İklim Değişikliği Çevresel Bozulma ile Tarımsal Hasıla Bağlantısını Güçlendiriyor mu? Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ampirik Kanıtlar

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde 1990-2020 döneminde tarımsal hasıla ile çevresel bozulma, iklim değişikliği, tarımsal istihdam ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi araştırılmaktadır. Metodoloji: Değişkenlerin doğrudan ve etkilşimli etkileri iki farklı model yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Ampirik yöntem olarak Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından önerilen ARDL Sınır Testindne yararlanılmıştır. Uzun dönem ilişkinin varlığı sonrası uzun ve kısa dönem sonuçları iki model için ayrı ayrı rapolanmıştır. Bulgular: Ampirik bulgular ilgili değişkenke arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını göstermiştir. Uzun dönem bulguları sıcaklık artışlarının tarımsal hasılayı artırdığını; CO2 emisyonu, iktisadi büyüme ve tarımsal istihdam artışlarının ise tarımsal hasılayı azalttığı sonucunu ortaya koymuştur. Kısa dönemde ise sadece ekonomik büyümenin tarımsal hasıla üzerindeki etkisinin negatif olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Özgünlük: Uzun dönemde iklim değişikliği ve çevresel bozulmanın tarımsal hasıla üzerindeki etkileşimli etkisinin, doğrudan etkilere göre daha yüksek derecede ve olumsuz yönde olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuç, iklim değişikliğinin ve çevresel bozulma sorununun birlikte ele alınmasının önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Anahtar kelimeler: Tarım, İklim Değişikliği, Çevresel Bozulma, Zaman Serisi Analizi, Türkiye

Keywords

• Tarım
• İklim Değişikliği
• Çevresel Bozulma
• Zaman Serisi Analizi
• Türkiye

Does Climate Change Strengthen the Link between Environmental Degradation and Agricultural Output? Empirical Evidence on the Turkish Economy

Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates the relationship between agricultural output and environmental degradation, climate change, agricultural employment and economic growth in the Turkish economy for the period 1990-2020. Methodology: Direct and interactive effects of variables are investigated with the help of two different models. As an empirical method, the ARDL bounds test proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is utilized. After the existence of a long-run relationship, the long and short-run results are reported separately for the two models. Findings: Empirical findings show the existence of cointegration relationship between the relevant variables. Long-run findings show that increases in temperature increase agricultural output, while increases in CO2 emissions, economic growth and agricultural employment decrease agricultural output. In the short run, only economic growth has a negative effect on agricultural output. Originality: In the long run, the interactive effect of climate change and environmental degradation on agricultural output is found to be higher and more negative than the direct effects. This result reveals the importance of addressing climate change and environmental degradation together. Key words: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, Time Series Analysis, Türkiye.

Keywords

• Agriculture
• Climate Change
• Environmental Degradation
• Time Series Analysis
• Türkiye.

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