Earthquake and house prices relationship: Analyses for Istanbul and Izmir in terms of eathquake resistance

Abstract

Earthquakes have always had great effects and importance in the history of humanity as a natural disaster, the time and severity of which cannot be determined in advance, and which directly affects the lives of people exposed to it with its sudden and devastating consequences. In the historical manner, the geography of Türkiye has also been the scene of major and destructive earthquakes, and today it’s called as an earthquake country. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze the effect of earthquake resistance of houses on house prices in Istanbul and Izmir, the two largest metropolises of Türkiye. With this aim, the first section of the study explains the relationship between earthquake and housing market. Within the scope of this section, the relationship between earthquake readiness and housing prices in two earthquake cities, Istanbul and Izmir, is examined. In the second part, the determinants of housing prices and the literature on earthquake as a determinant are analyzed. Finally, in the third section, cross-sectional data analyzes for Istanbul and Izmir on the effects of earthquake resistance on housing prices are given. Within the scope of this section, evaluations are made over the prices of 380 houses in Istanbul and 280 houses in Izmir. According to the results of the analyses, the variables that affect the housing prices for both Izmir and Istanbul and are found to be significant are the proximity to the city center, the presence of the parking lot and the proximity to the sea. However, resistance to earthquakes is not found to be a significant determinant of house prices.

Keywords

• Earthquake
• House Prices
• Earthquake Resistant Houses
• Cross Section Analysis

Deprem ve konut fiyatları ilişkisi: konutlarda depreme dayanıklılık ekseninde İstanbul ve İzmir analizleri

Öz

Deprem, zamanı ve şiddeti önceden kesin olarak belirlenemeyen, ani ve yıkıcı sonuçları ile maruz kalan insanların hayatını, gerçekleştiği coğrafyayı ve ekonomiyi doğrudan etkileyen bir doğal afet olarak insanlık tarihinde daima büyük etkilere ve öneme sahip olmuştur. Tarihsel süreçte Türkiye coğrafyası da büyük ve yıkıcı depremlere sahne olmuş, günümüzde ülkemiz bir deprem ülkesi olarak nitelendirilmeye başlamıştır. Bu gerçekten yola çıkarak hazırlanan bu çalışmada amaç, bir deprem ülkesi olan Türkiye’nin iki büyük metropolü olan İstanbul ve İzmir’de konutların depreme dayanıklılığının konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla hazırlanan çalışmanın birinci bölümünde deprem ve konut piyasası ilişkisine yer verilmektedir. Bu bölüm kapsamında iki deprem şehri olan İstanbul ve İzmir’de konutların depreme hazır bulunuşlukları ile konut fiyatlarının ilişkisi incelenmektedir. İkinci bölümde konut fiyatlarının belirleyicileri ile yine bir belirleyici olarak deprem ile ilgili literatür analiz edilmektedir. Son olarak üçüncü bölümde, depreme dayanıklılığın konut fiyatlarına etkilerine dair İstanbul ve İzmir için kesit veri analizlerine yer verilmektedir. Bu bölüm kapsamında, İstanbul’da 380, İzmir’de 280 konutun fiyatları üzerinden değerlendirmeler yapılmaktadır. Elde edilen analiz sonuçlarına göre hem İzmir hem de İstanbul için konut fiyatlarını etkileyen değişkenler şehir merkezine yakınlık, otoparkın varlığı ve denize yakınlık olarak bulunurken; konutların depreme dayanıklılığının konut fiyatları üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisine rastlanmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Deprem
• Konut Fiyatları
• Depreme Dayanıklı Konutlar
• Kesit Veri Analizi

