Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ekonomik Performans

Küreselleşme sürecinin hız kazanmasıile birlikte ülkeler arasındaki sermaye transferi oldukça önemli hale gelmiştir. Bu bağlamda gelişme sürecindeki ülkelerin ekonomik getirileri açısından daha çok doğrudan yabancıyatırımlara ağırlık verdiği görülmektedir. Ancak doğrudan yabancıyatırımların ekonomik performansıolumsuz yönde etkileyen taraflarıda bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada doğrudan yabancıyatırımlar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensel bağıntı, Türkiye ekonomisi için 1992:1-2007:9 verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Ulaşılan ampirik bulgulara göre değişkenler uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etmektedirler.

With the globalization process, economic, commercial and technologic boundaries have become uncertain and in this way capital transfer has been possible between different countries. Capital transfers which is realized through short term portfolio investment and foreign direct investment FDI are very important especially for the countries of which national savings are inadequate. Developing countries prefer mostly FDI. Because short term portfolio investment may affect the exchange rates negatively by causing overvaluation for the home country’s national currency and damage the balance of current accounts. People controlling the hot money may rapidly withdraw it when they decide that home country’s balance of current accounts is not sustainable. This situation leads to deepen the crisis there. Therefore, developing countries campaign for attracting FDI generally. The International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual defines FDI as “an investment that is made to acquire a lasting interest is an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor, the investor’s purpose being to have an effective voice in the management of the enterprise.” The basic reason of FDI is international profit differences. In other words, it is because overseas profit is more than domestic one. Most of such investment is made by multinational enterprises. These enterprises are managed by a single headquarter and make manufacturing in other countries. FDI has different roles in a country’s development process. In developing countries adequate and necessary investment cannot be realized since their domestic savings rate is low and foreign savings rate is very low. Here FDI helps diminish domestic and foreign savings deficits. FDI provides a country with technology transfer and increase in employment as its reason of existence is producing goods and services. FDI also helps increase in tax revenues since it raises the added value. Moreover, FDI makes a contribution for making production more qualitative and workforce more productive. FDI has some positive effects on home country’s economy, but it also has some negative effects on it. Some of these negative effects are foreign control on home country’s key sectors; disordered economic integrity; abolition of protective foreign trade restrictions; providing unfair competitive advantage; damaging balance of payments through profit transfers and creating technologic dependency for the home country. There are very different arguments about the effects of FDI on economic growth. In some of the empirical studies, there are positive relationships between FDI and economic growth, but in some others exact opposite results can be seen. For example, Afşar 2008 investigated the relationship between FDI and economic growth for the Turkish economy for the period 1992:12006:3. The empirical results showed that there was a one-way relationship between FDI and economic growth and the direction of this relationship was from FDI to economic growth. Alagöz, Erdoğan and Topallı 2008 examined the relationship between FDI and economic growth for the period 1992-2007 in Turkey. The analysis showed that there was not any granger causality relationship between FDI and economic growth. Also in this paper, 2002-2007 periods was studied by using regression analysis. According to this analysis the effects of FDI on economic growth was found as medium intensive. Örnek 2008 analyzed the causality relationship between foreign capital and domestic saving using time series data over the quarterly period 1996:4-2006:1 in Turkey. Empirical evidence showed that FDI have positive and significance effects on domestic saving in both short and longrun. However, short term capital inflows have negative effect on domestic savings in both short and long-run. Also, it has been found that short term capital inflows and FDI have positive effect on economic growth. In this paper, the objective is to analyze the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Turkey by using the data covering the time period between 1992:1 and 2007:9. Turkey is one of the powerful economies in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, The Black Sea and the Middle East. Turkish economy is also one of the biggest commercial partners of the European Union. Capital account liberalization in Turkey was initiated in conjunction with the process of economic and financial reforms that started in 1980, and was fully completed in 1989. Before 1980, capital flows were controlled through foreign exchange regulations. After 1980, capital account liberalization started with the Decrees No 28 and 30, which were put into force in December 1983 and July 1984, respectively. These decrees partly liberalized the capital accounts and full capital account liberalization was accomplished in 1989. In order to analyze the relationship between FDI and economic growth econometrically in the process of financial liberalization, the stationarity test, VAR model, co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse-response functions and variance decompositions are used. The first step in applying the co-integration test is to test for stationarity. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron test statistics were used to test for stationarity of the data. It was found that the data were stationary at level. After stationarity test, in order to estimate the VAR model, the optimal lag length was selected using the information criteria. The SC criteria determined four lag length for the model. The VAR model was estimated with four lags. The result of co-integration test showed that there was a long term equilibrium relationship between the foreign direct investment and economic growth. According to Granger causality test there is a bidirectional relationship between FDI and economic growth. Finally impulse-response functions and variance decompositions were used in the study. Impulse-response functions help determine the extent to which a shock that hits one variable affects other variables in the VAR system. According to the impulseresponse functions, a positive shock FDI has a significant positive effect on the economic growth. Similarly a positive shock to economic growth has a positive effect on FDI. Variance decompositions show the percentage of forecast variance in the variable of the VAR that is explained by innovations of all variables within the VAR. The results from the variance decompositions show that FDI explain a reasonable proportion of the forecast error variance in economic growth but explanatory power of economic growth is lower