İklim politikası belirsizliğinin tarımsal yatırımlara etkisi

Year 2025, Volume: 31 Issue: 1, 91 - 103, 30.06.2025

Veysel Karagöl , Ayşegül Şahin

https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.1628954

Abstract

Amaç: Tarım sektörü hem sürdürülebilir kalkınma hem de gıda güvenliği açısından stratejik bir öneme sahiptir. Ancak, iklim değişikliği ve buna bağlı olarak artan fiziksel ve politik belirsizlikler, bu sektördeki yatırımları riske atmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ABD’de iklim politikası belirsizliği ile tarımsal yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi 1995-2022 dönemi için incelemektir.
Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: İklim politikası belirsizliği ile tarımsal yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkileri analiz etmek için doğrusal olmayan ARDL yöntemi ve asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanılmaktadır. Nonlinear yöntemler, açıklayıcı değişkenlerin pozitif ve negatif değişimlerini ayrı ayrı değerlendirerek bağımlı değişken üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri ölçmeyi sağlamaktadır.
Bulgular: NARDL modelinin sonuçlarına göre, iklim politikası belirsizliğindeki artışlar uzun dönemde tarımsal yatırımları azaltmaktadır. Asimetrik nedensellik testi, NARDL modeli tarafından tanımlanan asimetrik ilişkiler için ek kanıt sağlamaktadır. İklim politikası belirsizliğinin pozitif şokundan tarımsal yatırımların negatif şokuna doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir asimetrik nedensellik vardır.
Özgünlük/Değer: Çalışma, iklim politikası belirsizliğinin yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisini tarım sektörü açısından inceleyerek literatürdeki boşluğu doldurmaktadır. Bu, tarım sektörü gibi iklime oldukça duyarlı bir alanda, söz konusu ilişkinin uzun vadeli sonuçlarını anlamaya yönelik yeni bir perspektif sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

İklim değişikliği, iklim politikası belirsizliği, tarım, tarımsal yatırımlar

The impact of climate policy uncertainty on agricultural investments

Abstract

Purpose: The agricultural sector is strategically important for sustainable development and food security. However, climate change and the increasing physical and political uncertainties that come with it put investments in this sector at risk. This study examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and agricultural investments in the USA from 1995-2022.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Symmetric and asymmetric causality tests, as well as the Nonlinear ARDL method are used to analyze the relationships between variables. Nonlinear methods allow us to measure asymmetric effects on the dependent variable by evaluating the positive and negative changes of the explanatory variables separately.
Findings: No symmetric causality relationship is found between the variables. However, there is a statistically significant asymmetric causality from the positive shock of climate policy uncertainty to the negative shock of agricultural investments. The results of the NARDL model robust this finding. Accordingly, increases in climate policy uncertainty reduce agricultural investments in the long run.
Originality/Value: This study fills the gap in the literature by examining the impact of climate policy uncertainty on investments in the agricultural sector. This provides a new perspective to understand the long-term consequences of this relationship in a highly climate-sensitive area such as the agricultural sector.

Keywords

Agricultural investments, agriculture, climate change, climate policy uncertainty, NARDL

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