References

1. AFAD. (2023a). Deprem Kataloğu. T.C. İçişleri Bakanlığı Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/event-catalog AFAD. (2023b). Türkiye Bina Deprem Yönetmeliği. T. C. İçişleri Bakanlığı Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı. https://www.afad.gov.tr/
2. Afşar, A., Yılmazel, Ö., & Yılmazel, S. (2017). Konut fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik model ile belirlenmesi: Eskişehir örneği. Selçuk Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 37, 195–205.
3. Akar, S. (2013). Doğal afetlerin kamu maliyesine ve makro ekonomiye etkileri: Türkiye değerlendirmesi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21, 185–206. https://doi.org/10.11611/JMER197
4. Aktürk, İ., & Albeni M. (2002). Doğal afetlerin ekonomik performans üzerine etkisi: 1999 yılında Türkiye’de meydana gelen depremler ve etkileri. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İdari ve İktisadi Bilimler Dergisi, 7(1), 1-18.
5. Ak Çetin, D., & Akpınar, O. (2021). Seferihisar’da konut fiyatlarını etkileyen hedonik model ile belirlenmesi araştırması. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 36(1), 43–59. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.202136104
6. Alas, B., & Ülger, B. C. (2019). The impact of earthquake risk upon housing prices in the Riverbeds: Istanbul sample. Disaster Science and Engineering, 5(1), 1-31.
7. Altun, F. (2018). Afetlerin ekonomik ve sosyal etkileri: Türkiye örneği üzerinden bir değerlendirme. Sosyal Çalışma Dergisi, 2(1), 1–15.
8. Arslanlı, K. Y. (2020). Analysis of house prices: a hedonic model proposal for Istanbul metropolitan area. Journal of Design for Resilience in Architecture & Planning, 1(1), 57–68. https://doi.org/10.47818/DRArch.2020.v1i1004

