Tarımsal verimlilik, ekonomik büyüme ve karbon emisyonu arasındaki ilişki: Türk Cumhuriyetlerinden kanıtlar

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışmada, Türk Cumhuriyetleri ülkelerinde (Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Özbekistan, Tacikistan, Türkiye ve Türkmenistan) 1992–2022 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak tarımsal verimlilik, ekonomik büyüme ve karbon (CO₂) emisyonu arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Analizde, CD ve homojenlik testlerinin ardından ikinci nesil birim kök testi olarak CADF yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ardından eş bütünleşme testi yapılmıştır. Nedensellik ilişkileri ise Kónya panel nedensellik testiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular: Bulgulara göre panel düzeyinde CO₂’den tarımsal verimliliğe doğru bir nedensellik tespit edilirken, tarımsal verimlilikten CO₂’ye doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi gözlenmemiştir. Benzer şekilde tarımsal verimlilikten ekonomik büyümeye doğru nedensellik ilişkisi bulunurken, ekonomik büyümeden tarımsal verimliliğe doğru herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Ayrıca ekonomik büyüme ile CO₂ arasında panel düzeyinde çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Yatay kesit düzeyinde ülke bazlı sonuçlar ise ilişkilerin farklılaştığını ortaya koymuştur. Kazakistan’da CO₂ ile tarımsal verimlilik arasında çift yönlü nedensellik, Türkiye ve Türkmenistan’da CO₂’den tarımsal verimliliğe doğru nedensellik bulunmuştur. Kazakistan, Kırgızistan ve Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve CO₂ arasında çift yönlü nedensellik, Özbekistan ve Türkmenistan’da CO₂’den ekonomik büyümeye doğru nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Tacikistan ve Türkmenistan’da tarımsal verimlilikten ekonomik büyümeye bir nedensellik, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeden tarımsal verimliliğe doğru bir nedensellik bulunmuştur. Özgünlük/Değer: Bu çalışma, karbon emisyonu, tarımsal verimlilik ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi Türk Cumhuriyetleri özelinde inceleyen nadir araştırmalardan biri olup, 1992-2022 dönemine ait uzun dönemli veriler ve ikinci nesil panel veri yöntemleri kullanarak literatüre metodolojik ve bölgesel açıdan özgün katkılar sunmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, bölgeye özgü dinamikler ışığında sürdürülebilir kalkınma politikalarına yön verecek niteliktedir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik büyüme
• karbon emisyonu
• tarımsal verimlilik
• Türk Cumhuriyetleri

The relationship between agricultural productivity, economic growth and carbon emissions: Evidence from the Turkic Republics

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to examine the causality relationships between agricultural productivity, economic growth and carbon (CO₂) emissions using annual data for the period 1992–2022 in the Turkic Republics (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Türkiye and Turkmenistan). Design/Methodology/Approach: In the analysis, the CADF method was used as the second-generation unit root test after the CD and homogeneity tests. Then, the cointegration test was performed. The panel causality relationships were analyzed using the causality test by Kónya. Findings: According to the findings, while a causality from CO₂ to agricultural productivity was detected at the panel level, no causality was observed from agricultural productivity to CO₂. Similarly, while there was a causal relationship from agricultural productivity to economic growth, no causal relationship from economic growth to agricultural productivity could be detected. In addition, bidirectional causality was found between economic growth and CO₂ at the panel level. At the cross-sectional level, country-based results revealed that relations differed. A bidirectional causality was found between CO₂ and agricultural productivity in Kazakhstan, and a causality from CO₂ to agricultural productivity was found in Türkiye and Turkmenistan. Bidirectional causality between economic growth and CO₂ was found in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Türkiye, and causality from CO₂ to economic growth was found in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. A causality from agricultural productivity to economic growth was found in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and economic growth to agricultural productivity in Türkiye. Originality/Value: This study is one of the rare studies examining the relationship between carbon emissions, agricultural productivity and economic growth in the Turkish Republics, and offers original methodological and regional contributions to the literature by using long-term data for the period 1992-2022 and second-generation panel data methods. The findings will guide sustainable development policies in the light of region-specific dynamics.

Keywords

• Economic growth
• carbon emissions
• agricultural productivity
• Turkic Republics

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