Complex urban system, understanding urban growth concepts, and urban modeling techniques

Abstract

Urbanization is a process increasing progressively worldwide. However, with the urbanization process, concerns have been raising regarding environmental, ecological, and social structure. The speed and intensity of urbanization has effects on changing of land use pattern. Therefore, to be able to understand changing processes and predict change rate, density, and changing pathways in urban area, it is crucial to investigate effects causing changes in land-use pattern. Especially, these factors should be determined for the estimation and modelling of future trends of urban land use changes and its ecological impacts. Because of their complexity and interactions, these factors should be analyzed systematically. Urban system has rather complex structure. Rapid developments in modelling techniques thanks to Geographic Information System (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and particularly new mathematical methods provide to obtain and analyze of data in various spatio-temporal scales, understand a complex system or a phenomenon, and measure or show the complexity. Urban modelling techniques may allow to measure more realistic measurements of propagation area of a complex urban system/territorial size, the physical development stages and size of each stage. Besides, these techniques will open new horizons on spatial analyses and contribute to make projections determining in spatial development areas.

Keywords

• Urbanization
• urban growth system
• complex urban systems
• modeling techniques
• urban models

Karmaşık kent sistemi, kentsel büyüme kavramlarının anlaşılması ve kent modelleme teknikleri

Öz

Kentleşme dünya genelinde çok hızlı gelişen bir süreçtir. Ancak, kentleşme ile birlikte çevresel, ekolojik ve sosyal yapıdaki kaygılar artmaktadır. Kentleşmenin hızı ve yoğunluğu, arazi kullanım paterninin değişmesinde etkilidir. Değişim sürecinin anlaşılması, kent bölgesindeki arazi değişiminin hızı, yoğunluğu ve izlediği yolun tahmin edilmesi için arazi kullanım değişimine neden olan faktörlerin araştırılması önemlidir. Özellikle kent arazi kullanım değişimini ve ekolojik etkilerinin gelecek trendlerini tahmin etme ve modellemede bu faktörlerin belirlenmesi gereklidir. Ancak bu faktörlerin karmaşık olması ve karşılıklı etkileşimi bunların sistematik olarak analiz edilmelerini gerektirmektedir. Kent sistemi oldukça karmaşık bir yapıya sahiptir. Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS), Uzaktan Algılama (UA) ve özellikle de yeni matematiksel yöntemler sayesinde modelleme tekniklerinde meydana gelen hızlı gelişmeler, çeşitli zamansal ve mekânsal ölçeklerde verilerin elde edilip analiz edilmesini, karmaşık sistemin anlaşılmasını, sözü edilen karmaşıklığın ölçülmesi ve gösterilmesini sağlamıştır. Karmaşık bir kent sisteminin yayılım alanı/alansal büyüklüğü, fiziksel gelişim evreleri ve her bir gelişim evresinin büyüklüğü ve büyüme miktarları kentsel modelleme teknikleri sayesinde en gerçek şekilde ölçülebilmektedir. Aynı zamanda, bu yöntemler mekân analizlerini farklı bir boyuta taşıyarak mekânsal büyüme alanlarının belirlenmesine, gelecek öngörülerin oluşturulmasına büyük katkılar sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kentleşme
• kentsel büyüme sistemi
• karmaşık kent sistemi
• modelleme teknikleri
• kent modelleri

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