Mekânsal otokorelasyon ve kümeleme analizi yaklaşımı ile Göksu Çayı Havzası’nın (Sakarya Nehri Havzası) bütünleşik ve sürdürülebilir havza yönetim modeli

Öz

Doğal ve beşeri ortam koşullarının yoğun etkileşim halinde olduğu havzalarda birçok kapsamda
çeşitli modellerle yönetim çalışmaları uygulanmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın amacı, coğrafi çeşitliliği,
etkileşimleri ve potansiyel riskleri barındıran Göksu Çayı Havzası’nın farklı değişkenler üzerinden
mekânsal otokorelasyon ve kümeleme analizine dayalı havza yönetim modelinin oluşturulmasıdır.
Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemlerinin (CBS) etkin kullanıldığı çalışmada, deterministik, kantitatif,
korelasyon ve dağılış analizi yöntemleriyle çok basamaklı sistematik oluşturulmuştur. Havzanın
bütün coğrafi unsurlarını, etkileşimleri, doğal dinamik işleyiş yapısını ortaya koymak ve ilişkisel
olarak kümelenme dağılışını oluşturmak için birçok parametrenin analizleri ile dört ana değişken
(alt model) üretilmiştir. Ana değişkenler, jeomorfolojik uygunluk-elverişlilik, yağış akış, çoklu-risk
ve arazi kullanım modellerinden oluşur. Her bir model karşılıklı olarak mekansal korelasyona tabi
tutulmuş ve havzanın kümeleme analizi dağılış verisi üretilmiştir. Beş farklı kümenin tespit edildiği
veri, sorun-risk potansiyeli ve sürdürülebilir-uygun kullanım potansiyeli açısından da analiz
edilmiştir. Daha sonra dağılış verisi, Lokal Moran’s I-Anselin testi ve Getis-Ord Gİ istatistiği ile anlamlılık
ve kümelenme açısından test edilmiştir. Analizlerden, havzanın yüksek çerçevesini oluşturan
sahaların sürdürülebilir-uygun kullanım potansiyeline sahip kümelenme gösterdiği, İnegöl
Ovası, Yenişehir kuzeyi ve Göksu Vadisi’nde sorun-risk potansiyeli yüksek kümelenmenin olduğu
tespit edilmiştir. Havzada sürdürülebilirliğin sağlanması için, ekolojik sahaların korunması, sel,
taşkın, erozyon, heyelan tedbirlerin arttırılması, akarsulardaki su kalitesinin kontrol edilmesi ve
antropojenik baskı yoğunlaşmasının daha uygun alanlara yönlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Havza Yönetim Modeli
• Kümeleme Analizi
• Sürdürülebilirlik
• Mekânsal Oto-Korelasyon

Integrated and sustainable watershed management model of Göksu River Basin (Sakarya River Basin) with spatial autocorrelation and cluster analysis approach

Abstract

In the basins where natural and human environmental conditions are in intense interaction,
management studies are carried out with various models in many contexts. In this study, it
is aimed to create a watershed management model based on spatial auto correlation and
clustering analysis over different variables of the Göksu River Basin, which has geographical
diversity, interactions and potential risks. In the study, in which Geographical Information
Systems (GIS) was used effectively, a multi-step system was created with deterministic, quantitative,
correlation and distribution analysis methods. Four main variables (sub-models) were
produced by analyzing many parameters in order to reveal all the geographical elements,
interactions, natural dynamic functioning of the basin and to establish the cluster distribution
as relation. The main variables consist of the geomorphological suitability-availability model,
the precipitation runoff model, the multi-risk model, and the land use model. Each model was
subjected to spatial correlation and cluster analysis distribution data of the basin were produced.
The data, in which 5 different clusters were identified, were also analyzed in terms of
problem-risk potential and sustainable-appropriate use potential. Then, the distribution data
was tested for significance and clustering with the Local Moran’s I-Anselin test and the Getis-
Ord GI statistic. From the analyzes, it has been determined that the areas forming the high
frame of the basin show a cluster with sustainable-appropriate use potential, and there is a
cluster with high problem-risk potential in İnegöl Plain, north of Yenişehir and Göksu Valley. In
order to ensure sustainability in the basin, it is necessary to protect ecological areas, increase
flood, overflow, erosion, landslide measures, control water quality in streams and direct anthropogenic
pressure concentration to more suitable areas.

Keywords

• Model of Wtarershed Management
• Cluster Analysis
• Sustainability
• Spatial Auto-Correlation

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