9. Badurlar, İ. Ö. (2008). Türkiye’de konut fiyatları ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 223–238.
10. Beron, K. J., Murdoch, J. C., Thayer, M. A., & Vijverberg, W. P. M.(1997). An analysis of the housing market before andafter the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Land Economics,73(1), 101-113.Binoy, B. V., Naseer, M. A., & Kumar, P.
11. P. A. (2022). Spatial variation of the determinants affecting urban land value in Thiruvananthapuram, India. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0135 Bir can daha kurtarma umuduyla (2023, Şubat 21). TRT HABER. https://www.trthaber.com/foto-galeri/bir-can-daha-kurtarma-umuduyla-yakinlarinin-cenazesine-dahi-katilmadi/54227/sayfa-1.html
12. Boelhouwer, P., & van der Heijden, H. (2018). The effect of earthquakes on the housing market and the quality of life in the province of Groningen, the Netherlands. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 33, 429-438. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-018-9600-y
13. Bond, S., & Dermisi, S. (2017). Using GIS to measure the impact of the Canterbury earthquakes on house prices in Christchurch, NZ. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 8(2), 123–138. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-05-2015-0027
14. BOUN. (2023, Nisan 3). Büyük Depremler. Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi. http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/2/deprem-bilgileri/buyuk-depremler/
15. Bulut, H., Öner, Y., & İslamoğlu, E. (2015). Samsun ili konut fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik fiyat modeli ile incelenmesi. The Journal of Operations Research, Statistics, Econometrics and Management Information Systems, 3(2), 121–130.
16. Burnett, J. W., & Mothorpe, C. (2021). Human-induced earthquakes, risk salience, and housing values. Resource and Energy Economics, 63(101212). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2020.101212
17. Brookshire, D. S., Thayer, M. A., Tschirhart, J., & Schulze, W. (1985). A test of the expected utility model: evivdence from earthquake risks. Journal of Political Economy, 93(2), 369–389.
18. Cavallo, E., Powell, A., & Becerra, O. (2010). Estimating the direct economic damages of the earthquake in Haiti. The Economic Journal, 163, 298-312.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02378.x
19. Cheung, R., Wetherell, D., & Whitaker, S. (2018). Induced earthquakes and housing markets: evidence from Oklahoma. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 69, 153-166.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.01.004
20. CEDIM. (2020). Earthquake, Doganyol, Turkey, 24 January 2020. Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology. https://www.cedim.kit.edu/download/FDA_Short_Report_Earthquake_Turkey_2020_-1.pdf
21. Coburn, A., & Spence, R. (1992). Earthquake protection. John Wiley & Sons.
22. Coşkun, Y., Seven, Ü., Ertuğrul, M., & Alp, A. (2017). Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey. Housing Studies, 35(1), 50–86. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2017.1363378
23. Çalmaşur, G., & Emre Aysin, M. (2019). Konut fiyatlarına etki eden faktörlerin hedonik modelle belirlenmesi: TRA1 alt bölgesi üzerine bir uygulama. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studiesi, 22, 77–92. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.428897
24. Çiçek, U., & Hatırlı, S. A. (2015). Isparta ilinde konut fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik fiyat modeli ile analizi. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 7(13), 98–114.
25. Daniell, J. E., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., & Vervaeck, A. (2011). The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2235-2011
26. Daşkıran, F. (2015). Denizli kentinde konut talebine etki eden faktörlerin hedonik fiyatlandırma modeli ile tahmin edilmesi. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(37), 850–857.
27. Deng, G., Gan, L., & Hernandez, M. A. (2015). Do natural disasters cause an excessive fear of heights? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake. Journal of Urban Economics, 90, 79-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2015.10.002
28. Dilber, İ., & Sertkaya, Y. (2016). 2008 Finansal krizi sonrası Türkiye’de konut fiyatlarının belirleyicilerine yönelik analiz. Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(1), 11– 30. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.95997
29. Duran, N., & Elhorst, J. P. (2023). Induced earthquakes and house prices: the role of spatiotemporal and global effects. Journal of Geographical Systems. 25, 157-183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-022-00403-8 Endeksa. (2023). https://www.endeksa.com/tr/
30. Er, M., Özdarıcı-Ok, A., & Nefeslioğlu, H. A. (2023). The impact of various geological factors on the real estate valuation using ahp analysis: case studies from Turkey. Environment, Development and Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03008-3
31. Euronews Ekibi. (2023, 17 Mart). Rapor: Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremlerin ekonomiye yükü 103 milyar dolar. Euronews. https://tr.euronews.com/2023/03/17/rapor-kahramanmaras-merkezli-depremlerin-ekonomiye-yuku-103-milyar-dolar
32. Fekrazad, A. (2019). Earthquake-risk salience and housing prices: evidence from California. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 78, 104-113.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2019.01.001 Ge, X. J. (2009). Determinants of house prices in New Zealand. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 15(1), 90–121.
