Tarım ihracatında performansın anatomisi: Türkiye üzerine sektörel bulgular

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin sekiz tarımsal alt sektörüne ait ihracat performansını etkileyen belirleyicileri sektörel düzeyde analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmanın temel hedefi, döviz kuru, alıcı ülke geliri ve tarımsal verimlilik gibi makro değişkenlerin sektörel ihracat üzerindeki etkilerini ortaya koymaktır. Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: –2022 dönemine ait panel veri kullanılarak sabit etkiler ve IV (2SLS) tahmin yöntemleri temel analiz yöntemleri olarak uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca GMM tahmincileri ek bir sağlamlık kontrolü amacıyla denenmiş, ancak sonuçlar ekonometrik varsayımlarla tutarlı bulunmadığından raporlanmamıştır. Bağımlı değişken olarak ihracat değeri, bağımsız değişkenler olarak reel efektif döviz kuru (REER), alıcı ülkelerin GSYH’si (GDP) ve tarımsal toplam faktör verimliliği (TFP) değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular: Döviz kurunun ihracat üzerindeki etkisi çoğu sektörde anlamlı ve negatiftir. GDP değişkeni tüm sektörlerde pozitif ve anlamlı bulunmuştur. TFP değişkeni yalnızca tütün sektöründe anlamlıdır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin bazı sektörlerde karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğe sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Araştırma Sınırlamaları/Etkileri: Bu çalışmada odaklanılan kavramsal çerçeve doğrultusunda, üretim kapasitesini temsilen yalnızca tarımsal toplam faktör verimliliği (TFP) değişkeni modele dâhil edilmiştir; diğer üretim faktörleri ise araştırma kapsamı dışında bırakılmıştır. Özgünlük/Değer: Çalışma, ürün bazlı sektörel ayrım yaparak, döviz kuru ve dış talep kanalları üzerinden ihracat performansına dair yeni ve detaylı ampirik bulgular sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Tarımsal ihracat
• döviz kuru
• dış talep
• panel veri
• verimlilik

Anatomy of agricultural export performance: Sectoral evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the determinants of agricultural export performance across eight sub-sectors in Türkiye. The main objective is to identify the sector-specific effects of macroeconomic factors such as exchange rates, income levels of importing countries, and agricultural productivity. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using panel data from 2012 to 2022, Fixed Effects (FE) and Instrumental Variables (IV, 2SLS) are employed as the main estimation techniques. In addition, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators were tested as a robustness check; however, since the results were not consistent with econometric assumptions, they are not reported. The dependent variable is the sectoral export value, while REER, GDP, and TFP are included as key explanatory variables. Findings: The effect of the exchange rate on exports is significant and negative in most sectors. The GDP variable is found to be positive and significant across all sectors. The TFP variable is significant only in the tobacco sector. The results indicate that Türkiye holds comparative advantages in certain sectors. Research Limitations/Implications: In line with the conceptual framework adopted in this study, only agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) is included to represent production capacity, while other production-related variables are deliberately excluded from the scope of analysis. Originality/Value: The study provides novel empirical insights into sectoral heterogeneity by examining agricultural export performance through the lens of exchange rate competitiveness and demand-side factors at the product level.

Keywords

• Agricultural exports
• exchange rate
• external demand
• panel data
• productivity

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