An Assessment of Earthquake Hazard for Muş Province and Its Surrounding Areas After the Kahramanmaraş-Centered Earthquakes on February 6th

Abstract

The Muş basin, located in eastern Turkey, has many active faults and fault zones. Also, the region has been exposed to many medium and large earthquakes with devastating effects in the historical and instrumental periods. In this study, the tectonic structure of the region was investigated by Coulomb stress analysis using earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw≥4.0 that occurred in the Muş basin between 2010-2023. Also, we produced the Coulomb stress variaiton maps for different depth levels. The positive Coulomb stress changes are observed at shallow depths along the Kargapazarı and Elmalı segments associated with the North Anatolian fault zone and along with the Varto Fault zone located around the Karlıova triple junction. On the contrary, the stable Coulomb stress changes are observed in and around the Bulanık Fault, Haçlıgölü Fault, and Malazgirt Fault, located in the east of Muş City. As a result, the probability of seismic activity is higher at shallow depths, especially in the northeast of Muş City centre, compared to other regions..

Keywords

• Eastern Turkey
• Muş
• Coulomb Stress Change
• Seismicity

6 Şubat Kahramanmaraş Merkezli Depremler Sonrasında Muş İli Ve Yakın Çevresinin Deprem Tehlikesine Yönelik Bir Değerlendirme

Öz

Türkiye’nin doğusunda bulunan Muş havzası birçok aktif fay ve fay zonuna sahiptir. Ayrıca bölge tarihsel ve aletsel dönemde yıkıcı etkiye sahip orta ve büyük birçok depreme maruz kalmıştır. Bu çalışmada, Muş havzasında 2010-2023 yılları arasında meydana gelen ve büyüklükleri Mw≥4.0 olan depremler kullanılarak bölgenin tektonik gerilme durumu Coulomb gerilme analizi ile incelenmiştir. Derinlik ile birlikte statik gerilme değişimlerini modellemek için farklı derinlik seviyeleri içim Coulomb gerilme değişimi haritaları oluşturulmuştur. Özellikle, Muş havzasının kuzey batısında bulunan Karlıova üçlü birleşimi civarında bulunan Kuzey Anadolu Fay zonu ile ilişkili Kargapazarı ve Elmalı segmentleri ile Varto Fay zonu boyunca sığ derinliklerde pozitif Coulomb gerilme değerleri göze çarpmaktadır. Bunun aksine, Muş şehir merkezinin doğusunda bulunan Bulanık Fayı, Haçlıgölü Fayı ve Malazgirt Fayı civarında ise gerilme değişiminin daha durağan olduğu gözlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Muş şehir merkezinin özellikle kuzey doğusunda sığ derinliklerde sismik aktivite ihtimali diğer bölgelere göre daha yüksektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğu Türkiye
• Muş
• Coulomb Gerilme Değişimi
• Depremsellik

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