları”, “demokrasi” gibi batıdeğerlerini göz ardıedebilmekte; amaca ulaşmak için de idealizm teorisinden ziyade realizm teorisini tereddüt etmeden kullanabilmektedir Bu çalışmada ABD’nin Bakü siyaseti 1991–2009 analiz edilmiştir. ABD, 1991 sonrasıdünyada “tek kutupluluğa” giden denge mücadelesinde küresel üstünlüğünü pekiştirmek için, jeopolitik teorilere göre dünya üzerinde hâkimiyet kurabilmek için jeostratejik/politik bir öneme sahip olan Avrasya’ya yönelmiştir. Aynıbölgede yer alan, sözü edilen “tek kutupluluğa” karşıçıkan ve tedbir olarak da örgütlenen Rusya Federasyonu, Çin ve İran bu bağlamda değerlendirilecektir. Çalışmamızda ABD – Azerbaycan arasındaki ilişkilere etki eden parametreler analiz edilecek; buna paralel olarak ABD ile Rusya, Çin ve İran arasındaki siyasal ilişkiler ön plana çıkarılacak; okuyucuya bilinenlerin sentezinden ziyade, yeni olmasa da değişik bir bakışaçısısunulmaya çalışılacak; özellikle güvenlik alanında geleceğe yönelik değerlendirmelerde bulunulacak ve Washington’un Bakü siyaseti bu bağlamda incelenecektir.

The collapse of the USSR in 1991 signified the end of the Cold War period, during which world security was secured and no hot wars were waged between the two opposing camps. Gaining independence of 15 autonomous republics forming the USSR in 1991 first created a “power vacuum” in the Eurasian region and later eliminated the “balance” factor. The almost “indispensable” position of Azerbaijan for the US and other countries in the region leads regional and global powers towards formulating “Baku-centered” policies. One attribute of Baku that makes it almost “a center of attraction” hyperbolically- is its rich hydrocarbon resources and explorable reserve potentials. Azerbaijan struggled, on one hand, to preserve/maintain its independence after the oppressive USSR and failed to avoid the conflicts of interest of regional/global powers over Baku, on the other, for which it paid and is still paying a heavy price with the occupation of a twenty percent of its lands. As for the US’s priorities in foreign policy: One of the main objectives of US foreign policy has been to maintain the security of Western, chiefly US, capital which largely invests in the energy sector. The US support in Afghanistan for Taliban in the 1990s for this purpose exemplifies non-selective attitude of the US in its methods used to achieve its goals. The US may conjuncturally overlook the Western values it continuously asserts, such as “human rights” and “democracy”, and not hesitate to employ the realist theory, instead of idealist theory, to gain its ends The US similarly formulated a policy in accordance with its interests concerning the democratic developments in US and Azerbaijan, which could be exemplified by all general elections in Azerbaijan from its independence up until 2008 and the claims that the presidential elections were rigged, to which the US and the West did not properly reacted. It is impossible to analyze the US’s Azerbaijan policy independently from the regional powers, one of which is Iran. Our study examines this subject in detail due to its importance for global security. Iran is located where the roads to the Middle Asia and Caucasus, the most important hydrocarbon centers in the region after the Middle East, meet. Another sign of the country’s importance is its control over “the Strait of Hormuz”, the windpipe – hyperbolically – of the West’s energy source. Furthermore, the country ranks the third among other countries with its oil reserves and the second after Russia with its natural gas reserves and its capacity to influence global energy balance particularly among European countries by its possible cooperation with Russia to transport this resource to global markets has concerned the West and particularly the US. Azerbaijan is a neighbor to Iran, one of the countries described by the US as “the Evil Triangle” with an insistent policy of nuclear armament, which has occupied the global agenda and in this context, the US policy for Baku and Tehran gains significance. The events of 9/11– so to speak – gave impetus to US-Iran relations in a negative manner. After this date, the US has categorized the countries of the world in two groups: 1. Threatening and 2. Friendly countries. In particular, the view has gained influence that the US made Iran a target country by the “Bush Doctrine”. Similarly, the North Korean “nuclear test” in May 2009 raised concerns about security throughout the world and chiefly in the US and turned attentions again towards Iran, which seek to acquire nuclear arms, and US-Iran relations. Rather than a synthesis of what is already known within this context, our study aims to offer a new, though not entirely new, perspective about US-Iran relations in terms of “acquirement of nuclear arms”, in particular, which it attempts to evaluate in the context of US-Azerbaijan relations. The present study also seeks to analyze the reality behind the claim that “the target is Iran” following the Bush Doctrine expressed by the US, again within the context of Washington-Baku relations. Russia is another influential country in the region. It would not be wrong to assess the US policy towards Azerbaijan as an indirect US policy towards the Russian Federation. There were only two countries in the Caspian region in the USSR period, whereas the number of countries with a sea coast later rose to five, which meant the end of Russian hegemony over the region and a “power vacuum” was created; thus, the “balance” factor disappeared. One basic aspect underlying the US policy towards Baku has been the attempts to prevent Russia from maintaining/enhancing its influence over this country rich in hydrocarbon. In other words, the US’s Azerbaijan policy means its indirect Russian policy, which has been one of the main parameters that shaped Washington’s policy towards Baku. China is another power in the region. In a report made public in February 2006, Pentagon stated that China may be the only power that can challenge the US as a single superpower and recommended precautions, which points to the significance of this country. Here, the keyword is: “taking precautions against China”. The country against which precautions need to be taken concluded with Iran an agreement about liquefied gas purchase for 25 years amounting to 20 billion dollars by ignoring the US economic embargo on Iran and thus, secured Iran-China relations for the next 25 years, which has come to the fore as an important factor in the relations between the two countries. Our study does not deal in detail with the technological support of China for Iran chiefly in the acquirement of nuclear arms as well as other cooperation agreements; however, it is of significance that Iran became a member to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, with China and Russia as active members, in 2005 with an observer status, an act of membership despite the US policy of globally isolating Iran. The increasing energy need for its developing industry has forced China to diversify its energy dependence and in this