33. Gebeşoğlu, P. F. (2019). House price ındex dynamics in Turkey. JOY, 14, 100–107. Gibbons, S., Heblich, S., & Timmins, C. (2021). Market tremors: shale gas exploration, earthquakes and their ımpact on house prices. Journal of Urban Economics, 122(103313), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103313
34. Gözen, M. Ç., & Bostancı, F. C. (2021). Konut özelliklerinin konut fiyatlarına etkisinin kantil regresyon yöntemi ile incelenmesi: İzmit örneği. Iğdır Üniversitesi SBD, 10(26), 507–532.
35. Güler, İ., Başer, U., & Bozoğlu, M. (2019). Rize ili merkez ilçesinde konut fiyatlarının hedonik fiyat modeliyle değerlemesi. Iğdır Üniversitesi FBE Dergisi, 9(4), 2294-2302.
36. Gündüz, R. (2021, Ağustos, 17). Türkiye’yi Yasa Boğan 17 Ağustos 1999 Depreminin Ağır Bilançosu. Euronews. https://tr.euronews.com/2021/08/17/turkiye-yi-yasa-bogan-17-agustos-1999-depreminin-agir-bilancosu
37. Halkia, G., & Ludwig, L. G. (2022). Household earthquake preparedness in Oklahoma: a mixed methods study of selected municipalities. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 73(102872), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102872
38. Hepsiemlak. (2023). https://www.hepsiemlak.com/
39. Hidano, N., Hoshino, T., & Sugiura, A. (2015). The effect of seismic hazard risk information on property prices: evidence from a spatial regression discontinuity design. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 53, 113-122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2015.05.005
40. Holly, S., & Jones, N. (1997). House prices since the 1940s: cointegration, demography and asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 14(4), 549–565.
41. Huang, Y. (2021). Salience of hazard disclosure and house prices: evidence from Christchurch, New Zealand. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 88(103679, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103679
42. Ikefuji, M., Laeven, R. J. A., Magnus, J. R., & Yue, Y. (2022). Earthquake risk embedded in property prices: evidence from five Japanese cities. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 117(537), 82–93. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.1928512
43. Jaramillo, C. R. (2009). Do natural disasters have long-term effects on growth?. Documento Centor de Estudios Sobre Desarrollo Economico, No. 5334.
44. Jehani, N. A., Mastani, N. A., Saudin, S., & Ab Malek, I. (2020). A study on the relationship between house price index and its determinants in Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Computing, 5(2), 515–522.
45. Jung, J. H., & Smith, G. (2022). Earthquakes and home prices: The Napa and Ridgecrest quakes. Journal of Housing Research, 31 (1), 74-87.https://doi.org/10.1080/10527001.2021.2008093
46. Kawabata, M., Naoi, M., & Yasuda, S. (2022). Earthquake risk reduction and residential land prices in Tokyo. Journal of Spatial Econometrics, 3(5), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43071-022-00020-z
47. Kawawaki, Y., & Ota, M. (1996). The influence of the Great Hanshin – Awaji Earthquake on the local housing market. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 8(2), 220–233.
48. Keskin, B. (2008). Hedonic analysis of price in the Istanbul housing market. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 12(2), 125–138.
49. Keskin, B., Dunning, R., & Watkins, C. (2016). Modelling the impact of earthquake activity on real estate values: a multi-level approach. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 10(1),73– 90. Kim, H., Park, S. W., Lee, S., &
50. Xue, X. (2015). Determinants of house prices in Seoul: a quantile regression approach. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 21(2), 91–113. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2015.1058031
51. Knight Frank. (2021a). Global residential cities index– Q2 2021. Knight Frank. https://content.knightfrank.com/
52. Knight Frank. (2021b). Global residential cities index– Q3 2021. Knight Frank. https://content.knightfrank.com/
53. Koster, H. R. A., & van Ommeren, J. (2015). A shaky business: natural gas extraction, earthquakes and house prices. European Economic Review, 80, 120-139.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.011
54. Kördiş, G., Işık, S., & Mert, M. (2014). Antalya’da konut fiyatlarını etkileyen faktörlerin hedonik fiyat modeli ile tahmin edilmesi. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 28, 103–132.
55. Logan, C. (2017). Quantifying changes in risk perception through house price differentials following the catastrophic Canterbury earthquake event. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 23(1), 51–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2017.1303262
56. Mechler, R. (2003). Macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters. Dünya Bankası Yayınları.
57. Önder, Z., Dökmeci, V., Keskin, B. (2004). The impact of public perception of earthquake risk on Istanbul’s housing market. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 12(2), 181–194.
58. Metz, N. E., Roach, T., Williams, J. A. (2017). The costs of induced seismicity: a hedonic analysis. Economics Letters, 160, 86–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.08.032
59. Modica, M., Zoboli, R., Meroni, F., Pessina, V., Squarcina, T., & Locati, M. (2021). ‘Near miss’ housing market response to the 2012 northern Italy earthquake: The role of housing quality and risk perception. Urban Studies, 58(11), 2293–2309. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020943490
