An integrated Bayesian Best-Worst Method and GIS-based approach for offshore wind power plant site selection: A case study in North Aegean and Marmara Sea (Türkiye)

Abstract

In today’s world, renewable energy sources are in great demand due to the negative effects of fossil fuels on the environment. Wind power plants are an important renewable energy source alternative to fossil fuel consumption. Offshore wind farms established in coastal areas and seas are used effectively in many parts of the world. The wind power plants, especially in the Northwest region of Turkey and the Aegean coasts, constitute an important potential. This study selects suitable sites for offshore wind farms in the Marmara Sea and North Aegean Coasts of Turkey by integrating the Bayesian Best-Worst method (BWM) and GIS. Bayesian BWM improves the traditional BWM integrating the preferences of multiple experts. In the study, 17 sub-criteria were determined under four main criteria of “technical”, “socio-economic”, “environment,” and “location”. Experts’ judgments through the filled enabled the criterion weights to be obtained. The criteria weights found using the Bayesian-BWM model were integrated into the GIS, and suitable locations for the offshore wind farm were determined. Accordingly, the study area off the coasts of Aliağa, Bozcaada, and Gökçeada on the North Aegean coast, and the part south of the Marmara Sea and the area around Kapıdağ Peninsula are suggested as suitable areas for wind power plants.

Keywords

• Offshore wind energy
• Site selection
• Bayesian BWM
• GIS

Açık deniz rüzgar enerjisi santrali saha seçimi için entegre bir Bayesian En İyi-En Kötü Yöntemi ve CBS tabanlı yaklaşım: Kuzey Ege ve Marmara Denizi’nde (Türkiye) bir vaka çalışması

Öz

Günümüz dünyasında fosil yakıtların çevreye olan olumsuz etkilerinden dolayı yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları büyük talep görmektedir. Rüzgâr santralleri, fosil yakıt tüketimine alternatif önemli bir yenilenebilir enerji kaynağıdır. Kıyı bölgelerinde ve denizlerde kurulan offshore rüzgâr santralleri dünyanın birçok yerinde etkin bir şekilde kullanılmaktadır. Rüzgâr santralleri dikkate alındığında özellikle Türkiye’nin Kuzeybatı bölgesi ve Ege kıyıları önemli bir potansiyel oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Bayesian Best-Worst yöntemini (BWM) CBS’ye entegre ederek Türkiye’nin Marmara Denizi ve Kuzey Ege Kıyılarında açık deniz rüzgâr santralleri için uygun yer seçimini belirlemektir. Bayesian BWM, birden çok uzmanın tercihlerini etkili bir şekilde entegre ederek orijinal BWM’yi optimize eder. Çalışmada BWM modeli kullanılarak “teknik”, “sosyo-ekonomik”, “çevre” ve “konum” olmak üzere dört ana kriter altında 17 kriter belirlenmiş, kriterleri içeren anketler uzmanlar tarafından doldurulmuş ve son ağırlıkları verilmiştir. Bayesian-BWM modeli kullanılarak bulunan kriter ağırlıkları CBS’ye entegre edilmiş ve açık deniz rüzgâr çiftliği için uygun yerler bulunmuştur. Buna göre, Kuzey Ege kıyılarındaki Aliağa, Bozcaada ve Gökçeada açıklarındaki çalışma alanı ile Marmara Denizi’nin kısmen güneyi ve Kapıdağ Yarımadası çevresi rüzgâr santrali için uygun alanlar olarak önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Offshore Rüzgar Enerjisi
• Yer Seçimi
• Bayesyen BWM
• CBS.

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