Applying the kalman filter model to forecast shoreline positions: A case study in Şile, İstanbul

Abstract

Coastal zones are remarkably productive and diverse environments on Earth, yet they are also highly vulnerable ecosystems. Therefore, examining both temporal and spatial variations in shorelines, as well as forecasting future shoreline position, is critical for ensuring the sustainability of coastal zones. In this study, historical shoreline change of the Şile (between western part of Şile port and eastern part of the Kumbaba Beach) was analyzed using End Point Rate (EPR), Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) statistics of Digital Shoreline Change Analyses System (DSAS). Future shoreline forecasting was estimated using Kalman Filter method within DSAS tool. To analyze the historical shoreline changes in Şile, 18 shoreline data sets were generated from Google Earth Pro spanning the period from 2002 to 2021. The statistical result of the study indicates that the maximum shoreline progression of Şile between 2002 and 2021 was 41.3 m for NSM and 2.6 m/yr for LRR, while the maximum shoreline regression was -26.2 m for NSM and -1.3 m/yr for EPR. The projected future shoreline for Şile suggests that the most substantial shoreline advancement is anticipated to occur between 2031 and 2041, particularly in designated areas such as zone I, zone II, and zone III. Conversely, significant shoreline regression is forecasted to transpire in zone IV during the same periods. As a result, the shoreline of Şile has witnessed notable shoreline alterations throughout its history, and it is expected to continue experiencing significant changes in the future.

Keywords

• Shoreline change
• Shoreline Prediction
• Kalman Filter
• Şile
• Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS).

Kıyı çizgisi pozisyonlarını tahmin etmek için kalman filtresi modelinin uygulanması: Şile, İstanbul örneği

Öz

Kıyı bölgeleri, yeryüzünün en verimli ve çeşitli alanlarıdır, fakat aynı zamanda oldukça kırılgan bir ekosisteme sahiptir. Bu nedenle, kıyı şeritlerindeki hem zamansal hem de mekânsal değişimlerin incelenmesi ve gelecekteki kıyı şeridi konumunun tahmin edilmesi, kıyı bölgelerinin sürdürülebilirliğinin sağlanması açısından kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada Şile'nin tarihsel kıyı şeridi değişimi (Şile limanın batısı ve Kumbaba Plajının doğu kıyısı), Dijital Kıyı Şeridi Değişim Analiz Sisteminin (DSAS), Uç Nokta Oranı (EPR), Net Kıyı Şeridi Hareketi (NSM) ve Doğrusal Regresyon Oranı (LRR) istatistikleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Gelecekteki kıyı şeridi tahmini, DSAS aracındaki Kalman Filtresi yöntemi ile belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sahasının tarihsel kıyı çizgisi değişiminin belirlenmesinde, 2002 ve 2021 yılları arasında Google Earth pro uydu görüntülerinden üretilmiş 18 veri setinden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışmanın istatistiksel sonucu Şile'nin 2002–2021 yılları arasında maksimum kıyı şeridi ilerlemesinin NSM için 41.3 m ve LRR için 2.6 m/yıl olduğunu, maksimum kıyı şeridi gerilemesinin ise NSM için 26.2 m ve EPR için 1.3 m/yıl olduğunu göstermektedir. Şile için öngörülen gelecekteki kıyı şeridi, en önemli kıyı şeridi ilerlemesinin 2031 ile 2041 yılları arasında, özellikle bölge I, bölge II ve bölge III gibi belirlenmiş alanlarda gerçekleşecektir. Tersine, aynı dönemlerde IV. bölgede kıyı şeridinde önemli bir gerilemenin meydana geleceği tahmin edilmektedir. Sonuç olarak, Şile kıyı şeridi tarihi boyunca önemli kıyı şeridi değişikliklerine sahne olmuştur ve gelecekte de önemli kıyı değişikliklerinin yaşanmaya devam etmesi beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kıyı şeridi değişimi
• Kıyı Hattı Tahmini
• Kalman Filtresi
• Şile
• Dijital Kıyı Şeridi Analiz Sistemi (DSAS)

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