60. Mothorpe, C., & Wyman, D. (2021). What the Frack? The impact of seismic activity on residential property values. Journal of Housing Research, 30(1), 34–58. https://doi.org/10.1080/10527001.2020.1827579
61. Murdoch, J. C., Singh, H., & Thayer, M. (1993). The impact of natural hazards on housing values: The Loma Prieta earthquake. Real Estate Economics, 21(2), 167–184.
62. Nakagawa, M., Saito, M., & Yamaga, H. (2007). Earthquake risk and housing rents: Evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 37, 87–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2006.06.009
63. Naoi, M., Seko, M., & Sumita, K. (2009). Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: evidence before and after massive earthquakes. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39(6), 658-669.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2009.08.002
64. Naoi, M., Sumita, K., & Seko, M. (2010). Estimating consumer valuation of earthquake risk: evidence from Japanese housing markets. International Real Estate Review, 13(2), 117–133.
65. Newbold, P., Carlson, W., & Thorne, B. (1994). Statistics for Business and Economics. Pearson.
66. Özen, K. (2022). Konut fiyatları üzerinde etkili olan sosyo ekonomik unsurların hedonik fiyat modeliyle araştırılması: panel veri analizi. Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(2), 503–522. https://doi.org/10.31463/aicusbed.1027502
67. Pereira, A. S. (2009). The opportunity of a disaster: the economic impact of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake. Journal of Economic History, 69(2), 466–499. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050709000850
68. Posedel, P., & Vizek, M. (2009). House price determinants in transition and EU-15 countries. Post-Communist Economies, 21(3), 327–343. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631370903090640
69. Pulido, J. A. L., Arias-Martelo, C., Jim´enez-Quiroga, C. I., Soloaga, I., Uribe-Sanchez, M., & Guevara-Sanguin, A. (2022). Short- and mid-term effects of the September 19 earthquake in Mexico city on the housing market. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 79, 103178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103178
70. Seko, M. (2019). Valuation of Earthquake Risk in Housing Markets. Housing Markets and Household Behavior in Japan, 19, 177–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3369-9_9
71. Selçuk, F., & Yeldan, E. (2001) On the macroeconomic impact of the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey: a first assessment. Applied Economics Letters, 8(7), 483-488.
72. Selim, H. (2009). Determinants of house prices in Turkey: hedonic regression versus artificial neural network. Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 2843–2852.
73. Shi, S., & Naylor, M. (2023). Perceived earthquake risk in housing purchases. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-023-10012-6
74. Simpson, A. L. (2022). Project Information Document -Turkey Earthquake, Floods and Wildfires Emergency Reconstruction Loan. World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099515101252212235/
75. Singh, R. (2019). Seismic risk and house prices: evidence from earthquake Fault zoning. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 75, 187–209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.02.001
76. Staer, A., & LaCour-Little, M. (2016). Earthquakes and price discovery in the housing market: evidence from New Zealand. International Real Estate Review, 19(4), 493-513.
77. Stern, D. (2006). Explaining UK house price inflation 1971–1989. Applied Economics, 24(12), 1327–1333.
78. Tu, C-H., Andersson, D. E., Shyr, O.F., & Lin, P-H. (2023). Earthquake risk, flooding risk and housing prices: evidence from Taichung, Taiwan. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 16, 923-938. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09513-2
79. Utkucu, M., Durmuş, H., Uzunca, F. & Nalbant, S. (2023). 6 Şubat 2023 Gaziantep (Mw=7.7) ve Elbistan (Mw=7.5) Depremleri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Sakarya Üniversitesi Afet Yönetim Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi ve Jeofizik Mühendisliği Bölümü. https://www.hidropolitikakademi.org/uploads/editor/images/Rapor_Son.pdf
80. Üçdoğruk, Ş. (2001). İzmir ilinde emlak fiyatlarına etki eden faktörler – hedonik yaklaşım. DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 16(2), 149–161. Wilhelmsson, M., Ericson, L., & Winstrand, J. (2011). Regional division and the construction of hedonic house price index in Sweden [Conference Paper]. In 18th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference, Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
81. Yankaya, U., & Çelik, H. M. (2005). İzmir metrosunu konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerinin hedonik fiyat yöntemi ile modellenmesi. DEÜ İİBF Dergisi, 20(2), 61–79.
82. Yayar, R., & Gül, D. (2014). Mersin kent merkezinde konut piyasası fiyatlarının hedonik tahmini. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(3), 87–100.
83. Yayar, R., & Karaca, S. S. (2014). Konut fiyatlarına etki eden faktörlerin hedonik modelle belirlenmesi:TR83 bölgesi örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, 14(4), 509–518.
84. Zaabi, Y. H. A., & Bekele, G. (2019). The house price dynamics and the macro-economy: an empirical perspective of UAE [Conference Paper]. International Conference on Advances in Business, Management and Law (ICABML). 143