Economic Growth, Export and Eximbank Loans: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

Year 2025, Issue: 57, 317 - 326, 30.08.2025

İbrahim Özaytürk

https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1713947

Abstract

Following the choices made on January 24, Türkiye has transitioned to an export-oriented economic development model, marking a significant shift in its economic strategy. In subsequent years, the Turkish economy has endeavored to integrate more with the global economy and align with the liberalization mandates of the contemporary era. The implementation of an export-oriented economic growth model necessitated resources to finance the export-driven production strategy, leading to the establishment of Eximbank in 1987 to address this resource requirement. Eximbank, primarily established to finance exports, also indirectly fosters the expansion of the Turkish economy. This study aims to examine the causal link between net exports, which directly influence economic growth, and the financing extended by Eximbank. The study will look at how economic growth, Eximbank loans, and Türkiye's exports are connected by using the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Causality Test on data from 1999 to 2024, after checking for stability with ADF and PP Unit Root Tests. The study indicates that fluctuations in Eximbank credits may influence exports and economic growth, while economic growth may concurrently affect Eximbank credits and exports. The study's conclusion also presents recommendations pertinent to the research.

Keywords

International Economics , Export , Economic Growth , Eximbank Loans

Ekonomik Büyüme, İhracat ve Eximbank Kredileri: Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

24 Ocak kararlarıyla birlikte ekonomik büyüme modelinde köklü değişime giden Türkiye, bu tarihten itibaren büyüme modeli olarak ihracata dayılı bir ekonomik büyüme modelini benimsemiştir. İlerleyen yıllar itibariyle dünya ekonomine daha fazla entegre olmaya başlayan Türk ekonomisi, çağın gerektirdiği ekonomide liberalleşmeye ayak uydurmaya çalışmıştır. İhracata dayalı bir ekonomik büyüme modelinin benimsenmesi neticesinde ihracata dayalı üretim şeklinin finansmanı için kaynak ihtiyacı doğmuş ve bu kaynak ihtiyacının finansmanı için 1987 yılında Eximbank kurulmuştur. Temel amacı ihracatın finansmanı olan Eximbank, aynı zamanda Türkiye ekonomisinin büyümesine de dolaylı yoldan katkı sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, ekonomik büyümeye direk etkisi bulunan net ihracatla Eximbank tarafından sağlanan krediler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmak istenmektedir. Ekonomik büyüme, Eximbank kredileri ve Türkiye’nin ihracatı arasındaki nedensel ilişkinin 1999-2024 yıllarını kapsayan veri seti kullanılarak Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Nedensellik Testi ile araştırılacağı çalışmada önce ADF ve PP Birim kök Testleri yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda, Eximbank kredilerindeki bir değişmenin ihracat ve ekonomik büyümenin nedenseli olabileceği; aynı zamanda ekonomik büyümenin de Eximbank kredilerinin ve ihracatın bir nedenseli olabileceği ortaya konulmuştur. Çalışmanın sonuç kısmında çalışma ile ilgili görüşlere de yer verilmektedir.

Keywords

Uluslararası İktisat , İhracat , Ekonomik Büyüme , Eximbank Kredileri

References

• Abraham, F. & Dewit, G. (2000). Export Promotion via Official Export Insurance. Open Economies Review, 11(1), 5-26. Doi: 10.1023/A:1008388511974.
• Agarwal, N. & Wang, Z. (2016). Does The US Exim Bank Really Promote US Exports?. The World Economy, 41(5), 1378-1414. doi:/10.1111/twec.12537
• Al-Yousif, Y. K. (2002). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Another Look at the Evidence from Developing Countries. Review of Financial Economics, 11(2), 131-150. Doi:10.1016/S1058-3300(02)00039-3
• Amiti, M. & Weinstein, D. E. (2009). Exports and Financial Shocks. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper. (No. w15556). Doi:10.1093/qje/qjr033
• Awokuse, T. O. (2003). Is The Export led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Canada?. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D’économique, 36(1), 126-136. Doi: 10.1111/1540-5982.00006
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1993). Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling. The Journal of Developing Areas, 27(4), 535- 542.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Domac, I., (1995). Export Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis. Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, 22(1), 67-77.
• Beck, T. (2002). Financial Development and International Trade: Is There A Link? Journal of International Economics, 57(1), 107-131. Doi: 10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00131-3
• Ceylan, S. & Durkaya, M. (2010). Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanimi-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 21-35.
• Chaudhary, M. A., Shırazı, N. S. ve Choudhary, M. A. (2007). Trade Policy and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: A Revisit. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 45(1), 1-26.
• Chor, D. ve K. Manova (2012). Off The Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Economics. Elsevier. 87(1). 117-133. doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.04.001
• Chow, P. C. (1987). Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from The Nics. Journal Of Development Economics, 26(1), 55-63.
• Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
• Egger, P. & Url, T. (2006). Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria. World Economy, 29(4), 399-418. Doi:10.1111/j.1467- 9701.2006.00790.x
• Hatemi-j, A. (2002). Export Performance and Economic Growth Nexus in Japan: A Bootstrap Approach. Japan and the World Economy, 14(1), 25-33. Doi: 10.1016/S0922- 1425(01)00071-8
• Hsiao, M. C. V. (1987). Test of Causalty and Exogenity between Exports and Economic Growth: The Case of Asian NIC’s. Journal of Economic Development, 12(2), 143-59.
• Kletzer, K. & Bardhan, P. (1987). Credit Markets and Patterns of International Trade. Journal of Development Economics, 27(1-2), 57-70. Doi: 10.1016/0304-3878(87)90006-X.
• Mah, J. S. (2005). Export Expansion, Economic Growth and Causality in China. Applied Economics Letters, 12(2), 105-107. Doi: 10.1080/1350485042000314343
• Melitz, M. J. (2003). The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate industry Productivity. Econometrica, 71(6), 1695-1725. doi:10.1111/1468-0262.00467
• Moser, C., Nestman, T. & Wedow, M. (2008). Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany. World Economy, 31(6), 781-803. Doi:10.1111/j.1467- 9701.2008.01102.x
• Özekenci, E. K. (2024). International Market Selection Based on Integrated MCDM Methods: A Case Study of Iron and Steel Sector. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 27(1), 274-293. https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.1440711
• Phillips, C.B. P. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regressions. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
• Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis. Economic Modelling, 18(4), 613-623. Doi:10.1016/S0264-9993(00)00055-9
• Rousseau, P. L., & Wachtel, P. (1998). Financial Intermediation and Economic Performance: Historical Evidence from Five Industrialized Countries. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 657-678.
• Ross, D. G. & Pike, R. H. (1997). Export Credit Risks and the Trade Credit Offer: Some Canadian Evidence. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 7(1), 55-70. Doi:10.1016/S1042-444X(97)00005-4.
• Shan, J. & Morris, A. (2002). Does Financial Development Lead Economic Growth?. International Review of Applied Economics, 16(2), 153-168. Doi:10.1080/02692170110118885
• Thangavelu, M. & Jiunn, A. B. (2004). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Analysis. Empirical Economics, 29(2), 247-260.
• Toda, H.Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Auto Regressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
• Wamboye, E. ve Mookerjee, R. (2014). Financial Development and Manufactured Exports: The African Experience. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 7(1), 22-34. doi:10.1504/IJEPEE.2014.059898