Jeopolitik risk ve gıda fiyat enflasyonu: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ekonomilerden yeni kanıtlar

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışma, 1995–2024 döneminde 32 gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ekonomide jeopolitik risk ile yurt içi gıda fiyat enflasyonu arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemekte; farklı jeopolitik risk göstergeleri, ülke özellikleri ve dönemler arasındaki heterojenliğe özellikle odaklanmaktadır.

Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Çalışmada, jeopolitik risk ile gıda enflasyonu arasındaki dinamik ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla panel vektör otoregresif (PVAR) yaklaşımı kullanılmaktadır. Ülkeye özgü jeopolitik risk (GPRC), küresel jeopolitik risk (GPRG), jeopolitik tehditler (GPRT) ve jeopolitik eylemler (GPRA) olmak üzere dört alternatif jeopolitik risk göstergesi dikkate alınmıştır. Etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve tahmin hata varyans ayrıştırmaları kullanılarak, jeopolitik risk yenilikleriyle ilişkili tepki örüntülerinin büyüklüğü, kalıcılığı ve dinamik özellikleri değerlendirilmiştir.

Bulgular: Bulgular, jeopolitik riskteki yeniliklerin gıda enflasyonundaki kısa dönemli artışlarla ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, bu ilişkinin niceliksel katkısı petrol fiyatları ve para politikası koşulları gibi geleneksel makroekonomik belirleyicilere kıyasla daha sınırlı kalmaktadır. Ayrıca, elde edilen tepkilerin oldukça heterojen ve dönemsel koşullara bağlı olduğu görülmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ekonomiler ile net gıda ithalatçısı ülkelerde enflasyon tepkileri daha güçlü ve kalıcı iken, gelişmiş ve gıda ihracatçısı ekonomilerde daha sınırlı ve geçici örüntüler gözlenmektedir. Bunun yanı sıra, jeopolitik risk ile gıda enflasyonu arasındaki ilişkinin 2008 sonrası dönemde daha belirgin hale geldiği görülmektedir.

Özgünlük/Değer: Bu çalışma, jeopolitik riskin farklı boyutlarını bütünleşik bir Panel VAR çerçevesi içinde birlikte inceleyerek ve yapısal heterojenliğin gıda enflasyonu dinamiklerindeki önemini vurgulayarak literatüre katkı sunmaktadır. Alternatif jeopolitik risk göstergeleri arasındaki farklılıkları ve bunlarla ilişkili tepki örüntülerini inceleyen çalışma, jeopolitik risk ile gıda fiyatları arasındaki dinamik ilişkiye dair yeni bulgular ortaya koymakta ve gıda güvenliği ile makroekonomik politika tartışmaları açısından önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Gıda fiyat enflasyonu
• jeopolitik risk
• panel VAR

Geopolitical risk and food price inflation: New evidence from advanced and emerging economies

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the relationship between geopolitical risk and domestic food price inflation across 32 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1995–2024, with a particular focus on heterogeneity across different geopolitical risk measures, country characteristics, and time periods.

Design/Methodology/Approach: A panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) framework is employed to analyse the dynamic relationship between geopolitical risk and food inflation. Four alternative measures of geopolitical risk—country-specific GPR, global GPR, GPR threats, and GPR acts—are considered. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions are used to evaluate the magnitude, persistence, and dynamic response patterns associated with geopolitical risk innovations.

Findings: The results indicate that innovations in geopolitical risk are associated with short-run increases in food inflation, although their quantitative contribution remains comparatively limited relative to traditional macroeconomic drivers such as oil prices and monetary conditions. Importantly, the observed responses are highly heterogeneous and state dependent. Emerging economies and food-import-dependent countries exhibit stronger and more persistent inflationary responses, whereas advanced and food-exporting economies display more muted and transitory patterns. In addition, the association between geopolitical risk and food inflation appears to have become more pronounced in the post-2008 period.

Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by jointly analysing multiple dimensions of geopolitical risk within a unified PVAR framework and by highlighting the importance of structural heterogeneity in food inflation dynamics. By distinguishing between alternative GPR measures and examining their associated response patterns, the paper provides new evidence on the dynamic relationship between geopolitical risk and food prices, offering relevant implications for food security and macroeconomic policy discussions.

Keywords

• Food price inflation
• geopolitical risk
• panel VAR

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